DP World Tour Championship 2014

 

One Horse Race to Dubai

 

Rory McIlroy has finally claimed the Race to Dubai and to be honest he never looked as though he would lose it. He has been the stand out player this year and was untouchable. Despite his dominance this year, this tournament will go to the wire and will be very exciting. He has had the kind of year that Tiger Woods used to have and Henrik Stenson had last year. For that reason these two feature amongst those that we see with the best chance of getting it done this week.

 

Not for us at 4-1

Looks the part this week

Rory McIlroy

The best player in the world has this swagger that he can turn on and when he does, there is no-one who can beat him. His quality and consistency this year has meant he deservedly won the Race to Dubai early. Now he has to win a tournament in Dubai. He won here in 2012 and now being a far better player, we expect him to win again. He has power, he putts great and he seems to be maturing to the point that when things go bad for him he doesnt let it affect him. His confidence is surely his greatest assett. He has to be backed, even at these cramped odds.

 

 

Henrik Stenson

Henrik Stenson

Henrik Stenson

Second at the moment in the Race to Dubai, the Swede has been very good once again this year and has been the consistent player of the tour. He won this tournament last year and can make history by defending his first ever title in Dubai. But compared to McIlroy he is not quite in the same league but we expect him to place and if McIlroy isnt quite 100% he could see him off. He certainly wont lack for game it just needs to be that everything on the greens goes right for him for a successful defence of his title. He certainly loves it out there and he is a “horse for this course”

 

Our Tips:

McIlroy 2 units e/w @ 7/5  Bet 365

Stenson 1 unit e/w  @ 6/1 Bet 365

The Turkish Airlines Open

 

Race to Dubai

There are four players in contention to win the highly craved jackpot and 3 are playing this week despite McIlroy sitting out. Donaldson, Garcia and Siem will have a very difficult task chasing down McIlroy as they have to win this week’s open and next week’s World Tour Championship. Impossible? No but a win in Antalya could pose some questions for Rory. I anticipate a very low scoring competition with four players (-20) or better if previous history is anything to go by. Either way expect some top-notch golf. Below we analyse the chances of a select few who may just dominate this go-lo fest.

 

Victor DebuissonVictor Dubuisson

Dubuisson has made himself the golfing icon of France and his performances in the top competitions have earned him the full recognition he deserves. It is surprising that this is the first European Tour title he will defend in his career after an outstanding (-24) in Turkey last year. After racking up 28 birdies last year he showed that he can make hay when they sun shines and at the Betting Agency, we expect another stellar performance from a man who really believes in himself now.

 

 

Jamie Donaldsonjamie donaldson

Another player who has just came out of nowhere on the road to becoming one of the top players in the world at the moment. Coming from Wales he is an icon for all British golf fans. He is 2nd in the Race to Dubai which is an astonishing achievement and he has gone from strength to strength this season most recently T4 in the BMW Open after an emphatic victory in the Ryder Cup. But we don’t think he can replicate enough of his form to earn a victory here although we do expect him to do well.

 

sergio garciaSergio Garcia

One of the bookies’ favourites Sergio looks to try and earn the prize pot for the Race to Dubai. He has to win here in order to do that and he is capable of doing if his streaky putting holds up. Having not played really since the Ryder Cup his fitness to battle hard for four days may not be good enough and you never can really rely on Sergio. It wouldn’t surprise if he shot lights out for 3 days and then fell in a hole. Maybe next time.

 

 

Our Tips

Victor Dubuisson 1 unit e/w  66/1 Betfair

Jamie Donaldson 1 unit e/w  11/1 Skybet

BNP Paribas Masters 2014

Last Chance Saloon

This is the last chance for players to qualify for London where they will have to prove themselves up against the best in the world. The very best players are here and the quality is sure to be outstanding. With many potential winners and players surging for a London space this is going to be a cracker. The problem is that dissimilar to some of our other recent tips it is hard to see past the big guns as they are all firing getting ready for London.

