We go head to head again today at Doncaster and all Channel 4 televised races with picksfromthepaddock. We finished in front yesterday with a 4/1 winner and a second @ 7/1 but today we try to tip the winner of the worlds oldest classic.

14:05 Doncaster 

We Begin todays Channel 4 coverage at Doncaster with the At the Races sponsored Champagne Stakes. A Group 2 for 2 year olds ran over 7 furlongs. 

At the head of the betting is Estidhkaar trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Paul Hannagan. With 2 wins from his 3 starts this colt by Dark Angel is well entered up and will be looking grab his second Group win after a comfortable victory when beating subsequent Solario Stakes winner Aktabantay. Estidhkaar took up the running 3 furlongs out showing some signs of the greenness that was apparent when winning his maiden on his 2nd start. Deserved favourite here this half-brother to Toormore will be very hard to beat and is our first selection of the day. 

Belardo for Roger Varian aims to give Andrea Atzeni his 3rd winner of the St Leger meeting. Another horse that comes into this race with some very strong form, winning last time in a listed race showing that day his close proximity to unbeaten July stakes and Richmond stakes winner Iveawood was no fluke. On that form he should not be far away. 

Glenalmond will benefit from the extra furlong after staying on well when finding trouble around a furlong from home. He is taken as the main danger to the selection 

Both War Envoy and Room Key have good claims, and in such a competitive race Room Key could cause an upset after being hampered when finishing well behind top class 2 year old Highland Reel  

Aces winner of his only start had subsequent winner Skate in behind. That form looks weak compared to the rest of this field. 

Estidihkaar (WIN) 3 units @ 11/10 Sportingbet

The Betting Agency 3 units @ 11/10 Sportingbet

14:20 Chester 

For the second live race of the day, we travel to Chester for their 14:20. A Class 3 Handicap ran over an extended 7 furlongs  

Storm king will be the selection here, perfectly drawn if able to break well and lead. Andrew Elliot rode him when winning last time out over this extended 7 furlongs, having dropped to a good mark when finishing second at Doncaster the time before the extra 100 yards looks to be the key. Previously he had been competing in better races, off higher marks, over further distances. The progress he has shown since dropping back to 7 furlongs should continue here. 

Gatepost for Richard Fahey can once agai have a say at a track his owner loves to send his winners. Second here to a well handicapped winner ion Friday, if he’s allowed to take his chance here he could provide punters with a great each way bet. 

Mabait is drawn terribly but has dropped to a very winnable mark and if he’s able to overcome certain traffic problems and find some cover he could run a big race 

Mezzotint for Stuart Williams is another who has not got home over a mile and this niche distance could see him gain his 6th career win. 

Storm King (E/W) 1 unit @ 8/1 Sportingbet

The Betting Agency : Little Shambles 1 unit e/w @ 9/1 Sportingbet

14:40 Doncaster 

It’s back to Doncaster for our third selection the Portland Handicap. A Class 2 Contest ran over an extended 5 furlongs 

Head of the market is Intrinsic for Robert Cowell. Winner of the Stewards Cup at Goodwood 2 starts ago he disappointed last time out when being sent off the 3/1 second favourite and finishing tailed off. Hes the win Selection here as that run can be forgiven and I feel Richard Hughes will want to make amends for not filling punters pockets in the listed event at Newmarket in today’s easier contest over a slightly shorter distance. 

The each way selection will be Go Far comes here on the back of a treble and looks to complete his four-timer on a track he has won on previously. The slight drop in trip should be fine and Jockey Martin Harley has an excellent strike rate for Alan Bailey 

Muthmir for William Haggas is relatively unexposed and has shown a good level of form this year and would not be a surprise winner of a competitive looking event 

Out Do for David O’Meara should not be discounted and is one to watch in the betting.  Jockey Danny Tudhope is a great judge of pace and rarely does this combination leave the money behind 

At bigger prices Love Island can run well in re-applied cheek pieces, he has not worn them in recent starts, but has worn for past victories. 

Intrinsic (WIN)  1 unit @ 11/2 Sportingbet

Go Far (E/W) 1 unit e/w @ 16/1 Sportingbet

Betting Agency : 1 unit e/w Muthmir @ 9/2 Sportingbet

14:55 Chester 

For the race of the day we again travel to Chester and look at the 1mile 4 furlong listed event. 

