Our Rory Crowe, who tips up winner after winner in the tennis, pleaded to have the chance to put his tips up for the Masters and so he has in a previous post. He is probably near the mark with his 3 against the field, however he doesn’t have the pedigree – yet, of having tipped up last years winner so this is the view that counts – or does it?
I have a strong view that dissimilar to any other year the winner is in the first 6 in the betting and I also believe that 4 of those 6 will finish in the top 10, so we will adapt our punting accordingly.
Who are our 4 against the field.
Irish Hopes are high
1. Rory McIlroy – no course sets up better for him. He hits his driver flat out on every tee and he can do that without fear on this course. That then flows through all of his game and a confident McIlroy is a very dangerous one.
2 units win @ 6/1 with Sportingbet and 2 units top 10 finish @ 8/11
2. Jordan Speith – no shock in me writing that he is destined for stardom. Every golf writer has written just that and last weekend he showed he is in great form. My fear is that i think Augusta takes some getting to know on the greens and he didnt look a natural when there were big slopes. Maybe if its really quick 2 putts will get the job done most times. If so he will perform well.
2 units win @ 11/1 with Bet 365 and 2 units top 10 finish @ 10/11 with Sportingbet
Our Nap – lots of form and lots of class
3. Jason Day – is proven in everything at this course, except winning and he is my big tip for glory. His game is in good nick and he knows how to get it around here and how to get it up and down. His time is now and I expect him to don the green jacket come Sunday night.
2 units win @ 12/1 with Bet 365 and 2 units top 10 finish @ 7/5 with Sportingbet
4. Jimmy Walker – somewhat overlooked in the betting. He has one heck of a game. He showed he is no back number when it comes to mental strength, in the Ryder Cup and he also knows his way around Magnolia Drive.
2 units e/w @ 22/1 with Bet 365 and 2 units top 10 finish @ 2/1 with Sportingbet
The Crabbies Grand National – Day 1 Preview
It seems Cheltenham was a long time ago now and here we are in to spring and another fabulous 3 days of jumping.
Each day we will put up our selections in each race and the best available price. Today the forecast ground is good to soft and from experience of years gone by this takes some getting. The reason is that it’s a flat track where they go quickly and at the end there isn’t much left in the tank. So our tips take that in to account.
1.40 – Vibrato Valtat – Paid for going with Un De Sceaux at a suicidal pace and for that reason will reverse the placings with Josses Hill today.
2 units e/w @ 9/4 with Boylesports
2.15 Hargam – much the best of these and will get stronger. Will enjoy a quick pace and will have plenty left at the end.
3 units win @ 4/5 with Bet 365
2.50 Silviniaco Conti – My favourite jumping horse. I abandoned him at Cheltenham because that just doesn’t work for him. However no horse traveled or jumped better during the gold cup and he really is a joy to watch.
Today on a flat track and coming back a furlong he will show why he is so good. Get on – my nap
3 units e/w @ 3/1 with Bet 365
3.25 Rock on Ruby. I realise he is taking on champions but he too is a champion and this trip is his best. In my opinion he has looked almost as good as ever and his best will be too good for these. Campaigned with this in mind he will be razor sharp this afternoon.
2 units e/w @ 4/1 with Bet 365
4.05 Big Fellas Thanks – jumped and traveled really well in the Beecher Chase last year and just ran out of stamina. I think connections have had this race in mind for some time. Has had 42 days off and this could well be his swan song.
1 unit e/w @ 8/1 with Boylesports
4.40 Ted Veale – struggled to get a decent position at Cheltenham and was always chasing the race. His shrewd trainer will have him right today and I think he is very attractive at this price.
1 unit e/w @ 14/1 with Bet 365
5.15 Lac Fontana – I think this is a horse who is crying out for a longer trip. He also has a touch of class and may be a bit ahead of these over this longer trip.
1 unit e/w @ 16/1 with Bet 365
US Men’s Clay Court Championship – Time to cash in
Battle of the Minnows
Without Novak Djokovic the underdogs of tennis have a chance to impress and shock in Houston. This tournament, being a lot more unpredictable, means much better odds- great for us! But the quality will still be high as these players look to break into the group of the world’s best.