 

NovakNovak Djokovic

Novak is the man to beat at the moment. All players will raise their game as they play against one of the game’s greatest ever players. He will have no easy round as when his opponents see Novak on the court they will play out of their skins. He doesn’t quite have the form at the moment to beat Roger and go the whole way in France but he is coming to the boil and will prove, as ever the toughest nut to crack. Make no mistake when he gets the final 5% of his game in place he will be unbeatable again.

 

roger federerRoger Federer

Roger will enjoy a large travelling support as Switzerland is not far from Paris and this is sure to be a great tournament for him. He has the best form in the world at the moment and will be very difficult to stop. At The Betting Agency we tip him to topple Djokovic and any other competition he faces. After a momentous win on his home turf in Basel he will be brimming with confidence and when Roger is like this, he’s unstoppable. Time to take some more money out of the pot while he rides this wave.

 

murray musclesAndy Murray

Andy is carving out the results at the moment. He seems to have this real grit and determination that has enabled him to recover and pick up two tournaments this month. Should he beat Novak Djokovic he will have a decent draw until the final. We think he could do it and reach the final however Roger will be too good for him again, at the moment. Andy is finding form and for the first time in a while looks like he could win another major. He might surprise a few in the coming weeks

 

Our Tips

Federer 2 units e/w @11/4 with Sportingbet

Murray 1 unit e/w @ 12/1 with Sportingbet

Erste Bank Open – Vienna

The ATP Tour returns to Europe

After a stint in Asia we are back to Europe to close out the season and where better to go than the spectacular city of Vienna? Vienna is frequently visited by the world’s best players and this year is no different with David Ferrer and Andy Murray having a go at winning the title and progressing their claims to be part of the Barclays Masters in London.  Previous winners include Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Roger Federer when both were young and so this is also a breeding hotspot for the world’s next stars. That aside we cant see past some of the more experienced players this week and we have it down to a short list of three.

 

david ferrerDavid Ferrer

I said it last week in Shanghai, this guy is due a title. He beat probably the next best player here Andy Murray only to lose to Novak Djokovic who at the moment is in a league of his own. But here in Austria he is our sure-fire favourite to lift the Erste Bank Open due to his experience, quality and good fitness. Seeded first he is sure to have an easy draw and if he keeps his concentration and temperament in check surely the crown is his.

 

murray musclesAndy Murray

Andy, Andy, Andy. Ever since winning the US Open and Wimbledon he has looked very ordinary and so has slipped out the world’s top 10 in the world. Hero to zero. He lost against David Ferrer last week in Shanghai in a match he was once again lacking quality and resilience which David had. The extraordinary thing in his match with Ferrer was that his first set, which he won, was probably one of the best sets he has played in the last 2 years – but then ohh dear, what a mess. Clearly the ability is there but when will the mental strength return. At The Betting Agency we expect the same from him this week – disappointment.

 

feliciano lopezFeliciano Lopez

Feliciano Lopez played some exceptional tennis last week and despite what the scorecard showed Roger had to produce his best tennis to get past him.  He also has a very good record here (16/5) and seeded third he will only have to overcome Andy Murray in order to get to the final. He is a very consistent player and will make life difficult for Andy. His quality is superior to the other challengers and at The Betting Agency we think he can get through to the final and maybe even shock Ferrer.

 

Our tips:        

David Ferrer 3 units to win @ 9-4 with Sportingbet

Lopez 1 unit e/w  @ 8-1 with Sportingbet

 

The Shanghai Rolex Masters – Its really hotting up

Back to the Big Leagues

Shanghai is the first tournament since the US Open in which all the big stars are fighting for a huge prize. Players will be surging to compete in the Emirates ATP Race to London in order to qualify. This is why this tournament is wildly unpredictable and anyone can win it.

NovakNovak Djokovic

The Serb has played composed, world class tennis in Beijing and earning his spot in the final has been a walk in the park. He has made some top class players like Murray look way out of their depth and his form in China has been electric. The No.1 seed makes the trip to Shanghai knowing he is on a 10 match unbeaten streak in this Open and we don’t expect him to break his streak.

