If you haven’t been to York for the Ebor Festival you must find the time to do it at least once in your life.
It’s great racing and a great social week in a great city. If you are going then you might like to consider the following as our idea of horses that could run well and hopefully see you with a few extra quid at the end of what is always a great days racing.
It’s never easy at York and like all good days racing your success and failure hinges around one or two results. This one is no different – so here we go!!
1.55 Symphony Group Stakes Class 2 Hcp 5 furlongs
Great to kick off with a top quality sprint handicap and whilst we have some proven York performers I just get the feeling that this race is just a little off the quality of years before, particularly with the defection of the two Robert Cowell runners, Free Zone and Goldream, the latter having won for us recently on Shergar Cup day at Ascot.
Our first idea of the winner is somewhat unoriginal in that we fancy the favourite Robot Boy to put a moderate last run behind him and continue his upward spiral for David Barron and Graham Gibbons and at 9/1 he represents a good each way bet. The other we will put up in this race are Kimberella for David and Adrian Nichols, who after finishing fourth in the Great St Wilfred comes here at the top of his game in a race that on paper looked tougher than this one. At 16/1 we will get on side with Dandy’s sprinter who looks a bit of value.
Our bets : 1 unit e/w Robot Boy @ 9/1 with Bet 365 and
1 unit e/w Kimberella @ 16/1 Betvictor
2.30 The Acomb Stakes Group 3, 7 Furlongs
Always a good race with a strong crop of 2 years old’s competing over this longer trip. Only 3 favourites have won this race in the last 10 years but no horse has been bigger than 11/1 in the same period. So fancied horses run well in this race.
Jamaica for Aiden and Joseph O’Brien will be popular after his emphatic win at Galway as will Richard Hannons, Basateen after hacking up at Doncaster but both are priced accordingly at 11/4 and 9/4 so a chance is taken with Prince Gagarin who was a good winner in his last outing showing a turn of foot that we might not have expected from one whose pedigree appears stamina laden. I think he will enjoy a strong end to end gallop and could be over priced at 15/2 with Ed Dunlop being in good form and Ryan Moore in the plate – simply the best!
Our bet : 1 unit e/w Prince Gaugarin @ 15/2 with Sportingbet
3.05 The Neptune Investment Great Voltigeur Group 2, 12 Furlongs
This is the key part of the day and where we will win or lose today. We will be big on Kingston Hill. He has RPR figures of 112 when running over 8&10F but goes up to a whopping 123 over 12 furlongs. Today is that same trip and whilst I am tempered somewhat by the form of trainer Roger Varian who has had just 1 winner in his last 10 days, by and large his horses are still running well and I think this horse can run 4-5 pounds below his best at this trip and still account for Postponed, Hartnell andGrand Duke of Tuscanny. Its time to stand up and be counted
Our bet 6 units win Kingston Hill @ 11/8 with Skybet
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3.40 Juddmonte International Group 1, 10 Furlongs
Despite the 6 runners its a 3 horse race and after tipping up Australia to win the Derby our heart says we need to be with him. The problem is his trainer Aiden O’Brien said he could be a little underdone for today after having had a break to focus on an Autumn campaign. There is no doubt he is the best horse in the field, however is he able to run below his best and account for the two other contenders over a trip that many believe is his best? I dot know the answer to that and at the likely heavily odds on price we might have to swerve him today.
So we are going to abandon him today and at the forecast 1/2, if he goes in we can cheer loudly as I think our selection will be second if that’s the case. I fancy Mukhadram, who wears his heart on his sleeve when going from the front and is somewhat underrated by most within racing, to carry the race away from the others on a track that suits front runners. The likely strong gallop will help Telescope but I think 12f is his trip and the selection will be too quick for him.
Our bet : 2 units e/w @ 6/1 Mukhadramwith Betvictor
4.20 Fine Equinity Stakes Hcp 2 miles
A big field for this two miler and a mixture of form and abilities on offer. It might pay to side with in form Yorkshire trainer Mick Easterby who sends out Itlaaq, a horse who has won off marks 88 and 91 and races today off 85 having been put right with a win at this course and over this distance on 26th July. Confidence is tempered by him getting close to the top of his ability range and as an 8yrd old isn’t improving any more. We will plump for two in this tough handicap, the unexposed Bantam for Ed Dunlop, with Ryan Moore up again who has had just the two improving runs each time in 2014 and looks ready for this trip and class of race and Lady Kashaan for Alan Swinbank who knows what a 2 mile winner looks like and with Ben Curtis on board with his claim looks in a good place to do herself justice.