Feliciano Lopez
A strong start to the year featuring a final shows a potential of bright prospects for the Spaniard. This could be his breakthrough tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lift the crown. John Isner, Fernando Verdasco and many more stand in his way to the final but he is in form and confident, with nothing to lose. That is a great set of credentials in a tennis player. He could make the final at least and who knows he could win it! He knows the turf appearing in a previous semi-final and he can make it one better this time.
Kevin Anderson
The South-African with the huge serve and massive frame to go with it, has made a modest start to 2015 but he could really kick on quite like Lopez. There were glimpses in his game against Murray that suggested this could be his time. He has an extremely fortunate draw and is the stand out player in his half. I’m not sure how he would fare in the final but he should walk to the final providing there are no upsets. Bautista Agut will be the only threat and then he could come up against our other tip, Lopez..
Our Tips
Lopez 2 units e/w @ 13-2 with Sportingbet
Anderson 2 units e/w @ 5-1 with Sportingbet
Cheltenham Preview Day 4
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle
Yet another cracking race. 17 runners is about average for this race and its a race where you need stamina and speed and a sound jumping technique. A tough ask for four year olds. I get this down to five horses. Devilment who looks to have any amount of potential and for that reason worries me given he is a 94 rated hurdler, Beltor, so impressive last time out that he threw a real spanner in to the ante post backers thinking and has a hood on tomorrow to keep him calm, Hargam a course and distance winner, who has put most away this year, Pain Au Chocolat who best performance was his latest and Peace & Co who blitzed his opponents in his run one back and then in a steadily run race race still triumphed at Cheltenham in January. I think he will like the speed of the race, I think he stays and I think he will win.
Our bet : 2 units e/w Peace & Co @ 3/1 with Sportingbet
2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle.
Just what we need after the Triumph, a 26 runner handicap where we find out which trainer has cheated best. Don’t think I have ever backed the winner of this race. Probably wont this time. Here are my four against the field. Wicklow Brave, Princely Conn, Cheltenian and Sort it Out. If Max’s Dynamite wins then I am giving up completely.
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novice
I like this race a lot. Not sure what happens to these horses when they run here, probably potential National candidates when they grow up but for this race it’s great. Blaklion looked like the winner of this race in December but then he got beat, Definitely Red has won over this course and distance and needs to be respected, No More Heroes looked likely at Navan when he disposed of Shaneshill who ran so well on Tuesday and Despite a bad ride Value at Risk looked all heart when he was narrowly beaten in January.
3.20 The Betfred Gold Cup
No we are really talking, firstly what magnificent horses these are, secondly I cant wait. I have never see an 18 runner Gold Cup. It’s just amazing. If you have your heart set on backing any of them, except the French Runner, then I would’nt put you off it. I love Silviniaco Conti but I just don’t think he gets this trip and track. Boston Bob, Sam Winner and On His Own may just be slightly below what we need to win. Many Clouds has done everything right this year and Lord Windemere brought his best game here last year when he won and maybe will do it again. I have settled on these two against the field. I thought earlier in the year Road to Riches showed outstanding determination to win and he will be fresh tomorrow and AP McCoy told me when I interviewed him at Bangor that if we had good ground he would win on Carlingford Lough. Surely we can’t ignore that.
4.00 St James’s Place Foxhunter
I have one horse that I think wins this, that horse is Aerial. I respect On the Fringe and surely Nina Carberry deserves a bit of luck after the Cross Country and how can you ignore the claims of Current Event. Its always a tough race to predict but I am going to wade in with the best jockey and the best horse.
Our bet : 1 unit e/w Aerial 14/1 with Skybet and 1 unit e/w On the Fringe @ 8/1 Sportingbet
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional
Only one favourite has won this race since its inception 8 years ago. Interestingly weight appears to be little barrier and its more about an improving profile. Forethefunofit sticks out as a possible, Roi Des Francs needs a careful look as does On Tour who only has one blot on his copybook. Its a fiendishly diffcult race and it would be churlish to think we have the definitive answer so lets back two for interest.