Pinzolo heads the betting for Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby. No match for the winner last time he had to settle for a well beaten second in a similar contest at Windsor. He folded pretty tamely when pressed that day and maybe since being firmly beaten in two better races previously he has lost the gritty determination he showed when winning his maiden. 

Sennockian star for Mark Johnston has questions to answer here and is not one id have faith in at what looks to be relatively short odds  for his achievements to date.  

Energia Fribby is the unknown factor. A recruit to the Botti stable from Brazil where he has competed at their highest level, how that form will transfer to the UK is a complete unknown and if strong in the betting she is sure to go close. The fact that a Meydan campaign looks highly likely and a win here would not be unsurmountable for a shrewd Trainer makes her the tentative selection here 

Of the rest Whispering Warrior looks to have a good chance if last times defeat is put down to the awkward start. The David Simcock trained gelding could run into the frame here. 

Energia Fribby (WIN) 2 units win @ 100/30 Sportingbet

Betting Agency 2 units win @ 11/4 Sportingbet

15:15 Doncaster 

It’s back to Doncaster for our last 2 races and firstly we will look at the OLBG sponsored Park Stakes. A Group 2 contest ran over 7 furlongs.

Aljamaaheer heads the betting for Roger Varian. Unable to get his head in front in Group 1 contests the drop in class is sought in order to find the first win of the campaign. He was far from disgraced when beaten less than two lengths by Sole Power two runs ago. Then next time by a greater distance by the same highly prized sprinter. Today’s level is well within his compass and will be competing for the win come the final half furlong or so. That said the short odds here make me feel there must be a etter value selection, and that selection will be cable bay. Beaten last time out in a listed event when having her first start of the season, she was hampered early on and pushed wide to a position she did not recover from.

Previous form entitles her to respect here, knocking on the door in Group races at the end of last year’s campaign better was expected on reappearance and with that run under her belt today’s race could be an ideal opportunity to gain that elusive black type.

Gregorian looks to continue some great stable form for trainer John Gosden, he certainly has a race like this in him. A 7 furlong group 3 win at Newmarket followed by a subsequent 1 ½ length third to Slade Power in a group 1 gives him claims here. 

Cable Bay (E/W) 1 unit e/w @ 8/1 Sportingbet

Betting Agency : 1 unit e/w @ 9/2 Sportingbet

15:50 Doncaster

The final live race of the afternoon and we finish with Group 1 action in the Ladbrokes St Leger. Ran over 1 mile 6 furlongs the high class 3 year olds bid to win the final classic of the season.

Our final selection is Kingston hill who makes his belated reappearance after finishing fourth in the Coral Eclipse in July. He ran that day on ground that was on the firm side of good, ground which he has declined to race on since. With the ground forecast to be on the soft side of good that should see the Roger Varian trained Derby runner up return to winning ways now reunited with regular jockey Andrea Atzeni.

There is no doubting the form of the derby run and as long as the ground doesn’t become too quick Kingston Hill can return to the level of class form shown last autumn when taking two Group 1 races last autumn. 

Kings Fete for Ryan Moore has shown steady improvement this season but is facing a big ask to win his first group start in this race.

Of the Sir Michael Stoute trained duo Snow Sky os the preference of retained jockey James Doyle. He comes here on the back of a valiant effort behind the highly rated postponed, although I feel he will want quicker ground than is forecast. Although anything faster than good will bring him into the picture.

Windshear could appreciate some cut in the ground, having looked unlucky when squeezed back before making a challenge late on, the extra distance could also bring further improvement and the Richard Hannon trained colt is very much a danger to the selection.

At bigger prices Hartnell could easily benefit from the drop in trip and if given an easy lead could cause an upset

Kingston Hill (WIN)  2 units win @ 100/30 Sportingbet

Betting Agency: Snow Sky 2 units e/w @ 6/1 Sportingbet

Our friends from Picksfromthepaddock have put up their tips and previews for todays televised races and we go head to head with our tips underneath – It should be a great days racing and we can’t wait

13:40 Doncaster We open day three to Doncaster’s St.Leger meeting with a great looking two year old, five furlong race. At the head of the betting and in my opinion, worthy favourite, Ainippe is unbeaten and hails from the bang in form yard of Irish trainer Ger Lyons. The unbeaten favourite has a win over Ballydoyle’s Great War which reads well but will need to have continued its progression and for that alone I’m willing to take it on. Charlie Hills had a winner yesterday and he enters Glorious Goodwood winner Cotai Glory in this. I was so impressed by the horse it went straight into my notebook after it’s last run and with top notch jockey George Baker on board it has to have a solid chance. An outsider worth noting is David Barron’s Sarista. A fourth behind Hootenanny at Royal Ascot is form that reads very well and the horse is surely overpriced at 33/1.
Cotai Glory 1 unit e/w @ 6/1 with Sportingbet Sarista (E/W) .5 unit e/w @ 50/1 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip : 1 unit e/w @ Ahlan Emaratti @ 8/1 with Betvictor

