Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview

magicianAnother winning day for our followers with a 10 unit profit. After 2 days it looks like the bookmakers are on their knees. The question is – will today be their fightback or can we- the punters keep piling on the misery. It doesn’t look an easy task but no day does at this fabulous Royal meeting. Our thoughts for today are :

 

2.30 The Norfolk Stakes – Group 2  5 furlongs

Surprisingly only 9 go to post in a race that has seen 4 favourites and 4 more horses 4/1 or less win out of the last 10 years. The favoured horses run well in this race and sometimes if it is not their form its their physical appearance that catches the eye, like last years winner the American horse, No Nay Never. He was a beast of a sprinter and looked more like a four year old than a 2 year old, such was his size and scope. This year trainer Wesley Ward looks to repeat the trick with the once raced To Be Determined whose only start yielded a 3rd place, beaten 8 lengths at Kentucky over 4.5 furlongs – the ideal prep for Royal Ascot!!!!. He should know, he did it last year. He takes on some good horses here in Baith Alga, impressive at Chester and even more impressive at Epsom, Mukhmal, two from two with the latest at Chester, a good break since then and the horse he beat at Chester Roudee running a good race yesterday here to finish 6th in the opener, and The Great War from Aiden O’Brien who surprisingly has never won this race. The Great War would be an apt winner but he needs to be good to win this and the evidence of two small race wins would see me reluctant to row in with him at the forecast short price of 5/4.

Our bet,  2 units e/w @ 7/1  Baith Alga  and 2 units e/w Mukhmal @ 5/1 with Betvictor

 

3.05 The Tercentenary Stakes Group 3  1 mile 2 furlongs

Again just the 9 go to post in a race that has also been kind to favourite backers with only one horse recorded at a 20/1 price in 10 years and the rest all less than 8/1 with 4/10 favourites winning. We are going to focus on proven form and quality and look at Cannock Chase whose latest win now looks even better and improves his progressive profile, Mutakayyef, who was juts behind another of our fancies, Barley Mow at Newmarket and at a bigger price Somewhat is interesting as I think he is tough and now race fit and ready to put up a real fight.

My belief is that Somewhat will enjoy the uphill finish and the pace of the race and with question marks against all but the favourite I will take the larger odds on offer in the belief that a place is my worst case scenario. What Royal meeting would be complete without a Mark Johnston winner

Our Bet : 2 units e/w @ 14/1 Somewhat with Coral

 

3.45 The Ribblesdale Stakes  Group 2 – 1 mile 4 furlongs

Fancied horses have run well in this race but we have also had a 22/1 and a 25/1 winner in the last 10 years in what is normally a classy staying race. This one is no exception. The French Raider Vazira brings some top credentials in to the race but this is by far the quickest ground she will have raced on. Inchilla has the best local form with a combatative 4th in the Oaks and a reason to suspect that there is more maturity left in the horse at this trip but my question with her is if she has the class to win a race of this nature. Bracelet, Talmada and Terrific could all surprise but that’s what it would be. One that I find very interesting is Lustrous for Richard Hannon. She has  the pace to win a 1 mile listed race at York and on breeding looks like she is crying out for a trip of this nature. At the forecast price of 12/1 that will do for me.

Our Bet 1 unit E/W at 18/1 Lustrous with Betvictor

 

brown panther4.25 The Ascot Gold Cup 2 miles 4 furlongs

The amazing thing about this race is that the while the Ascot stakes over the same trip is dominated by jumps trainers this one hasn’t been won by a jumps trainer in 10 years. In fact Aiden O’Brine has won it 5 times, Saeed Bin Suroor twice, Michael Stoute twice and Elle Lallouche, account for the rest.  The good news is that favourites have won 6/10 and only one big priced 20/1 shot has gone in to mess up punters books. So where does that leave us?

With this lot – the short priced Aiden ( this is my race)O’Brien with Leading Light, my favourite horse in training, Brown Panther, Tac De Boitron, a revelation since moving to Marco Botti, Simenon who globe trots these distance races at will and always runs well, the Queens horse Estimate who produced the perfect result last year by winning this race and Altano the German raider who has won a Group 1 over this trip in France. That is the ingredients of a great race. Possibly in my memory the best field we have seen assembled for quite some time.

With all those credentials – who wins? I would love the Panther to win but I just dont know if he stays the extra four furlongs. If he does he will give them a lot to do. Estimate has won first time up but that was over 2 miles and some of these are ready with a run under their belts. Leading Light is class but will he stay the extra 4 furlongs? Its a very short price to find out he doesn’t. Strange things happen in the last 2 furlongs of this race and I’m not going to take 6/4 about a horse that I don’t know if he stays. If he wins well done all of you.

My two against the field are Brown Panther – as I think he will stay and Altano who I know does stay and is also match fit. I genuinely cant wait for this race.