1 unit e/w Forethefunofit @ 16/1 with Betvictor and 1 unit e/w On Tour @ 18/1 with Bet 365
5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
The perfect ending to this festival is Tony McCoy riding Ned Buntline to victory on his last race at Cheltenham and I’m not prepared to bet against him. He just does this stuff. I love irony as well and there would be a massive does of this if Bold Henry won, which is one of his employers other rides of which he would have had a choice. Problem is I cant get away from Grumetti. Just keeps looking out at me from the page. So our last bet for this amazing meeting is:
1 unit e/w Grumetti @ 20/1 with Sportingbet
Cheltenham Preview Day 3
Can Mr Saturday be Mr Thursday? We move on to some more great jumping on Thursday with some real highlights yet again after two exhilarating days. Today we have to look deeper in to the races to find those a little less obvious as this is one tough card – or will Paul Nicholls help us out today
1.30 JLT Novices Chase
Just the nine runners but maybe, for me, the race of the day. Its hard rule out any horse, with the possible exceptions of Tango De Juilley and Splash of Ginge who I fear may not be quite good enough, although anyone who saw the latter power up this hill in January may think otherwise. Im putting a line through The Tullow Tank on the grounds that his jumping isn’t good enough yet. Irish Saint is honest but perhaps not the type to win this race and Colour Squadron would be a surprise. So I have it down to Apache Stronghold, Valseur Lido, Vautor and Ptit Zig. I have been supporting Ptit Zig all year and was well impressed with his demolition job of Champagne West at Cheltenahm and I think he just might be something special so with his stable firing that’s my tip against the festival banker Vautor in a very open race.
Our bet 4 units e/w Ptit Zig at 7-2 with Bet 365
2.05 Pertemps Network Final
They dont get any easier and this really is a toughy. Pineau DeRe, the national winner, ran brilliantly here last year and takes a similar route this year but shouldn’t be quick enough to win, I have a short list of about 6, who fit the bill and need to get this down to just two. They are Aqalim, The Tourard Man, Katkeau, Join the Clan, Big Easy, and Dawalan. Now the tough bit, two from this lot. i am not going to be put off by big weights and Im going for smooth travelling, tough horses from in form stables.
Our bet : 1 unit E/W Big Easy @ 11-1 and Dawalan @ 14-1 both with Betvictor
2.40 The Ryanair Chase
Another terrific race. 14 quality horses that you would be proud to own. The class acts to my way of thinking are, Balder Success, at this trip, Eduard, Foxrock, and Ma Filleule. I would be surprised if the winner wasn’t from within this group. I may have wrongly overlooked Ballycasey but I just don’t think he is up to winning this and Uxizandre doesn’t strike me as the most straight forward despite the application of headgear for this race for the first time, although this tactic at Cheltenham often has a dramatic effect – for the good!!. I am a huge Balder Success fan and given how poor the Champion Chase was I bet connections are sad they didnt go down that route. That said compensation is possible here and I fancy him to be too good for these.
Our bet 4 units E/W Balder Success @ 15-2 with Betvictor
3.20 The World Hurdle
I dont remember seeing this many running in this race for a long time. Normally that’s a sign that we have no outstanding horse, like Big Bucks, etc, which means its again an open race and this one certainly is. I see this being fought out by Saphir Du Rheu, Lieutenant Colonel, Un Temps Pour Tout, Zarkandar and Blue Fashion. I am going to back two in this race in what is not a vintage year for stayers – at least not yet!!!
4.00 Brown Advisory Plate
With just the 24 in this race it is simply the hardest race on the card on a day with lots of hard races. I like Rajdhani Express who is a course and distance winner and simply doesnt get 3 miles. I just wish the owner wouldnt insist on putting his son up on this horse – like Long Run he could be so much better and then I would be backing him. I really like Un Ace for Kim Bailey, who is in great form and has a talented young chaser on his hands. David Pipe has Monetaire lurking at the bottom of the weights as well. Bally legend could run a big race for Caroline Keevil and Edgardo Sol could well be primed for his inform trainer Emma Lavelle.
4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge
If we are in trouble when we get to this race then its a real problem. They go 9-1 the field and its tough to rule too many out or more definitely too many in. Gold Bullet for Tom Taffe is the obvious starting place as he looks to be laid out for this race by his master trainer. If he has a chink in his armour its inexperience. Champagne James must have every chance but again he doesnt have a huge amount of miles on the clock either. Garrahalish looks interesting and if he settles and then stays could give them a lot to do at a massive price. Ericht looked like he was coming back to form last time and maybe this is the right race at the right time. How about Just a Par for Mr Saturday – Paul Nichols, who seems to have loads of potential.