 

14:10 Doncaster The second race from the Yorkshire course is over the St. Leger one mile and six furlong trip. With fifteen runners heading to post value has to be the order of the day and I think you shouldn’t look further than John Quinn’s Pearl Castle. The horse is a model of consistency and has a great record at Doncaster with two wins from two starts at the course. I’d argue that the level of its races have been higher than this one and seems great value at around 9/1.
Pearl Castle (E/W) 1 unit @ 10/1 Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip 1 unit e/w Farquhar @ 14/1 with Sportingbet

 

14:40 Doncaster The big race of the day over a marathon trip of two miles and two furlongs sees Times Up aim to retain his victory in this race for the second time. The Ed Dunlop horse seems in better form this year compared to last and obviously relishes conditions. Current favourite Estimate is by far the class horse in the race but seems to have been found wanting against some of its opposition this year and with a current price of 5/4 seems very short in the betting and there’s
no value backing the Queens runner. Of the remaining entrants many like the look of Andrew Balding’s Whiplash Willie. The horse has certainly beenrunning consistently but at a much lower level than this and needs to take a marked step up in class. I think the horse has what it takes to place but probably not what is needed to win.
Times Up (WIN) 2 units @ 4/1 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip 1 unit e/w @ 7/1 with Sportingbet

 

15:15 Doncaster The penultimate race shown on Channel 4 is a very open two year old contest. The undoubted class horse is the Mark Johnston favourite Muraaqaba who was mightily impressive when winning a Group three at Newmarket last time out. That form is better than anything it’s rivals have accomplished but is far too short in the betting to represent any great value. Away from the favourite I like the look of Alonsoa, who’s last run can be ignored as the filly didn’t appreciate the soft, underfoot conditions and will relish the return to better ground. Trainer Henry Candy has his yard in good form at the moment and represents better value than those at the head of the market.
Alonsoa – 1 unit e/w @ 11/2 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency tip: Agnes Stewart 2 units e/w @ 4/1 with Sportingbet

 

15:45 Doncaster We end the live coverage on television with an open looking six furlong handicap. Michael Appleby’s Danzeno is lightly raced and has done very well by picking up three wins from just five starts. That said however Im not so convinced the horses it’s beaten compare so favourably against today’s opposition and although it may improve enough to take this a lot is taken on trust and I’m not so convinced at a very short price. As with the first race at Doncaster today I’m going to side with a Charlie Hills runner. Shropshire is somewhat of a regular in big six furlong races and this may be seen as a bit of a step down in class. It’s true to say the horse can be very inconsistent but with the trainer in such fine form I hope today the horse will be primed and ready to take a hand in this. Another horse I’m going to opt for is trained relatively local to Doncaster by trainer David Nicholls. Poole Harbour’s last run at Chester can be forgiven and the horse should strip fitter for the run and return to firmer ground. It hasn’t won since June 2012 but has a decent handicap mark now and may sneak a place.
Shropshire 1 unit (E/W) @ 12/1 with Sportingbet Poole Harbour 1 unit (E/W) @ 25/1 with Sportingbet

Betting Agency Tip : 1 unit e/w Shropshire @ 12/1 with Sportingbet Written by Rory Paddock

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The Deutsche Bank Open 28-31st August, TPC Boston

We need to put in another solid performance this week at the TPC Boston after Hunter Mahan winning at 40/1 last weekend and we have got it down to our four against the field. We are opposing McIlroy again this week for the same reasons as last week. He may well win but at 4/1 he is of no interest. Our four against the field are :

 

1. Adam Scott – he is hitting the ball supremely well and is going to put together 4 great rounds very soon. But for his desperate 75 last Saturday he was the winner of the tournament. His problems are mental not physical and if he can relax this weekend his game is in good nick.