Our bets: 1 unit e/w Bantam @ 7/1 with Sportingbet
1 unit e/w Lady Karshaan @ 16/1 with Sportingbet
4.55 The Stanjames.Com Nursery C2 6 furlongs
Not an easy last race of the day but good form should be followed and whilst its unoriginal, in terms of him being the favourite, Felix Leiter is a horse I like for Karl Burke, who is in great form at the moment with any rain later in the day being a bonus for him. Prize Exhibit for the two Jamie’s, Osborne and Spencer, won a Novice at Nottingham by 9 lengths and whilst its hard to work out what he beat it was impressive. The form of Roossey stacks up as well with his trainer William Haggas brandishing Middle Park entries for his colt.
Our bet: 1 unit e/w Roossey @ 7/1 with Sportingbet
Enjoy your day, I wish it would all come a bit quicker and that the rain doesn’t interfere with the day’s racing. Its looks a Day 1 cracker.
The Fifth and Final Test – Christmas comes early?
I know, I know, if something appears too good to be true, it probably is! However I could counter that with if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck – its a, well you know what I mean.
The problem I have with this test is that the outcome appears too obvious and every time that happens Gamblor, the god of gambling strikes in the most unpleasant ways.
So before we rush in to this test let’s take a little time to put the facts on the board.
1. India can’t bat – somehow between the 1st test and now their previously cock-a-hoop batting line-up has lost all confidence, can’t move their feet and cant score a run. Their last 3 innings totals have been 178, 152 and 161.
2. They still haven’t worked out that our number one spinner doesn’t spin the ball – if you are reading this MS and Co – play him as a very slow medium and wack him to all parts of Surrey – he can’t bowl.
3. Our pace attack when the ball moves is the best in the World – bar none, and you have to take 20 wickets to win a test match and we are more equipped with our pace bowlers than any other country to do that – if they are all fit.
4. MS Dhoni had a nightmare as a Captain in the last test – pointless singles given away to long on and long off to new batters, no pressure applied to players who are fighting for their places, repeated short pitched bowling by guys who aren’t quick and were swinging the ball and no sign of that changing.
5. The most important – man for man we are just better than them and we know it!
6. You will note I haven’t talked about the wicket or playing conditions at all – the reason for that is that on current form whatever they serve up and I don’t expect it to be a square turner, at the moment we are better equipped to deal with any eventualities.
7. I own a Kia and this ground is called the Kia Oval – that point may be as important as the previous six as any good gambler knows.
What does all this mean? – it means that if the weather doesn’t interfere then England win. Now comes the tricky bit. I have been on Accuweather, the Met Office and Bill’s mum (where anyone who has played county cricket knows the rain comes from) and they all confirm that we are looking at no more than a little shower or two on Sunday. So much so Bill’s Mum is doing all her sheets and pillowcases on Saturday and hanging them all out to dry.
So here goes – we are going Maximum nap on England!!! There I said it. In the good old days of the 90’s my two friends Russell, Chris and I did our brains backing England for far larger amounts than we would ever consider now – so much so we each have a pact, born out of the loss of blood,health and money; that if anyone of us ever goes nap England cricket the other two are to beat the third up. I have rung both and the planets have aligned and we are all in agreement. So avoid this if you want but our recommendation is:
Back England to win – 12 units @ 5/4 with Sportingbet – C’mon England!!
The PGA Championship – A Punters Valhalla?
Valhalla is where Vikings go when they die, as long as they die with their sword in their hand. It’s Viking heaven and its just possible, that is a clue in itself. If you swop sword for putter and think about who might qualify to be in Golfers heaven after this weekend we might be on to a winner.
My mate says he was reading in the loo at 2.30am this morning and read about a guy called Moore and then went at 6.30 to get his papers to have his newsagent tell him he was backing Rory Moore this weekend – maybe that’s another omen? Lets hope we are not reduced to those measures in order to find a winner.