 

Rafa & RogerRoger Federer

Perhaps tennis’ greatest ever player is back in action after a 3 week break. He may be sluggish compared to many of the other competitors who were in action and we think this may be the difference. The fight is definitely still there but at the very top the margins are just so small that you simply cant afford to be 5% below your best or the number 12 seed beats you.

Maybe next week Roger.

 

 

david ferrerDavid Ferrer

You may be thinking, what is David Ferrer doing here? Where’s Nadal, Nishikori, Cilic, e.t.c.? Well here at The Betting Agency we believe he will succeed and shock everyone here in Shanghai. He is primed to do well here and reach the final spot. At ridiculously generous odds you would be mad to not stick a bet on him. His success might not be a certainty but it is definitely worth the risk. He has a good record here in Shanghai making the final in 2011 and we expect him to do it again.

Our tips

3 units Djokovic to win @ 4/6 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Ferrer @ 50/1 with Boylesports      

 

written by Rory Crowe.      

Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe – The best flat race in Europe

helissioI have been fortunate to attend this meeting on three occasions and everyone of them has been a real treat. From backing Helissio with more money than I should have and then shouting him home, to getting in to the Parade Ring before the race by following in Sheik Mohammed and his entourage. It is just a magical day in the way that Cheltenham is a magical festival. Of course it’s loads better if you can back the winner. So, on the off chance that you might be going let’s see if we can find the winner.

The race revolves, for me, around 9 horses. Nine horses that have the class to win the best, open, flat, middle distance race in the world. How did we get it down to eight, simple we worked our way through the field and eliminated those who havent shown the requirements of an Arc winner.

 

Flintshire – simply hasn’t delivered what everyone said he would. Al Kazeem – peaked last year and doesn’t look the force of 2013, Ivanhowe and Spiritjim – not good enough, Chiquita, interesting and obviously talented, but mature enough to win this race – no. Sijan’s Saga, lacks the touch of class needed, Montviron is there for free tickets, Prince Gibraltar was a line call, Free Port Lux would be a shock winner, Dolniya, is improving but not fast enough for this race and that leaves us with 9.

That leaves us with our nine fancied runners and we break them down like this.

Ruler of the World – ran to his personal best when beating Flintshire in his latest race and I see no reason why Flintshire would reverse the form. However, I think that is as good as Ruler of the world is and I think you need to run better than he is capable of to win this race.

Gold Ship – The first of our Japanese runners, oh how they love this race since winning it. Gold Ship ran to a personal best when beaten by Harp Star and I have to believe that in a fairly run race will be beaten again by Harp Star.

Just A Way – May be the best horse in the race. This horse is a machine over a mile but I keep thinking the trainer has entered him in the wrong race. He was electric in Meydan over 8f – I just don’t get this trip and he wont win unless they crawl.

Treve – The most impressive winner I have ever seen of this race. A turn of foot to die for at the end of a race. Sadly her ability this year has not shone through – Her trainer says its all systems go now – if that is to be believed – she wins.

Ectot – The Co-favourite. Drawn in 11 where jockey Gregory Benoist says is perfect. To me this horses price is all about potential. So far he hasn’t done enough to win this race, on paper. He would need to improve another 7lbs and whilst that’s possible, how can I know that? I will leave this one, to be proved wrong.

Kingston Hill – No doubt has a stayers chance, if they go a clip. The race has to fall apart for him to win. He has an awful draw and either goes to the front to outstay them, like Helissio did, or he sits and waits and hopes they go too quickly. Best chance of winning is to lead. If I saw him do that and get to the front easily, in a race where no-one wants to lead then I would be backing him in running at big prices.

Taghrooda – The real deal. Love her to bits ,since we tipped he to win the Oaks and then to destroy the boys in the King George before winning the Yorkshire Oaks. She is tough, versatile and physically imposing. Reminds me of Ouija Board. She will need a pace to run at and luck in running from 15 but has real class. The win would crown the career of jockey Paul Hanagan as well.

Harp Star – The highlight Japanese runner for me. Might just improve enough to win this race but inexperience I see as the biggest negative. If things go well then this son of Japanese sensation, Deep Impact will be fighting out the finish.