1 unit e/w @ 12/1 with Sportingbet

 

2. Rickie Fowler – surely this is the one. Rickie has been playing great gold since we tipped him up at the US Open. In his last 16 rounds of golf he has hit 14 rounds in the 60′s. This birdie-fest course at TPC Boston is tailor made for his ultra aggressive play and we have to be with him this weekend

1 unit e/w @ 20/1 with Sportingbet

 

 

3. Matt Kuchar – Ultra popular with the Amreican crowds, it is likely this weekend that the cries of COOOOOOOCH, will be heard right across Boston. His efforts last weekend in the final rounds show that hsi game is on the way back and he will be a force to be reckoned with as he marches towards another huge payday.

1 unit e/w @ 20/1 with Sportingbet

4. Zach Johnson – He finished 22nd last weekend nad showed that his game is alo on the way back. When his iron play is hot he scores well because his putting is always strong. We always need a big priced entrant and he is this weeks. With his majors pedigree its likely he will be feeling confident again and he is another who can go low.

1 unit e/w @ 66/1 with Sportingbet

 

We use Sportingbet for all our golf as they pay six places on all tournaments – open an account now

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The US Open – Flushing Meadows, 25-31st Aug

 

The champions are collapsing

Age shall not weary them – well the top four in World tennis have been in a lot of battles and collectively won and lost a lot of wars and they now have scars and injuries to show for it. Rafa is injured and not playing, Roger pieces himself together with tape to get on to the courts, Murray goes from one operation to another and even Novak gets beaten these days. Is it time for a change to the world order? Maybe

At Wimbledon the young guns showed that they can challenge the seemingly immovable top 4 of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray but in the end the old guard who have won 18 out of the last 19 majors were victorious, at the end running on fumes and mental strength alone to get through. Here we look at whether there will be a shock this week or if your money is still safer with the big four, a job made a little easier with the injury problems to Rafa, who is unable to play.

 

Novak Djokovic

The Wimbledon champion and 7 time major winner is the short priced favourite to claim the title as he did in 2011. Despite the early exit in Cincinnati he has the both the quality and the fitness to win at Flushing Meadows. The disappointment in Cincinatti may turn out to be a huge advantage, or was that how he designed it? Whilst Roger Federer was the winner there nis no doubting he used an awful lot of energy that will be very much necessary in the sauna-like arena in New York. Novak’s form this year, despite winning Wimbledon, has been less than the electric form he had in 2011 and he could be facing Murray amongst others in the quarter and so this may not be his year. But his quality means he can never be discounted. He is 6/4 with BetFred to win the tournament and if he decided to have a “mental holiday in Cincinatti he could well be some value for the big one but there is no doubting he is more vulnerable than he has been for some time as is reflected in his price.

Roger Federer

He has easily been the best in the world in the past few months and in my opinion was unlucky not to win Wimbledon. With Novak, Rafa and Andy all having problems in the past few months this is surely his best shot at another major to cap his brilliant career. The issue for this tournament and has been for the last few years, is his fitness. Is a 33 year old with as many miles on the clock able to win a major with such fitness kings as Grigor Dimitrov in the way? In my opinion, I think he can if he shows the form of Cincinnatti and he can become the 3^rd oldest male major winner of all time. He is available at 11/4 with Bet 365 and is worth a punt.

Andy Murray

Where do we begin with Andy? The former US Open champion has had an injury-stricken and devastating year. He has struggled to contend realistically since the Wimbledon glory last year. But if he can get his serve going and find some of the form from last year he could get the win. Most likely facing Djokovic in the quarters means a very harsh draw for the no. 8 seed. He isn’t our tip but if you are tempted to be patriotic he is available at 13/2 with Bet Victor.

 

Stan Wawrinka

Who would have thought that we would be talking about Stan Wawrinka being a huge contender for his second, yes second, major of the year? He was lethal at the Australian Open and without Rafa and with Andy and Djokovic stuttering to find form, the only big threat is an experienced but with questionable stamina- his fellow Swiss Roger Federer. The hard court at Flushing Meadows should favour his hard- hitting style and he can capitalise on the top four’s weakness like he did in Austrailia. His draw means he will have to face Raonic in the quarters but then a tired Djokovic who has had to play either Murray or Tsonga in the quarter final. He is a shoe in to reach the final however. Back him e/w at 14/1 with Boylesports.