Golf Majors are notoriously competitive, said the man whose specialist subject is “The bleeding obvious” Well so is this one at Valhalla this week. The course plays long and hard but it has plenty of room off the tee and it means that big hitters have more of an advantage than they did at Hoylake a couple of weeks ago.
From a betting perspective it all revolves around Rory McIlroy, who at 5/1 is the shortest price he has ever been for a major. Of course he should be that price because he is the best player in the world. Putting it in to context, Tiger was often 5/2 for majors at his prime and at the moment Rory is capable of the same power and grace that Tiger had in his pomp. However we are not going to go with Rory who got us another big priced winner at Hoylake. The reason for this is that winning 3 big events in a row is tough and you can’t help believing your own publicity. Staying in the moment for any sportsman is also tough and I think this is another learning event for Rory. This time next year if he holds this form we won’t hesitate as there is no doubt his mental strength is increasing. However if that driver starts to miss his answer is to just hit it harder and that doesn’t work. So no Rory for us.
Our hit list looks like this :
Rickie Fowler – playing great golf; as well as he has ever played. He has it all, a brilliant game, good looks, a great coach (Butch Harman)and an all-round brilliant golf game. He will win a major – soon
Keegan Bradley – maddeningly quirky with his rituals and habits and nervous afflictions but a dam good player who is back to best form and just seems to float up leader boards on the big occasions. He genuinely believes in himself.
Charl Schwartzel – Frustrating, as we tipped him a couple of times and he hasn’t performed. He has all the game you need to be a star but he has to be in rhythm and he has to believe. Signs are that after welcoming a new baby in to the house in March that things are returning to normal and I think we can expect a much stronger show from him this weekend.
Matt Kuchar – this might be one tournament too early. He looked awful at Hoylake but re-found some of his game last weekend and he is another that just won’t go away when you don’t want him to win. He holes everything and doesn’t miss a green. If he does that this weekend he could be our winner.
Justin Rose– Has found a consistent game and seems in a good place. He looks strong on the golf course now and has no technical flaws in his game. He will be a top 10 golfer for the next decade.
Gary Woodland – Anyone’s outsider at 100/1 but he has a heck of game when on song. He hits it miles and gets it up and down, something you will need this weekend. He could be our lively long priced winner.
Mark Leishman – The likeable Aussie has an ugly swing but he gets it around golf courses better than most at the moment and he gets every bit out of every round with real guts and determination.
Henrik Stenson
Henrik Stenson – almost sneaking under the radar for this event is the best player on tour last year. He finished 3rd the other day and he may just be back. We may be guilty of following him over a cliff but he has more game than just about anyone bar McIlroy.
So what does our four against the field look like – it looks like this
- Rickie Fowler 22/1
- Keegan Bradley 28/1
- Charl Schwartzel 28/1
- Henrik Stenson 33/1 (he’s a Viking – see what I mean!)
The 4th Test – England vs India Old Trafford 7-11 August
All is right in the garden of English Cricket – isn’t it?
Its odd that with this really enthralling 5 test series perfectly balanced after 3 tests at 1-1, information about this game is really hard to find. In some ways I am glad it is because it forced me to read a very long and boringly written article about the Indian team written by some Indian journalists. The bottom line is they are worried and it changed how I was looking at this game.
Gautam Ghambir
They don’t think they can score a run and there is talk of Gautam Gambhir playing instead of Shikhir Dawan, who cant score a run. It shouldn’t be talk Gambhir should play and I hope he does. I would like him to play with Dawan as they are so exciting if both are confident and allowed to play with freedom. Ashwin looks destined to play and give India two spin options and with two test centuries to his name a bit more shoring up in the batting line-up.
Why did they get beaten so comprehensively at the Aegis Bowl. Simple – they couldn’t field and they couldn’t bat. Put that right and they will compete with anyone.
Morale with India is all important and I think Dhoni does a brilliant job of getting these big ego players to work for him. For that reason they need to forget the Jadeja affair – it’s done and gone, get over it. Last time this happened with Symmons and Harbhajan Singh the end scoreline read Australia 2- India 1 and another series got away because of an incident off the field affecting play on the field. They need to get tougher.