Our bet : 1 unit E/W Just a Par @ 16-1 and 1 unit E/W Garrahalish @ 33-1 with Betvictor
Cheltenham Day 2 Preview
A great opening day. Its the Willie Mullins show. We, like most, did well yesterday and now we need to kick on. Today looks tougher but we need to be clever and stick to our festival game plan.
1.30 Neptune Novices
Amazingly, this race, like the Supreme has fewer runners than I can ever remember but I don’t think that makes it any easier. With only 10 in it I think I can confidently rule just 2 out of it. I also think some have the beating on form like Parlour Games over Vyta Du Roc and I dont expect that to be reversed. Anteros probably isn’t quite good enough and may need further, I have put a line through Snow Falcon and Warrantor on the grounds that they cant improve enough to win this. On his run at Bangor which I saw I don’t think that Beast of Burden is quick enough to win this race and Rebecca Curtis, already a day 1 winner does, one of us will be right, probably her. He is a beautiful big horse but looks slow. So that leaves me with 5. Im going to ignore the claims of Outlander as I just haven’t heard the right things from the normally vocal Mullins camp – and they cant have another world class hurdler in the camp, surely. Ordo Ab Chao worries me but I think, again he needs further. He is a class act but may not be quick enough on this ground. So I have it down to two and they are the two I am going to back. Interestingly Nichols Canyon beat Windsor Park last time but on this better ground and slightly longer trip I expect the form to be reversed. I think Windsor Park is very good but at these prices I’m backing them both.
Our bet 2 units E/W both Nichols Canyon @ 7/2 and Windsor Park @ 5/1 with Betvictor.
2.05 RSA Chase
I love this race. They go a ridiculous gallop over 3 miles and for many the festival banker is Don Poli. Of course he is very good but I need to look outside the obvious as I am not convinced at these skinny prices. You ignore festival winning trainer Neil Mulholland and the Young Master at your peril – and Southfield Theatre brings strong credentials to the race but I’m not convinced. However my favourite horse in the race is Kings Palace and I think this is David Pipes best chance of success. In a nine runner race he looks the best value having shown, in my opinion, the best and most improved form. So here it is – we are betting like a Lion
Our bet : 4 units e/w @ 4/1 Kings Palace with Sportingbet
2.40 Coral Cup
The toughest handicap in racing. I wont pretend to know more than any trainer on which horse may be the best in, as there is no doubt a real lurker here. However I am going to try and find four that fit the profile. That being: Not run for at least 32 days, Won between 2m2 and 2m6, Scored at Class 3 or better, Won a race earlier in the season, and aged 5-7. That gives me these : Clondaw Kaempfer, UnAtout, Plinth and Baradari. After that it doesnt get too much easier.
I will rule out Clondaw after this failed chasing career and weight to carry. Un Atout may not be back to his best, if he was he could carry them arround so I am going with Plinth and Baradari
Our bet 1 unit e/w both Plinth and Baradari at 33/1 and 18/1 respectively with Skybet.
3.20 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
Because of injury concerns to Sprinter Sacre this is now the best betting race at the festival. So out of the 11 runners, who can win. It’s this simple. Sprinter Sacre, Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy, Special Tiara and Mr Mole.
So lets unravel these. Mr Mole – too quirky, Special Tiara, too quick, Champagne Fever, too unproven at this level. That leaves Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre. All three make good winners. My feeling is that Dodging Bullets and Sire De Grugy are very good but not good enough to beat a 90% returned to form Sprinter Sacre and I think he is better than that now. I think he can just jump and run quicker than any chaser ever born. I also think he is telling his works rider and Barry Geraghty everything they want to know now and that’s why he has shortened from 3/1 to 5/2 in the last week. I may be wrong but if he is back you are backing a 1/2 shot at 11/4ish. He wont fall so lets back him each way.
Our bet 4 units E/W at 11/4 with Sportingbet Sprinter Sacre.