Tapestry – Beaten by Taghrooda and they say has improved since then. Would need to in order to take a hand in this race but I think this is trainer Aiden O’Briens best chance. The best jockey in the world is riding – Ryan Moore, and the draw of 8 is OK.

So thats the line-up and after going through this excercise I now know the winner and the placed horses.

treveTreve, will win. She is close to 100% and even at 95% will account for these.

Taghrooda will test her most and Harp Star will be the only boy to give these two fillies anything to worry about.

 

Our bets: 1 unit e/w Treve  @ 10/1 with  Skybet

1 unit e/w Taghrooda @ 11/2 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Harp Star @ 8/1 with Skybet

 

I will also be having a trifecta on the three of them – If I can find someone who takes it – update on the day.

.

 

 

 

 

Super League – Semi Finals – Game 2

Sadly last nights game didn’t turn out the way we wanted and I genuinely feel sorry for both us as punters and Catalan. To lose Escare so early and to have the worst of every refereeing decision was just too much to concede. However, as we said, St Helen’s would win and they did. So tonight we have a cracker to decide who gets the other berth in the Grand Final.

 

shaun waneThese two sides have met 5 times in the last 2 seasons with Wigan having one 3, one tie and the Wolves successful only once. What does that mean in the context of tonight. Just that Wigan’s coach, Shaun Wayne knows how to beat the Wolves and what it takes to stifle their point gathering game.

I expect it to be tight tonight and I am not sure that suits the naturally flamboyant Warrington team, who simply can’t play conservative. Wigan are to name an unchanged side from their game of two weeks ago and they will be rested after a week off. Warrington may be able to include Matty Russell in their line-up after his horrendous facial clash last week that saw him end up in hospital and as good a job as Stefan Ratchford did in his place it is better for the Wolves to have both fit and playing than just one of them.

 

sean oloughlinSean O’Loughlin remains the key to the engine room of Wigan and his fellow forwards will relish the challenge against the Wolves pack. This will be intense in the middle of the park so whatever opportunities are created it is down to the speed merchants to deliver. Charnley vs chris atkinMonaghan looks exciting, Atkins vs Farrell is a monster match-up as well. Antony Gelling vs Chris Bridge will be vital. All across the park the match-ups are fascinating.

 

I think man for man Warrington have more stars but I also think Wigan perform as a team, week in week out, better than any other in the league and a good team beats a team of good players every time.

 

So for us its Wigan in a cliff hanger.

Our bet : 6.5 units win Wigan @ 8/13 with Sportingbet

 

Super League Semi Finals – It’s a knockout – Game 1

Two great games between four very good sides, as you would expect one week before the grand final. It has been an outstanding year and if you refer to our pre-season write up you will see that we have two of our team picks in either side of the draw.  The big trick now is to work out how these two games unfold and its not going to be easy.

 

Semi Final 1. – St Helens vs Catalan – Sky 8.00pm 2nd October

laurent-frayssinousThe Dragons have shown some amazing fight to win their two play-off games away from home, against the odds and with just a few friends and family watching who could fit on the plane. Its that kind of atmosphere and hostile environment that can really gel a team and Coach, Laurent Frayssinious has done a tremendous job to get his somewhat temperamental gallic charges all singing form the same hymm sheet. Be under no illusion, beating both Leeds and Huddersfield away from home is an amazing effort and one questions how much that has taken out of them. However adrenalin is an amazing thing and if they keep believing, who knows what might happen.

St HelensThe Saints were our tip to out perform everyone’s expectations and by winning the league leaders title they have certainly done that. They are the most dynamic and exciting team to watch and fully deserve their plaudits. Coach Nathan Brown is trying to play down their favouritism for this game but the bookies aren’t having it as they are a 2/5 best priced chance and the probability is that they will win and take their rightful place in the grand final.

My only concern with that is some key injuries and them not playing as well as they did at the back end of the season. Walsh, Wilkin and Lomas are big time play makers and none are playing tonight, they James Robyhave missed them in the last couple of games and so much has been left on the shoulders of the mercurial James Roby. Alex Walmsley, up front has been a big loss but he returns tonight and that will stiffen up the forwards and make running room from dummy half for Roby.