With all that talk about India and their problems, where does that leave England? Well, just at the minute tickety-boo. All fit, all rearing to go and all suddenly confident. How quickly things turn in sport. Just 1 test ago we looked like losing our Captain, dropping our best test batsman and finding a new group of bowlers. Now they all have got runs and wickets and we all love them again.
So, never mind about that nonsense, what happens this test. We are two from two and need to keep it rolling.
What do we think we know
- It should be a quick, bouncy, true and fast scoring pitch. Good batsmen like that as much as good bowlers.
- It shouldn’t turn much (that’s good because our spinner bowls straight breaks on a turner)
- The weather could play a part as it looks unsettled for the next couple of days.
- England are confident and controlling the match with their bowlers.
- India don’t look happy nor up for the fight – really, I’m not sure about that – one bad game!
- Both teams have tried incredibly hard in every session in this series.
How do they bet this game : Bets prices are England 7/4, The Draw 11/10 and India 5/1
It looks like every bookie knows what we know on the surface of it. For me the draw is too short, which means there must be some value in the other two prices and I think the value is in India at 5/1. In horseracing terms we forgive most horses one run on the basis that it was too bad to be true and on the flip side surely England’s performance was too good to be true last test. So the bet I am recommending is
4 units win India @ 2/1 draw no bet with Bet 365
England vs India – 3rd Test – Who gives a Toss?
That may sound a little reckless in the heading but the real answer is – we do. In fact if you want to have a bet in this game then you really do need to wait until the toss is made. Its that important.
The Ageas Bowl, as nice a ground and setting as it is simply isnt going to produce a pitch that can last 5 days without deteriorating to the detriment of the team batting second. The other problem is that with the dry weather we have an outfield that is like glass and for that reason the team batting first will have the best of all worlds.
Yes the team batting first will have a tricky first 90 minutes but if they can survive that without loss or perhaps just the one wicket then they will be set up to cash in. By the way – that’s how test cricket has been played for 150 years so there is nothing new about that.
So thats how we are going to play this test. Back the team batting first after the toss, to win the match. Ignore the draw, there will be no draw. Or if you have a Betfair or Betdaq account lay the draw big time and cheer on both teams.
Bet 1. Back England for 4 units @ 13/8 with Skybet – if they win the toss and bat
Bet 2. Back India for 4 units @ 5/2 with Boylesports – if they win the toss and bat
Reverse both bets if either team puts the opposition in – surely they wouldn’t be that stupid!!!
There is one other big priced bet you need to have. Alistair Cook is our beleaguered captain and the debate about if he should stay or go rages on. In my opinion he is not a great Captain but I do think he is a very good batsman and despite the fact he is out of nick currently, no person is trying harder and he hinted in the second innings at Lords to a return to form. So lets get behind him to make some money.
So – who gives a toss – we do, massively.
Lets enjoy some intense test cricket, just like every test this year. England really are trying very hard and with a bit of luck at the toss they could put it right today.
2nd Test, England vs India at Lords
There simply is nothing better than test cricket and there is nothing better than the first day of a test at Lords. I think the first two hours will set the tone of the next five days in a manner that will make betting difficult after the first session. So don’t miss it!
I expect Mike Hunt to have prepared a pitch that is full of bounce and grass and in theory that should suit our four man attack. That is assuming Jimmy Anderson isn’t banned for 4 games for his alleged dispute with Jadeja on day two of the first test. Simon Kerrigan has been called up but this is not a series he should play in. Firstly the pitches will be wrong for his spin bowling and secondly he doesn’t need to be rebuilding his career against the best players of spin in the world. Save it for next year against the West Indies who cant play spin. Good to have him around the scene but leave him for now.
So if I am right that leaves our pace men and Moen Ali to take on a batting line-up that isn’t the power it was but is still very strong against a quick and determined bowling line-up who fought hard at Trent Bridge and will get more assistance at Lords.
For England to win they have to bowl first and blow the top order away with pace in session 1 on day 1 and that will be tough but it could happen. Then they have to do the most difficult part, make 500 with a group of batters who cant buy a run at the top of the order but they can bat. Maybe this time?