4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country
We have backed the winner of this race for the last 3 years. However thats not saying much as with the exception of Big Shu they were well found by most. This is the biggest field I have seen for what is a specialist race. I wasnt expecting to see Any Currency as favourite, particularly at 12 years of age. I thought I had found one that others might have missed. However I was wrong. I like the look of three. Any Currency, Quantativeeasing and Sire Collonges. Not an easy one and something to calm you down after the event of the day.
1 unit E/W Any Currency @ 6/1 and 1 unit E/W Quantativeeasing @ 9/1 both with Betvictor
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile
So to win this we need a horse whose sire has won a Group 1 on the flat. Won one of the last two starts and carrying less than 10-13. How many does that leave us – Interestringly only two : Sebastien Beach and he ran a stinker last time out so that theory seems to be out the window with him and Beataboutthebush. So thats where our pin falls. He bolted up last time, has had a decent break and is a huge price.
Our bet : 1 unit E/W Beatabouthebush @ 25/1 with Betvictor
5.15 Festival Bumper
No surprise to see Bordini at the head of the betting for Willie Mullins, who can possibly beat him in a race he almost owns. Moonracer might give him something to think about for David Pipe. I know they fancy their chances and they may be right. Vigil for Dermot Weld has a years experience behind him and may well benefit from that and we need to respect any Henry De Bromhead runner and this one, Supasundae could be the best yet.
Cheltenham Day 1
We wait all year for it to come around, the greatest horse racing festival in the world and now its the eve of Day 1 somehow I don’t want it to start. I want to just savour these moments, the expectation, the theories, the possibilities. Right now I am staring a fortune in the face, what will it be come 6.00pm on Friday. However, we are ready and we will succeed. So on to day 1.
1.30 The Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle
The Cheltenham roar is something not to be forgotten and this race signals the start of battle. Only 12 declared which takes a bit of the pressure off the real novices. We need a horse that’s won at least 50% of its races, run within the last 52 days, won last time out and no surprise we have a few of those.
1. The talking horse – Douvan. All talk or the real deal? Willie Mullins who has just the four in this says this is his best and that whilst relatively unproven, having beaten nothing special so far, he is the best they have. So assuming no errors we can now put a line through the rest of his. The question is – are you prepared to take a short price about potential? Also he hasn’t run for 59 days – important – maybe.
2. L’Ami Serge – won 60% of his races and looked terrific when doing so, winning his Grade 1 by a massive 14 lengths. Hasn’t raced for 66 days and possibly this ground might be a little quicker than he has raced on but he has some engine.
3. Jollyallan – Won 4 of 6 but as the third favourite in the race concerns me as he was beaten last time out in a listed event and we need a last time out winner.
4. Qewy – Inexperienced over hurdles but is a 102 rated flat horse who bolted up last time at Newbury. Ran in a field of 13 so does have some experience of a field this size – will he stay and will he jump. If he does he could be quite a handful.
Verdict : Douvan too short to fancy and I’m not sure the others are brilliant. I will go with Qewy at a big price against the favourite.
Our bet: 1 unit e/w Qewy @ 12/1 with Sportingbet
2.05 The Racing Post Arkle Trophy.
I wont spend a lot of time on this race as its very simple. If Un De Sceaux doesnt make a serious mistake – which he did when he tipped up at Thurles, then he wins. He is breathtaking. So the question is – do you want to take 8/13 about his chances of getting around in an 11 runner field over stiff fences and in front of a hugely expectant crowd.
Answer – yes, the best chase jockey in the world will get him around.
Our bet : 6 units win Un De Sceaux at 8-13 with Sportingbet
2 units Forecast Un De Sceaux to beat Vibrato Valtat.
2.40 Ultima Business Solutions Chase
I’m looking for a horse who has won over 3 miles, who finished at least placed in its last two runs carrying less than 11-2 and not run more than 5 times this season. So who fits the bill. I have it down to five. Ned Stark, Indian Castle, Gevrey Chambertin According to Trev and What a Warrior. Now how do we get this down to 2.
The two I am going for are Ned Stark, whose profile looks like the type of horse who just keeps improving and was strong in the finish at Wetherby and Gevrey Chambertin, whose trainer is in great nick and who performed better than our other selection on a strict line of form, when winning at Newbury latest.
