I know, I know, if something appears too good to be true, it probably is! However I could counter that with if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck – its a, well you know what I mean.
The problem I have with this test is that the outcome appears too obvious and every time that happens Gamblor, the god of gambling strikes in the most unpleasant ways.
So before we rush in to this test let’s take a little time to put the facts on the board.
1. India can’t bat – somehow between the 1st test and now their previously cock-a-hoop batting line-up has lost all confidence, can’t move their feet and cant score a run. Their last 3 innings totals have been 178, 152 and 161.
2. They still haven’t worked out that our number one spinner doesn’t spin the ball – if you are reading this MS and Co – play him as a very slow medium and wack him to all parts of Surrey – he can’t bowl.
3. Our pace attack when the ball moves is the best in the World – bar none, and you have to take 20 wickets to win a test match and we are more equipped with our pace bowlers than any other country to do that – if they are all fit.
4. MS Dhoni had a nightmare as a Captain in the last test – pointless singles given away to long on and long off to new batters, no pressure applied to players who are fighting for their places, repeated short pitched bowling by guys who aren’t quick and were swinging the ball and no sign of that changing.
5. The most important – man for man we are just better than them and we know it!
6. You will note I haven’t talked about the wicket or playing conditions at all – the reason for that is that on current form whatever they serve up and I don’t expect it to be a square turner, at the moment we are better equipped to deal with any eventualities.
7. I own a Kia and this ground is called the Kia Oval – that point may be as important as the previous six as any good gambler knows.
What does all this mean? – it means that if the weather doesn’t interfere then England win. Now comes the tricky bit. I have been on Accuweather, the Met Office and Bill’s mum (where anyone who has played county cricket knows the rain comes from) and they all confirm that we are looking at no more than a little shower or two on Sunday. So much so Bill’s Mum is doing all her sheets and pillowcases on Saturday and hanging them all out to dry.
So here goes – we are going Maximum nap on England!!! There I said it. In the good old days of the 90’s my two friends Russell, Chris and I did our brains backing England for far larger amounts than we would ever consider now – so much so we each have a pact, born out of the loss of blood,health and money; that if anyone of us ever goes nap England cricket the other two are to beat the third up. I have rung both and the planets have aligned and we are all in agreement. So avoid this if you want but our recommendation is:
Back England to win – 12 units @ 5/4 with Sportingbet – C’mon England!!