 

Grigor Dimitrov

The 23 year old is a rising star in the game and his dazzling performances this year have not gone unnoticed. He is tipped to be the jewel to the crown of Eastern European talent and take Novak’s baton. He has performed well at majors this year with a last 8 appearance in Australia and finishing in the semi-finals at Wimbledon after an emphatic performance against Andy Murray. He will shine again however it is unlikely he will pass Roger Federer in the quarter final. If he does somehow beat Roger he has a fairly easy semi-final with only really David Ferrer to pose as stiff opposition. Bet at 16/1 with BetFred for him to win if you think he can achieve that test. If he gets past Roger we will be with him for the rest of the tournament.

 

The summary for us is that this is a stroke players surface. You need pace and class to win and out pre-tournament tips are as follows.

 

Our bets :

3 units to win US Open, Roger Federer @ 11/4 Bet 365

2 units e/w to Stan Wawrinka @ 14/1 Boylesports

 

 

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York Ebor – Day 4 Preview

C’mon, you know you are going to have to read it! If you don’t, you know we tip up 5 winners today and you miss the boat. That’s what Gamblor does. “You know he’s messing with my mella man” Any way enough of that stuff we really do need to find some winners today at York and I think we have got the answers.

 

2.05 Strensall Stakes Group 3 9f

Classy if small field for this race. Farraaj is all the rage after winning a handicap at this track in the manner of a group horse. Graphic brings a profile to the race that just keeps getting better and Custom Cut for O’Meara and Tudhope is trying to complete a four timer. Its a terrific race of its type and I am going to side with a horse I saw show an electric turn of foot 15 months ago in Meydan and hasn’t quite show that same performance since. Trade Storm looked a Grp 1 certainty then and I think hasn’t had the right conditions to replicate that until today. David Simcock has his string in fine form and Jamie Spencer knows the horse and knows how to ride him through horses to deliver a potent challenge.

Our Bet :  1 unit e/w Trade Storm @ 11/2 with Betvictor

 

2.40 Betfred Melrose Stakes Hcp 14f

19 take to the gates for a race that features a wide assortment of profiles only 3 favourites have won this race in 10 years but no horse has ever been more than 9/1 in a race that regularly goes 5/1 the field. So fancied horses run well in this race. Captain Morley looked good at Chester but I think he could do with an ease in the ground to be at his best. I think Notarised needs this extra distance but his has not been an easy year and this may not see him at his best, which he would need to be to win. Kashmiri Sunset is appealing off his feather weight but again an ease in the ground might be to his advantage. I am going to side with Farquhar who is crying out for this trip and put up his best effort when finishing fourth at Haydock. I think he is over priced. There is also no escaping the favourite who at 11/2 looks the type to win this race for master trainer Luca Cumani.

Our bets:

1 unit e/w Farquhar @ 25/1 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Conneticut @ 11/2 with Bet 365

 

3.15 Irish Thoroughbred Gimcrack Stakes Group 2 6f

Jungle Cat and Beacon look exceptional colts with the 6f sure to suit Beacon and Mark Johnstons Jungle Cat having contested with the very best but for me we will keep it simple. We have sided with Baitha Alga since his first win at Chester and have seen no reason to abandon him now. I think he is exceptional and his pilot knows the buttons to push.

Our bet : 4 units e/w Baitha Alga @ 7/2 with Sportingbet

 

3.50 Betfred Ebor Class 2 14f

One of the classic betting races of the year. Pallasator has been laid out for the race by his master tactician trainer Sir Mark Prescot Bt – who as far as I know is a Baronet because of services to handicapping horses for the racing nobility. Despite the fact that he might win I think he is a bit over bet now, although I cant see much outside the first 5 in the betting anyway. I think this trip will bring out the best in Clever Cookie who has been a revelation on the flat. Mighty Yar has all the ability you need to win this race, a lowly weight and a quality big race jockey in Dettori. Bold Sniper lost nothing in defeat to Farraaj, who contests the opener on the card and although he steps up in trip he has won over 12f already and finally one from outside the top 5 Suegioo, who although he has won over much longer trips this year something I have noticed this week is that because they are going such a quick pace on this fast ground you really need to stay and he has both class and the ability to stay. I evidence this with the Lonsdale the other day where 1st and 2nd clearly need 2 mile 4 furlongs but were clear of the rest over this 2 mile trip.