Our bet : 1 unit e/w both Ned Stark @ 8/1 and Gevrey Chambertin @ 14/1 both with Sportingbet
3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle.
What a race this could be – what a performance we could see. Hurricane Fly has looked much better this year than last year and whilst 10 years of age his trainer says he is better than ever. Look out everyone else. He is a proven fabulous hurdler with an amazing engine. The New One performed miracles to get as close as he did after nearly being brought down last year and better ground is even better for him than what we have seen him on this year. Kitten Rock and Arctic Fire in any other year would be in anyone’s reckoning – and then there’s Faugheen, the machine. I don’t think I have seen anything since Istabraq looks as smooth as him. Maybe he doesn’t jump as well but I think on the flat he would be a 115, 2 miler. Such an engine, such grace and such power. Can you see where I am going with this? Heads on the block I say he wins on the bridle
Our bet: 8 units win Faugheen @ 5/4 with Skybet
4.00 OLBG Mares Hurdle
Annie Power is all the rage and rightly so. She looks fabulous. I don’t know how to say she gets beaten on paper but something tells me she will. She has been off for nearly a year and she was beaten here last year in a World Hurdle that I didn’t think was very good. She may well win but at her best RPR of 155 I have Glens Melody only 2lbs behind her on her best, which interestingly was her last run. Her best run was her last – remember that. That tells me she is still improving and she ran Quevega, the standing dish, to 3/4l, when not as good as now. So it’s not a brilliant argument but I will take the bigger price against the banker.
Our bet : 2 units e/w @ 6/1 with Betvictor, Glenns Melody
4.40 Toby Balding National Hunt Chase
This four miler is a terrific race with lots laid out for it. Not easy and I think I have only backed the winner once in about 6 years. So here goes. I need a horse who finished first or second or better in its last two runs. I like Cheltenham success at some time in their career, must have won over 3 miles as a minimum and needs to be 7-8 years of age. Who are the early candidates? Thunder and Roses, Very Wood, Sego Success, Doing Fine.
My two against the field in this race are Very Wood and Thunder and Roses
5.15 Chaps Restaurant Barbados Novices Chase
A really tough one at the end of the day and the betting has it about right. We tipped up Generous Ransom when he won here latest, Thomas Crapper looks like a real improver, Bold Henry doesn’t jump great and for that reason we cant back him but if he did he would win by 20 lengths and Keltus has the look of a horse laid out for this race. At bigger prices you could make a case for Monkey Kingdom who goes well fresh, Cold March who could be a sleeper and Irish Cavalier whose trainer might be running in to form.
I need two in this race and I have plumped for Thomas Crapper and Generous Ransom. Not very original but Generous Ransom was left in front too soon when he won and is good for a few more pounds than what he got as the placed horses closed and Thomas Crapper who seems to be getting better and stronger.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament- Rotterdam
Reacting to the disappointment.
The underdogs were overwhelmed in Melbourne with Novak Djokovic winning in emphatic style. Players including Murray and Wawrinka who the Serb demolished now head to Rotterdam in order to get their season back on track and add to their bulging pockets of money. Having said that most will have some more scars from the whipping they got from the Worlds number one and this crop must now be wondering will they ever beat the Serb again. However, he isn’t here so lets see how this one pans out and see if we can add yet another winner to our 2015 and make it three from three. In the biggest tournament in Europe so far this year the stakes will be high and it could be a belter. We expect these two to deliver the goods for us again this week.
Andy Murray
Andy, Andy, Andy. A break up in the third set and then you lose 12 games out of the last 13 against Novak, what a capitulation. This will be crushing to his self-confidence. But here at The Betting Agency we expect him to come roaring back and I would rate him as favourite on our book, Novak aside he looked good in Melbourne. He played some very good tennis to reach the major final but he has to convert his frustration and disappointment into good, aggressive tennis and that’s what we expect him to do this week.
Stan Wawrinka
The Swiss’ progress was a bit under the radar due to Andy’s great run but after winning it last year, he managed another major semi-final. He may be disappointed but this shows he’s not just a one-trick-pony but a really talented player.