I think they have enough class to get it done but the 2-5 is tight. So we are going to play this one a little differently. I see it as a lot closer game than the bookies have it and were I one of them I would be happy to lay the 5/6 about St Helen winning by more than 10, all day long.morgan escare

 

So we will turn that price on its head and enjoy the forwards doing battle knowing that at some stage Morgan Escare will unlock this defence and mean that the Saints will have to score at least 15 for us to lose.

 

Our bet : 6 units win Catalan +10 @ Evens with Boylesports  – Go the Dragons

 

Our Game 2 Semi- Final Preview will be up tomorrow morning.

 

 

China Open – The Big stars are back in action

 

bejing tennisA tournament which sees the likely renewal of top four rivalries and the competitive return to tennis for a couple of key players after what was a surprise US Open. However we think many of the world’s best players could be extremely unpredictable in Beijing and perhaps a look beyond the obvious is in order – or is it?. Rafa Nadal is back in action after a tough injury, Novak Djokovic will return after his shock defeat to Nishikori and more stars like Thomas Berdych, Grigor Dimitrov and Andy Murray are also competing in what is the regions biggest event pre-christmas.

We are going to concentrate on 3 for this tournament and list our reasons why.

 

 

 

Novak

Novak Djokovic

The world no.1 will be looking to bounce back from a US Open that should have been in the bag. He lost against a tired Nishikori who had played a lot of hours on the court even before he played Djokovic and that was a real shock for all of us. He really looked mentally tired. But tennis springs surprises every tournament, however at The Betting Agency we believe that Novak will continue his remarkable record here in China (17-0) and will win his fifth title in a row in which he has competed here. His quality will be too much for the other players to handle as he now looks a little more refreshed after Flushing Meadow – look out the rest. See our recommendation below

 

 

Rafael-NadalRafa Nadal

This is a nightmare for the punters. With Rafa having been out for a while we have no indication as to how he will perform. He has huge amounts of quality at his best and if he has managed to get back to full fitness he will prove stiff opposition for Novak and the rest. But then again he could be sluggish and get knocked out in the first round if he is even 10% of his best. We don’t know which Rafa will show up so we won’t be tipping him this time but should you feel tempted he is available at a bigger price than normal.

 

 

 

tomasTomas Berdych

The former champion will be looking to shock for a second time here after interrupting Novak’s Beijing supremacy in 2011. He has had a fairly quiet year but seeded third and at good odds he is well worth a punt each way. He hasn’t had many success as he is searching for his second ATP title of the year and at The Betting Agency we think he can at least get to the final if not win it. He is the dark horse for the event…..

 

Our tips

Djokovic 4 units to win @ 6-4 Sportingbet

Berdych 1 unit e/w @ 22-1 Sportingbet

The 40th Ryder Cup – Gleneagles

ryder cup greenI wonder if old Sam Ryder had the vision when he started this bi-annual battle that this would become the most compelling team sporting event on the calendar.

It captures the imagination of every sporting fan, not just Golf fans and it seems to motivate our insanely rich professional golfers to reach for the very best of their abilities. In short it is a magical long weekend of sporting emotion.

In order to discover the winner of this event we need to look at the teams and their abilities and for the purpose of this assessment we have allocated a point score calculated as follows; a maximum of 5 points towards their current form, 5 points towards their overall matchplay game, 5 points for their previous Ryder Cup experience and another 5 points for their ability to putt consistently. By doing this we can come up with a team score and then shape our betting position accordingly.

 

Europe Ryder teamI have allocated the players points accordingly with an appropriate comment

 

Team Europe

Thomas Bjorn   – 14 – If he is hot he is very hot with the flat stick – if he cracks then it all falls apart and the results aren’t great. But he has had a renaissance year this year.

Jamie Donaldson – 14 – Has a great game this year and will be well suited by the prospect. Rookie status my only concern because he looks to have a very sound game in all departments.

Victor Dubuisson   – 16 – Ultra consistent, magician around the greens and handles matchplay and pressure very well. Rookie downgrade otherwise he would be a lot closer to 20 points. Our tip be the number 1 Rookie in points.

