The champions are collapsing
Age shall not weary them – well the top four in World tennis have been in a lot of battles and collectively won and lost a lot of wars and they now have scars and injuries to show for it. Rafa is injured and not playing, Roger pieces himself together with tape to get on to the courts, Murray goes from one operation to another and even Novak gets beaten these days. Is it time for a change to the world order? Maybe
At Wimbledon the young guns showed that they can challenge the seemingly immovable top 4 of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray but in the end the old guard who have won 18 out of the last 19 majors were victorious, at the end running on fumes and mental strength alone to get through. Here we look at whether there will be a shock this week or if your money is still safer with the big four, a job made a little easier with the injury problems to Rafa, who is unable to play.
The Wimbledon champion and 7 time major winner is the short priced favourite to claim the title as he did in 2011. Despite the early exit in Cincinnati he has the both the quality and the fitness to win at Flushing Meadows. The disappointment in Cincinatti may turn out to be a huge advantage, or was that how he designed it? Whilst Roger Federer was the winner there nis no doubting he used an awful lot of energy that will be very much necessary in the sauna-like arena in New York. Novak’s form this year, despite winning Wimbledon, has been less than the electric form he had in 2011 and he could be facing Murray amongst others in the quarter and so this may not be his year. But his quality means he can never be discounted. He is 6/4 with BetFred to win the tournament and if he decided to have a “mental holiday in Cincinatti he could well be some value for the big one but there is no doubting he is more vulnerable than he has been for some time as is reflected in his price.
He has easily been the best in the world in the past few months and in my opinion was unlucky not to win Wimbledon. With Novak, Rafa and Andy all having problems in the past few months this is surely his best shot at another major to cap his brilliant career. The issue for this tournament and has been for the last few years, is his fitness. Is a 33 year old with as many miles on the clock able to win a major with such fitness kings as Grigor Dimitrov in the way? In my opinion, I think he can if he shows the form of Cincinnatti and he can become the 3rd oldest male major winner of all time. He is available at 11/4 with Bet 365 and is worth a punt.
Where do we begin with Andy? The former US Open champion has had an injury-stricken and devastating year. He has struggled to contend realistically since the Wimbledon glory last year. But if he can get his serve going and find some of the form from last year he could get the win. Most likely facing Djokovic in the quarters means a very harsh draw for the no. 8 seed. He isn’t our tip but if you are tempted to be patriotic he is available at 13/2 with Bet Victor.
Who would have thought that we would be talking about Stan Wawrinka being a huge contender for his second, yes second, major of the year? He was lethal at the Australian Open and without Rafa and with Andy and Djokovic stuttering to find form, the only big threat is an experienced but with questionable stamina- his fellow Swiss Roger Federer. The hard court at Flushing Meadows should favour his hard- hitting style and he can capitalise on the top four’s weakness like he did in Austrailia. His draw means he will have to face Raonic in the quarters but then a tired Djokovic who has had to play either Murray or Tsonga in the quarter final. He is a shoe in to reach the final however. Back him e/w at 14/1 with Boylesports.
The 23 year old is a rising star in the game and his dazzling performances this year have not gone unnoticed. He is tipped to be the jewel to the crown of Eastern European talent and take Novak’s baton. He has performed well at majors this year with a last 8 appearance in Australia and finishing in the semi-finals at Wimbledon after an emphatic performance against Andy Murray. He will shine again however it is unlikely he will pass Roger Federer in the quarter final. If he does somehow beat Roger he has a fairly easy semi-final with only really David Ferrer to pose as stiff opposition. Bet at 16/1 with BetFred for him to win if you think he can achieve that test. If he gets past Roger we will be with him for the rest of the tournament.
The summary for us is that this is a stroke players surface. You need pace and class to win and out pre-tournament tips are as follows.
Our bets :
3 units to win US Open, Roger Federer @ 11/4 Bet 365
2 units e/w to Stan Wawrinka @ 14/1 Boylesports