My problem with that is the Indian bowlers can move it off the straight and we don’t seem to be able to play a swinging ball at the moment, which will be aided by the Lords slope. Either way this pitch will get better and better and for that reason the layers make the draw favourite and that seems perfectly logical. The thing about test cricket is that whilst it might well happen, we can see all three results become very short priced favourites in the first two days and that’s good for betting.
So here’s how we are going to play it before the match.
4 units win India – draw no bet @ 7/4 with Sportingbet
We will advise more bets as the days move on. I think this test will be a belter.
The 143rd Open Championship – Hoylake
Rarely has there been a more open, Open than at Hoylake this year.
Its possible if the wind doesn’t blow that the best in the world could rip the course apart as it lacks length and has amongst the truest greens on the circuit, without ridiculous humps and borrows.
It has its defences though. Get in the bunkers on a fairway and its a dropped shot. After a lush and warm spring the rough is penal and lost balls will be plenty but its big defence is the wind. If it blows then the quick fairways can be impossible to find for anyone but the rifle straightest. Something a certain Tiger Woods worked out with his 2 iron when he won in 2006.
Can he do it again – the answer is no. At 25-1 he is the biggest price in an Open ever and we are not tempted. He simply doesn’t have the game anymore and if we were spread betting we would be selling his finishing position. For now lets have 2 units with Betfair that he misses the cut @ 11/4.
So forgetting Woods, what are we looking for.
1. Driver Accuracy – getting the ball in play is key, yardage control is key and a good course brain crucial
2. Length – whatever you say this makes the game easier. If you can hit 2 clubs less than your opponent most times the game becomes that much easier.
3. Flight control – we need someone who doesnt hit the ball high or with lost of spin on it. For that reason I am keen to lay Bubba Watson. He simply cant succeed on this course and I recommend laying him with Betfair not top be in the top 10
4. Putting, as ever this will hold the key – lost of putts are makeable on these greens and if someone gets hot go with them.
Based on my premise above, some reason form lines and a little gut instinct my selections dont include any Americans. I tried to make a case for Jordan Spieth but he lacks experience of these conditions. Mickelson and Woods have had their day and we need to move on, Bubba I have already mentioned and the rest arent playing well.
Our four against the field are
1. 1 unit e/w Rory McIlroy @ 16/1 – He is just a mercurial player and I want him in my team. When he is hot man can he play. He has immense experience of links golf and its his time
2. 1 unit e/w Adam Scott @ 16/1 – the classy Australian knows how to play in all conditions and has won on links courses in Australia. He knows how to flight the ball and he thinks it around very well. I would be stronger on him if he could putt. That’s how good his game tee to green is – he can just about putt and still wins. He has also been practising at Hoylake all week last week as well.
3. 1 unit e/w Henrik Stenson 18/1 . My sole European pick and again someone with a huge amount of game. I think he is back to his best and his best is better than most.
4. 1 unit e/w Luke Donald @ 40/1. This is tailor made for him. Dead straight, intelligent and an above average putter on a course that doesnt need length.
It promises to be a great four days on the Long and Winding Road that leads to Open greatness in the city that brough us the Beatles and if you believe the locals – they invented football as well.
Good luck and enjoy.
Wimbledon hots up in week 2.
The big names are all heading inexorably towards the quarter finals and beyond and so far its been business as usual in the Men’s tennis. Now it starts to get really interesting as they are all playing really good tennis.
We know that Andy Murray will face Grigor Dimitrov as he should have and we also know that Novak Djokovic will play Marin Cilic. The interesting thing about all of these 4 players is that none of them dropped a set in their last 16 matches and all look in the sort of form that sees them confident of putting on the best show they can.
We are still waiting for the result of Nishikori/Raonic match but I expect that to go the way of Raonic as I just don’t think Nishikori has the game for this surface. For that reason Raonic has to be backed at 4/5 with Sportingbet to get through to play Rafa in the quarters.
Our bet 5 units win Raonic @ 4/5 with Sportingbet to beat Nishikori
In the last undecided match Roger Federer has to play Tommy Robredo and it will come as no shock for me to be tipping up Roger. Whilst he is no doubt not the spring chicken of old he is hitting the ball beautifully and hasn’t had a war in his matches yet so those older legs are going OK. If he gets past Tommy easily then look out in the quarters Stan.
So how do we bet the event now.