Our bets:

1 unit e/w Clever Cookie @ 11/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Suegioo @ 40/1 with Sportingbet

 

4.25 Julia Graves Roses Stakes – Listed 5f 2 yo

Always a difficult race as 2yo olds improve at different rates after every race due to growing, experience and different racing conditions as evidenced by the fact that only 1 favourite has won in the last 10 years. I have got it down to three. Mind of Madness for David Brown who was just 1.5 lengths behind Baitha Alga at Royal Ascot and then put in a strange one at Newmarket, to back him we need to put a line through that Newmarket run. He has had a good break since then and could be cherry ripe. Moonraker for Mick Channon who beat Mubtaghaa in his Maiden and then also ran poorly in the same race at Newmarket and finally Showing Character, who beat a good-un first time up at Chester and then trounced him again having improved further.  It’s a bit of a gamble to go with one less experienced but I fancy the Dacombe horse to ocme out on top on a course that should suit him better than Chester

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Mind of Madness @ 4/1 with Bet 365

2 units e/w Showing Character @ 7/2 with Sportingbet

 

5.00 Jack Berry House Stakes Class 2, 10f

Ultra competitive race with any number how could win. Llarnarmon Lad is a horse we have been following and who looks to have the necessary ability to win a race of this nature and he is a tentative selection. I also think these is value in Double Discount who is back to the form he showed when looking a good un last year and at a big price i think he could be competitive

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Llanarmon Lad @ 8/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Double Discount @ 25/1 with Sportingbet

 

and finally

 

5.35 Qipco Future Stars Hcp 5f

As if it hasn’t been hard enough they finish of this carnival with an Apprentice Handicap over 5 furlongs for 3 year olds. You could make it any tougher. So if we haven’t hacked up today then we really do need some luck in this one. I picked out three. Logically Online Alexander heads the field and this trainer jockey combination is a successful one on most racing days so Kevin Stotts 3lb is well worth it. Speed Hawk for Robert Cowell and Robert Tart will also be popular as he has found his feet again as a sprinter and finally Money Team who I think has been desperate for a flat track and has got it today with the best claiming apprentice of the lot, Cam Hardie in the plate.

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Speed Hawk @ with with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Money Team @ 16/1 with Bet 365

 

 

 

 

 

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The Challenge Cup Final – Abide with us and win

Castleford Tigers vs Leeds Rhinos – Saturday 23rd Aug – 2.30 kick off – BBC1

The knockout feature of the year comes to a head at Wembley and it should be a cracker.

The DNA of Tigers coach Daryl Powell has changed since last year, some would say evolved. He began his takeover from Ian Millward by insisting that his squad needed to “get a buzz” out of defending and grow stronger every time they denied their opposition the opportunity to score. They became quicker and stronger and made teams play in an “uncomfortable way”. As  they got better at this aspect he has encouraged them to play and now their 3/4 line is as exciting as any. Both coach and team have surprised everyone. Tactically they are very good, they play disciplined Rugby and they play as a team who are efficient at both moving the ball and defending against it. They need to be!

The Tigers are playing against the most ruthlessly efficient team of the last decade, possibly ever. They have won more titles than any other in Super League history. They started the “joys of defence” and then through Maguire, Sinfield and Burrows they have terrorised slow moving defences. Add in the strength and speed of Watkins and Hall and sit behind them the incredibly talented Hardacre and you have the reasons why they just keep winning. With one glaring omission – this crop haven’t won a challenge cup, something they are desperate to put right. It’s possible its now or never and with an ageing side, there might be a reason for that record, which could have to do with their talisman, former Army hero, coach Brian McDermott who has always considered that winning the league was his priority. Add in to that, amazingly, during the last 6 season, not this one, Leeds have endured shocking mid season injuries when the key knock out games were being played in the Challenge Cup and you might go some way to understanding why Super Leagues most gifted haven’t lifted the Challenge Cup. This year, fewer injuries and et walla, they are in the final.

So how does it transpire tomorrow? Here is my theory.

For most of the game the Tigers forwards are going to be able to push the Leeds offence out wide and that the key part of this game will be played on the wings. Leeds won’t want a forward battle, their forwards, as good as they have been, are ageing. Peacock and company have been to war a lot of times and there are a lot less miles on the clock of the Cas forwards. My biggest concern is the health of Tiger forward, Craig Huby. He has been an immense ball carrier and tackler this year and the Tigers go where he goes. Problem is he dislocated his elbow 2 weeks ago and it required an operation to get it back in to place (ouch). Surely that can’t have recovered in time. The Tigers know how important he is and the declaration that he will play to the Wheldon Rd faithful as the bus left town yesterday for Wembley was a real boost.However there simply has to be doubts. It’s still a good thing for him to play as his fellow team mates get a real psychological boost from him being out there and if he has to come off at some stage then they are no worse off than if he hadn’t played.