Sergio Garcia   -17 – Brilliant all round game and his putting is so much better than it was (It was very poor under pressure). He just needs to believe and he will win and we all know about the Spanish temperament for this event and how he is inspired by Seve for the Ryder Cup.   

Martin Kaymer  – 16 – Brilliant self belief and one heck of a game – power and precision. Can be a little streaky- my only reservation

Graeme McDowell -17 – Coming in to form at the right time and handles pressure better than most – Big Game player

Rory McIlroy – 19 – The don’t come any hotter and our talisman will be under pressure – but I think he loves it

Justin Rose – 19 – My tip to be our top point scorer. All round game makes less mistakes than anyone and that counts in this format

Henrik Stenson – 18 – Has reached last years heights yet but he is a magician. I marked him down on his current form but nothing else

Lee Westwood – 17 –  Lee is a brillaint partner to have as he is so straight but he simply cant hole big putts under pressure

Stephen Gallacher – 16 – Hot form now – can it hold up to this pressure in his Rookie year. Maybe but thats again why he is marked down

Ian Poulter – 19 – Seems to find another gear in this competition and I have marked him solely on his Ryder Cup form. 

Team Total   202

 

Team USA

tom watson

Is this as close as team captain Watson will get to the trophy?

Rickie Fowler – 18 – Is massively up for this and brings the best all round game to the table in the American team. Lacks a little experience but very capable and explosive.

Jim Furyk – 16- Lots of experience and radar straight. Perfect partner for a rookie. Problem is in the singles – simply cant putt

Zach Johnson – 17 – Just lacking the Zip in his game of old but will be hard to beat. Technically strong in all areas and handles pressure very well. Scores highly on the bottle index.

Matt Kuchar – 18 –  “Cooch” knows how to battle and has both the experience and a game coming right at the right time – will score well.

Phil Mickelson – 16 – May still be capable of fireworks but I think has too many mental scars. If he’s hot he can do anything but this is his last and he still doesnt know where its going and hits the ball too high.

Patrick Reed – 14 – Not sure if he has either the game or the ability to perform at this level but he is in form – Rookie

Jordan Spieth – 16 – Mentally tough and a star of the future. Will need to handle a lot of pressure but he is capable of doing that. My tip to be team Rookie 

Jimmy Walker – 15 – Had a great year but this is a whole new ball game, he needs to be looked after in this or he could be scarred for a long time to come.

Bubba Watson – 14 Certainly has one heck of a game but nothing about our golf suits it – the wind, the open spaces, the greens. Could be a liability.

Keegan Bradley – 16- Will have to step up to the plate if his country is to win. He is a tough performer but a lot is expected of him

Hunter Mahan – 18 – In great nick and as tough as anyone to beat. My tip to be top US points scorer. He and Cooch would be tough

Webb Simpson – 18 Game in a good place right now and quietly confident in his own abilities, technically sound.

Team Total : 196

 

So based on our figures alone, that’s a win but not by a huge margin for Europe – now lets factor in home ground advantage for the course, the conditions and the crowd and add 5% on to the European team and take 5% off the USA team. That creates a new point total of,  Europe 213 and USA 186 and this I think accurately reflects the realistic gap between the two teams. If this was reflected in a price, excluding the tie, then I think the prices should be, working on a 100% book, Europe 2-5, USA, 5-2.

Now we can back Europe at 4-6 currently and as you know our theory is that if you can keep backing outcomes at a far bigger price than you believe they should be then you will win and in this case that’s what we will be doing – for our maximum advised stake.

 

Our bet : 12 units Europe @ 4-6 with Betvictor – that’s right 12 units.

Top European Points Scorer – 2 units win @ 7/1 Justin Rose  with Sportingbet

Top American Points Scorer – 2 units win @ 12/1 Hunter Mahan with Sportingbet

Top American Rookie Points Scorer – 4 units win Jordan Speith @ 5/4 Sportingbet

Top European Rookie Points Scorer  – 4 units win Victor Dubuisson @ 7/4 Bet 365