Like this :
1. Back Andy Murray for 5 units at 14/5 with Sportingbet to win Wimbeldon
2. Back Roger Federer and Murrayfor 2 units to be the finalists @ 11/2 with Coral
Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview
We made money again yesterday, compliments of Rizeena who was returned at a very healthy price for such a talented horse. Two big priced places, particularly with Bronze Angel meant another winning day with a 4 unit profit on the day. The last day and we are up almost 50 units this week. Ohh the glory of a winning Royal Ascot week. So on to Saturday.
2.30 The Chesham Stakes Listed – 7 furlongs
This one of the first times any of these 2 yr olds have seen a 7 furlong trip and its no small ask. Richard Hannon has won this twice in the last 10 years but honors are even amongst other trainers with the obvious point, that the big trainers have dominated this race. I can only look at form and the two that stand out are Dick Whittington for Aiden O’Brien and Toscanini for Michael Halford. Justice Well is interesting for David Elsworth as is Crown the Kitten for Wesley Ward. This is all about staying and I will go with Justice Well who is a stoutly bred colt who looks the part
Our Bet 1 unit E/W Justice Well @ 12/1
3.05 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Hcp. 1 mile 4 Furlongs
Sir Michael Stoute has dominated this race with 3 wins in the last 9 years and Arab Spring is well fancied to run a big race in what is a moderate handicap. Blue Surf for Amanda Perrett is interesting as is Hamelin for Lady Cecil. Its a tough race to sort out and if you are getting involved then let’s side with the best combination in racing – Stoute & Moore
Our Bet @ 1 unit E/W Arab Spring @ 3/1
3.45 The Hardwicke Stakes Group 2 1 mile 4 furlongs
They can all win this race. Lots of ability at this level, Telescope could make it a big day for Stoute and Moore, Hillstare for the same stable with Dettori on board must rate a mention and Camborne is talented enough to win as well. I am going to side with the global traveller who represents an ujp and coming stable – Dandino for Marco Botti. I think we need to catch him fresh and tomorrow is his day
Our Bet : 1 unit E/W Dandino @ 8/1
4.25 The Diamond Jubilee Stakes Group 1 – 6 furlongs
The six furlong speedsters are out and the Edward Lynam band wagon rolls on with Slade Power looking to create a very special double for the Irish Trainer after Tuesdays success. Aljamaaheer looks like strong opposition to give Roger Varian his 3rd winner of the week and I can make a case for the 3 yr old Astaire for Kevin Ryan.
Our bet : 2 units E/W Aljamaaheer @ 4/1
5.00 The Wokingham Stakes Class 2 6 furlongs
No tougher race in the week. It could be 4 winners in the week for Roger Varian if Rocky Ground delivers his true ability. This four year old looks to have plenty of speed and ability and looks up to winning a race like this. Baccarrat will run a big race and seems to be at the top of his game as is Ninjago for Richard Hannon. Good horses win this race and weight is no barrier so last years winner York Glory will have no fears carrying 9-9.
Our bet : 1 unit E/W @ 10/1 Rocky Ground
5.30 The Queen Alexandra Stakes Class 2 2 mile 5 fulongs
A long distance curtain closer wraps up a brilliant week. I’m focusing on four in the race Dark Ranger at a big price, El Salvador, Tiger Cliff and Brass Ring.
In the end I’m siding with a horse I have been following and who hasn’t delivered yet but could do today.
Our bet : 1 unit E/W Brass Ring @ 8/1
Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview
Another great day for our followers, kicking off with the 8/1 winner Baitha Alga and finishing the day with the 8/1 winner Elite Army. In between time we had the 18/1 Lustrous run a huge race to finish second which was as good as a 4/1 winner. Great fun and a really profitable day for punters with a 17 unit winning day at Ascot. Now to day four and if we keep our heads we could do well again with some fancied runners and some real reasons to be positive.