The fate of the Tigers now rests with the ability of the Centres to deny the Leeds play makers time to create opportunities for their lethal backs and in turn their opposite numbers to contain them whilst still playing their own game. Sounds tough! It is, but its that effort that wins Titles and Cups and that’s what the Tigers have to do if they want to win.

Can they do it? I’m  not sure, one thing I am sure of is that they will be no pushover for Leeds and whilst the 4/9 on offer for Leeds to win is tempting I prefer to think that Castleford simply wont be beaten easily and that the 8 points on offer in the handicap market is too generous. It promises to be a cracker and the best way to enjoy it is with a good, winning bet.

 

Our bet : 4 units win Castleford + 8 points @ Evens with Bet 365

 

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York Ebor – Day 3 Preview

Another poor day by our standards as we managed a few placed horses but no out and out winners. It happens, we need to keep trying and sticking to what made us a years worth of great profits. Today is another day and we are ready.

 

1.55 Skybet Transfer Fund Stakes Hcp 12f

Last years winner Chancery comes here after a spin over 10f ready to step up to his winning distance with both his trainer and jockey in great nick, as they always seem to be at this time of year – or these days, any time of year. Lahaag has been highly tried and appears to be at the right handicap mark and on the right surface to win for Johnnie G and Paul Hanagan and the globe trotting Wigmore Hall has come back to form at a handicap mark that means on this course he can win.

Our bet

1 unit win Wigmore Hall @ 8-1 with Skybet

1 unit win Chancery @ 8-1 with Sportingbet

 

2.30 Weatherby’s Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup Class 1, 2 miles

I used to cheer Double Trigger on at this course and over this trip and I love these staying stars. Sadly I think this trip is too short for Estimate and I think he tried his heart out at Ascot. Not sure how much is left in the tank now. Pale Mimosa I think would also like further and Times Up, although he won over this trip in France last time out he doesn’t perform quite so well at this level. That leaves us with Cavalryman who Keiron Fallon says is better than ever, so who are we to argue?

Our bet : 4 units win Cavalryman @ 9-4 with Bet365

 

3.05 Skybet City of York Stakes Listed 7F

Only one 3yo has won this in the last 10 years but I still fancy the chances of Ertijaal who ran a blinder at Chester on his latest run and has both ground and course to his liking and will love  a fast pace to run at. Rerouted is also back to 7f and will be spot on for Mike DeKock, he will also love conditions. However it is hard to ignore Glory Awaits whose trainer has tasted success already this week and who as a horse is getting better and better and nearly back to his Group 1 best.

Our bet :

1 unit e/w Glory Awaits @ 14-1 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Ertijaal @ 10-1 with Betvictor

 

3.40 Coolmore Nunthorpe Group 1, 5f

At the other end of the racing scale is our speedsters over 5 furlongs – love them as well. These hot headed speed balls are so physically impressive. The Linford Christie’s of the equine world. My four to whittle down is the obvious Sole Power who just keeps winning and looked better than ever at Royal Ascot. Shea Shea who was astounding when winning at Meydan and hasn’t recreated that just yet, Hot Streak who chased Sole Power and will be stronger and better for this run and still gets a couple of pounds for being 3 and Rangali who sprinted past Catcall in France recently to record an easy win. I will be backing two in this race and as I never back Sole Power and he always wins I cant back him this time either.

Our bet :

1 units e/w Shea Shea @ 8-1 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Rangali @ 12-1 with Sportingbet

 

4.20 Skybet Are you in? Convivial Maiden Stakes 7f

Tough race to bet in with so many who will improve for the run and some well bred debutants. Acaster Malbis has the best form of those we have seen and better than the second favourite Swot, who needs to improve to be in front of him. I also like Muffareh of the unbraced horses and will be looking to see support for him.

Our bet : 1 unit e/w Muffareh @ 12-1 with William Hill

 

4.55 Nationwide Accident Repair Services Stakes Hcp 1 mile

Tricky finishing handicap and I have it down to three. Munaaser was mightily impressive after bolting up at Newmarket and will be popular. Extremity was good over his latest win and if there is any rain Leesha comes in to the reckoning

Our bet :  2 units e/w Munaaser @ 5-2 with Bet 365

 

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York Ebor Meeting Day 2

Ok, Ok, we got a caning yesterday from the bookies. Sadly that’s how it goes sometimes at this meeting. However its not what happens it’s how you take it that counts and we have picked ourselves up and are ready to do battle again today.