A lack of experience here in Rotterdam could be a worry but in the form he showed in Melbourne he can definitely make the final for sure. Stan the man is on the way back and at his best he is not far off the best. He is an exciting, emotional player and now carries the baton for Switzerland and for us this week.
Andy Murray 4 units e/w @ 9/4 with Skybet
Stan Wawrinka 2 units e/w @ 9/2 with Skybet
ODI World Cup of Cricket
It seems with every month we get another Cricket world cup of some description. Be it the 20/20, the International, or some Tri, Bi or Quad series somewhere. However this is the original and thanks to some new rule changes, the best.
Lets face it one day cricket is designed for spectators to watch batsmen smash bowlers all over the park and mostly that’s what happens. Certainly in the matches played in Australia bat will dominate ball. The only deviation to that could be the New Zealand Games where we could get deviation and that’s where it gets interesting.
The two best one day teams in the world are South Africa and Australia, so it figures that they will play each other in the final doesnt it? Well maybe, maybe not, as the Zen Master said – we will see.
Highlights for me will be seeing just how uncomfortable the Giant Pakistan 7 footer, Ifan, can make it for batsmen on bouncy quick wickets. I remember how difficult Joel Garner made it for batters at 6ft 8 and players needed to learn how to handle this. I mention this first because Pakistan are the Wild Card, because of Ifan and their very capable batting as well as the enigmatic Afridi they could account for anyone on their day so beware games involving them for more than one reason!!!.
What about New Zealand, arguably the best balanced team in the competition with 150+ strike rate batters right down to 8 and a mixture of left and right hand quicks and spinners and the mercurial MaCullum leading them. They two could have it off.
Put a line through the West Indies as they just dont perform consistently enough but remember they chased 344 and got them in South Africa – and remember that result for later. However they are too Gayle dependent. Of course he will come off soetimes but not all the time.
India in my opinion are gone at the game. Playing Australia does that to a team and their batters need to get their confidence back after the battering they have taken. I also dont think they have the bowling variety necessary to win.
How about England I hear you say – didn’t I hear you say that? No, actually you are right not to ask. We just aren’t good enough. People score too many runs against us too easily and because of this our batsmen are always under intense pressure and because of that they cant play the game they are capable of. We just don’t have anyone who bowls who moves the ball off the straight either by swing or spin, enough to stop people teeing off against us.
Sri Lanka will be a handful but less so now without the two M’s Murali and Malinga, They to rely heavily on their batting and some spinners who don’t spin it but English players seem to think they do.
Coach Lehmann – never a bottler
So who does that leave. I don’t see a minnow winning a game against a major nation this year unless you spot some unusual betting patterns involving Pakistan so sell their games and points where you can. Of course there is always England who could mess up but I don’t think that will happen. This longer game and the extra power play period simply plays against the minnow chances.
I think my final four will be Australia, South Africa, Pakistan and New Zealand and I will back them accordingly and my winner is perhaps no surprise – Australia. They may well play South Africa in the final and if they do they win. South Africa simply bottle it in big games. I may live to regret that but this game is about opinoions and “I pays my money, I takes my chances”
10 units win Australia to be World Champions @ 2/1 with Sportingbet
3 units win Australia and South Africa to contest the final @ 7/1 with Sportingbet
6 units win New Zealand to make the top 4 @ 4/6 with Sportingbet
4 units win Pakistan to make the top 4 @ 6/4 with Sportingbet
Super League Preview 2015
How do you know that the awful winter is coming to an end and that there is life after the NFL – simple. The Super League starts this week and with it comes genuine joy on Thursdays and Fridays with the Sky coverage and of course the odd Saturday as well, the Super League provides it all. At the Betting Agency we love the game and I think if you go back through our 2014 preview you will find we are pretty dam good at finding you great value and more than a few winners.
So, who wins it this year. We take a team by team approach to the hopefuls and then give you our best for 2015
Castleford Tigers – 2014 was amazing year for the Tigers, where Daryl Powells mean exceeded everyone’s expectations. However the close season hasn’t been kind and supporters need to understand the significance of losing both man of steel Daryl Clark and Iron Man – Craig Huby. True Powel has shrewdly signed Ben Roberts and Luke Gale but added to the losses of Weller Hauraki, Marc Sneyd and Gareth Carvell and you have some big shoes to fill. Top 8 is achievable but it will take some effort.