2.30 The Albany Stakes Group 3 Fillies
24 go to post in a race that has been won 3 times by favourites in the last 10 years with 5 horses over 10/1 including a 50/1 winner in the last decade. All the top stables are represented and as a form student we can only go on what we have seen, not how much they might have improved from one race to the next. With that in mind the obvious form chance is the favourite Patience Alexander for David Evans. I’m not sure what the Queen will think of meeting Mr Evans but the good news is that its early in the day!!!. That aside I saw this horse win at York and was mightily impressed. The horse it beat Tiggy Wiggy was second here two days ago in a tougher race so the form is rock solid. Elite Gardens will have its fans as a horse with outstanding potential but for me I am going to side with our American trainer, Wesley Ward and his filly Sunset Glow. Easing up, this filly, on ground described as good – not fast, just good, ran a time of 58.23 for 5 furlongs, around a bend at Belmont on grass. Now unless that’s a short track that is an amazing time and one that none of our winners have achieved yet.
Our Bet : 2 units E/W Sunset Glow @ 5/1 and 2 units E/W Patience Alexander @ 9/2 both with Skybet
3.05 The Wolferton Handicap – Listed 1 mile 2 furlongs
The globe trotting, money spinning Wigmore Hall will be popular but I think he may have been to war a time or two too many, Bold Sniper will be also be popular and is a rightful favourite for Messrs Stoute and Moore and wouldn’t be a shock winner and Café Society who was just behind him last year at Ascot will fancy his chances of turning the tables but for me I will go with a trainer in great form, John Gosden and a horse who loves a battle and showed he was in good touch against the best with a 2nd on the A/W, that horse being Dick Doughtywylie.
Our Bet : 1 unit E/W Dick Doughtywylie @ 9/1 with Skybet
3.45 The King Edward VII Stakes Group 2 1 mile 4 furlongs
Western Hymm was said to be a bit of a superstar and having been beaten 9 lengths in the Derby wasn’t disgraced so it interesting that Will Buick has jumped off him and teamed up with Eagle Top instead. I expected more from Seagull Star but it might have been Chester that did for him. Snow Sky has all the right connections and noises coming from the stable to win a race that his trainer has won twice before but I was very impressed when I saw Adelaide win at the Curragh and I think he will have come on for that run to give the O’Briens their third winner of the week.
Our bet 3 units E/W Adelaide @ 2/1 Sky
4.25 The Coronation Stakes – Group 1 for Fillies 1 mile
12 quality fillies take to the round course and its no surprise they go 3/1 the field because I think these are a very strong bunch. My Titania is favourite but first time out to win against those with a run is a tough ask, even for master trainer John Oxx, who thankfully is now in much better form than he was in 2013. I haven’t been able to put a line through any of these. Only two horses have won at prices shorter than 2/1 in the last 10 years with no trainer dominating the race and RPR’s all around the 120 mark, as you would expect of a Group 1 race.
I really like the attitude of Rizeena and having had a prep race where she looked like she needed it I think we are getting a much bigger price than we should based on 2013 form. So lets go with that for the Clive Brittain charge.
Our Bet 1 unit E/W Rizeena @ 15/2 with Betvictor
5.00 The Queens Vase – Listed Race 2 miles
Not the most fascinating of contests for these 3 year olds. A well bred bunch who lack a turn of foot to compete in high quality shorter races. So their trainers are guessing at who stays this trip best and who can quicken at the end of it. For that reason so are we. Looking deeper behind the horses and looking for someone who might have though about this race as their best chance of a Royal winner I have seen beyond those in the front 3, they being, Marzocco, Hartnell and Century, one of whom may well win but I think I know enough about all of them to know they are the right price. I have settled on Min Alemarat for Marco Botti, who with David O’Meara and Ed De Giles is my favourite trainer. He is about to explode as a trainer this year and this might just be the kick start today.
Our bet 1 unit E/W Min Alemarat @ 8/1 with Skybet
5.35 The Buckingham Palace Stakes – Class 2 Handicap 7 furlongs
I don’t normally wax lyrical about these cavalry charges as they are hard work and this 29 are no exception to the rule. I have listed four that I thought worthy of further investigation and I may still have missed the winner. Those four are Sir Reginald, who likes big fields and is in cracking form at a mark where he could win, Russian Realm, who everyone has found and is the favourite, Rene Mathis who may still be unexposed and improving and will love this race and finally Bronze Angel who ran so well here last year and is off a similar mark and is a better horse this year than last and finally has his ground and conditions.
Our bet 1 unit e/w Bronze Angel @ 16/1 with Skybet
and 1 unit E/W Sir Reginald @ 50/1 with Betvictor
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