 

1.55 DBS Premier Yearling Stakes  Class 2 6f

Good two year olds line up in a variation of the Sales races that take place across the country. Four favourites have won the last ten runnings of this race and favourites generally have a good record of performance, favoured as they are, by the level weights with penalties framing the contest rather than on sales prices achieved. It will be difficult for the unexposed runners Sawaahel and Valley of Fire, both of whom have fancy entries, including Middle Park aspirations. They may be talented but at 22/1 there is little confidence behind Sawaahel but Valley of Fire seems to have attracted a bit of money at 8/1. Its hard to get away form the performances of Kool Kompany who should be better on this quicker surface than he was in Ireland when finishing second in a group race and Fast Act who followed up a good performance behind Tiggy Wiggy with a great run finishing second in Group race at Goodwood.

Our bet :

2 units e/w Kool Kompany @ 3/1 with Sportingbet

2 uits e/w Fast Act @ 11/2 Sportingbet

 

2.30 Pinsent Mason Lowther Group 2 for Fillies 6F

We applaud connections for going head to head in this race. Whilst the programme says 10 run its a 3 horse race as far as we re concerned and those three are good-uns. They are Tiggy Wiggy who as explosive in the Super Sprint and destroyed a goodish field and is definitely a group Horse. Then we get to Anthem Alexnder who put her in her place at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary, which as thrown up winner after winner and finally Cursory Glance who won the Albany at Royal Ascot. Applying collateral form to horses is always a little dangerous to be too literal but our reasoning is as follows. Anthem Alexander wins because she beat Tiggy Wiggy and will improve again. Cursory Glance will be behind both of them because Patience Aleaxander finished too close to here in the Albany for that to be as good form. There- its that simple isnt it?

Our bet : 3 units e/w Anthem Alexander @ 3/1 with Bet 365

 

3.00 Clipper Logistics Satkes Hcp C2 1 mile

Notoriously difficult when you have possible group horses in handicaps and at this level thats what we are looking at. We have nailed it down to four. Short Squeeze who has always been thought of as a group horse in the making and has had three runs in 2014 to get himself right, the last being over 7f. He steps up to his right trip today and could be perfectly primed. Bronze Angel who loves this track and the ground and was a bit unlucky at Goodwood last time. Red Avenger, who triumphed in the same race at Goodwood and Russian Realm who may also be lurking at the bottom of this handicap waiting to explode.

Our bet :

1 unit e/w Bronze Angel @ 12/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Russian Realm @ 14/1 with Sportingbet

 

3.40 Darley Yorkshire Oaks  Group 1 12 furlongs

We wont talk about this for long as Taghrooda is simply too good for this lot. I would expect Tapestry to push her but not enough to warrant a bet.

My advice is take the inflated introductory prices on offer at Betfair for new customers, if you don’t have an account and have your maximum that they allow. Its free money.

 

4.20 Sir Henry Cecil EDF Galtres Stakes Listed 12F

The four to concentrate on are Waila who is dropping back in trip and if and its a big if, she is fast enough to lay up with these on this quick surface, could find the course to her liking. Noble Protector comes in the reckoning on her surprise win in a listed race last time out – although that’s what concerns me, it was a surprise. Momentus for David Simcock who finished 3rd in a listed race on her second run and then was considered good enough to run in the Oaks, where she was put in her place by Taghrooda – no shame there, and then easily won her Maiden last time out. Quiz Mistress who has had a busy year in good races and is highly thought of. Interestingly all the money is for Dermot Welds Starlet but as I have never got him right in 10 years I am not going to try now and with just a Maiden victory to her name those who think they know are getting stuck in.

Our Bet : 1 unit e/w Momentus @ 14/1 with Skybet

 

4.55 Eventmasters.co.uk Fillies Stakes 7F

Another tough one to finish on and it may pay to look at Azagal who was unlucky the way the race panned out recently and if things go her way could easily win a race of this type. The Gold Cheongsam who ran a good comeback race and then had a go at  a Grp3  and travelled well for a long way. Dutch Courage who has been highly tried and looks like things good drop right in a big handicap one day and finally Enraptured who seems to be a John Gosden lurker, possibly even targeted at this race some time ago.

Our bet

1 unit e/w Azagal @ 40/1 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Enraptured @ 10/1 Sportingbet

1 unit e/w  The Gold Cheongsam @ 28/1 Sportingbet

 

 

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