Catalan Dragons – by the end of this season you will be sick of me writing about the Dragons. Why? Because they were really good last year and nearly made the Grand Final and in the off season all they have lost is the dead wood and they have replaced them with, temperament aside possibly one of the top 5 players in the world in Todd Carney, Remi Casty and Willie Tonga. They already have the most exciting three quarter line and I can’t rave enough about how good I think Morgan Escare. This is the best squad in the Super League and they are unbeatable at home – so what does that mean – I think it means they top the table come finals time.
Don’t let us down Baloo!!
Huddersfield Giants – Anyone who follows me knows I don’t like the Giants and their wimpish performance in the play-offs is everything that I hate in the Rugby Team – they just don’t perform under pressure and I don’t believe they are led by a winner. Having said that this year could be different. Make no mistake third is no disgrace but they were put together very well by Nathan Brown, who showed how good he is by then steering Saints to glory and Baloo has his work cut out to keep this show on the road and its possible that he might. Huby is a great signing and Ellis is a good one. Brough is a genius, when he is allowed to play but I worry about the losses of Fiamu and Aspinall. I would be a seller of third position although I think they will win the games they are meant to. Top 8 but no higher than 5th this year as the skein unravels.
Leeds Rhinos – I may well be a Dragons supporter this year but I have been so much a Leeds fan over the last 3 years. So tough. My big worry for the Rhinos is that with the exception of Zak Hardaker, who I think will be the best player in Super League this year, they are an aged squad who hurt and go missing for a few weeks every season and they are supported by some promising inexperienced youths. Adam Cuthbertson is a good signing from Newcastle but not a great one. Jones-Bishop, Bailey and Kirke will take some replacing.
St Helens – An amazing performance by Nathans Browns team last year and they will miss him. Keiran Cunningham has learnt but will he produce when the chips are down and can he keep his talented squad together. Luke Walsh is a genius and if he is fully recovered from his broken leg then they look good again. Sia Soliola was a great impact player and will be missed but other than that they look to be in good shape. They believe and they know how to win and they will be s short price in every game. If they stay healthy they will make the last 4.
Salford Red Devils – I was tempted not to include them in this write up but that would be wrong. On their day they can beat anyone but they were so inconsistent last year and that has to stop. They have turfed out the chaff and have recruited to make a strong squad. Jones-Bishop, Dobson, Hauraki and Taylor are all 1st team players who know how to win and with the exception of how much the old war horse Adrian Morley has in the tank, I think they can upset quite a few this year. Top 8 prospects for them.
Warrington – The addition of Ashton Simms, Daryl Clarke and Gary Wheeler makes for a great post season campaign by coach Tony Smith. They have a good squad and badly missed lee Briars last year. This year they have some real spine in the play making department with Daryl Clarke and a lot of talented players around him. I am really keen on their chances because this year they have the best coach in England and that to me counts for a lot. They will make the Grand Final again – I’m sure of that.
Wigan Warriors – Shaun Wane wont be happy with me giving Tony Smith the accolade of best UK coach and wane is not far behind him. His three key signings of Lee Mossop, Larne Patrick and Taulima Tautai are quality and re-inforce a strong squad. Blake Green is a loss but a fit Sean O’Loughlin is an asset. He was so injured last year. Rookie George Williams has much expected of him and he will have very good games. Can he keep the ball moving under extreme pressure form the big guns. Maybe. For me Wigan will be thereabouts again and they might nick a Challenge Cup but I think top 4 is best for them.
The Rest: Widnes are a team to watch. They will beat all the teams below the top 8 as Denis Bates is such a good coach and they play on a predictable, quick surface every second week which suits the team he is building. Wakefield are in a mess with their ground and sadly I think that will show on the pitch and I have little hope for the two Hull sides who are hard to beat at home but simply keep signing people who are past it – eg, Leon Pryce, Darrel Goulding and half the Gold Coast team who simply aren’t good enough.
So our bets are
- 12 units win Catalan Dragons to win more than 12.5 games @ 4-6 with Betvictor
- 5 units e/w Catalan Dragons to win the Premierhsip @ 11-1 with Boylesports
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