Our Bet 1 unit e/w Brown Panther @ 6/1 and the same bet Altano @ 11/1 Boylesports

 

5.00 The Britannia Stakes Class 2 – 1 mile

With 30 runners spread right across the track its not for the feint hearted. My short list started off at 7 and when I did my pricing I saw I didn’t have one of them in the first 4 in the betting. However in races like this I am not bothered about that. My view is you need a horse dropping back in trip that hasn’t won over the longer trip and hasn’t just gone up in the handicap. They need to have a touch of class and are about to unleash that on the field. So lets see if with 7 guesses we can name the winner. The list is Mindurownbusiness, Bilimpi, Chatez, Magnus Maximos, First Flight, Suzi Connoisseur and Zampos Manos.  The favoured runners are Idea, Hors De Combat, Zawanna and Table Rock and I wont be claiming victory if any of those win.

Our Bet : My two with both on the same side of the track are – Zampos Manos and Mindurownbusiness, back them both 1 unit e/w @ 33/1 and 16/1 respectively with Sportingbet

 

5.35 King George V Stakes Handicap  1 mile 4 furlongs

With 19 runners it’s rarely a get out of jail free card but good horses abound and the betting is always a good indication in this race.

Wrangler looks like continuing his promising career after winning at Haydock and Salisbury and whilst these were on soft ground he should handle this quicker surface adequately and is a worthy favourite. Elite Army is one I am keen to see again after a convincing performance at Sandown and slight doubt about the longer trip. Arab Dawn put together back to back wins, is full of confidence and was only just too good for Personal Opinion who is also interesting with Newbury second Windshear also capable of a big performance. There will  be plenty of supporters for Captain Morley who triumphed at Chester in a good race.

It doesn’t make finding the winner easier by going through them all but it fills some copy doesnt it!!!. So after much deliberation who do we side with in the lucky last –  Windshear – highest rated on my books and if Cannock Chase runs well earlier in the card this will look a good thing

Our bet 1 unit e/w @ 8/1 Windshear and 1 unit e/w Elite Army @ 8/1 with Bet365

 

Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview

queen royal ascotA cracking start to Royal Ascot with The Wow Signal going in at a massive 7/1 for us and of course our nap Kingman electrifying the course with a burst of speed that was reminiscent of what became the Elephant in the room yesterday as no-one wanted to compare him to the mighty Frankel. His dominance though was Frankelesk and we loved it. We ended up with a massive 19 unit profit on the day.  How to follow that is the question and our race by race guide sets out our day 2 strategy.

 

2.30 The Jersey Stakes Class 1 7 Furlongs

A really enjoyable if difficult start to the day with a very strong group of 3yo’s who come out to play in this hotly contested 7 furlong race. Aiden O’Brien has worked this race out, and it’s requirements having it won it for the last two years and for that reason commands respect. Only one horse greater than 11/1 has won this race in the last 10 years and 7 out of 10 winners have been less than 10/1. So fancied horses run well in this race. We will concentrate on those who have tried 8 furlongs and run well as we think you need stamina on this straight course with its uphill finish and of course no small amount of speed. The fancied horses for us are, Muwarry for John Gosden whose latest run in a Group 1 in France beaten just 2l is the best form shown at the moment and for that reason is the favourite. Mustajeeb for Dermot Weld who got within 7 lengths of Kingman in his latest run and in the context of yesterdays romp that looks very good form. Giovanni Boldini for Aiden O’Brien who also has collateral Group 1 form and at a bigger price Big Time who performed creditably in the Kingman race in Ireland without showing his best on the quicker ground all three of the fancied runners are drawn across the track and this is where pace in the race may dictate who performs best.

Our Bet : 1 unit E/w Giovanni Boldini @ 14/1 with Coral  

 

3.05 Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 Fillies  5 furlongs

The lady speedsters line-up in this renewal in which over the last 10 years only one clear favourite has won and excluding that winner no horse has started shorter than 4/1 with 3 winners over 20/1. There are some rules with fillies that we like to follow, like following one in form – they all are!!!, Those that handle the crowd and build-up – we wont know that until its too late!!! and proven experience over this course and distance – tough with this inexperience. And that’s why this race is so hard to pick a winner. If you want to bet then I think we could cover it with this five,  Tiggy Wiggy, Harrys Dancer, Blue Aegean and Anthem Alexander.

If you give me two against the field it would be

One Unit EW both Anthem Alexander @ 3/1 and Blue Aegean @ 20/1  both with Skybet

 

magician3.45 Prince of Wales Stakes  Group 1 1 mile 2 furlongs

I am really looking forward to seeing Treve line-up in this race. Betting is all about opinions and the one you need to have in this race to have a bet revolves around answers to the following. After a prep race where Treve didn’t travel in France and was only just beaten by a horse who has now won 3 group 1’s this year is she back to her best – the same form where she destroyed a class field in the Arc last year. If she is then that suggests that you have to simply lump in to her today because she will be too good for this lot. If you think not and that the ground is too fast and the trip too short then that brings in Breeders Cup sensation, Magician, York champion The Fugue and possibly Dank. In fact without Treve it would be a really tight affair and may still prove to be. Lets hope for our benefit it isn’t.

I am rowing in with Madame Head and betting with long trousers in this race

Our Bet 6 units win Treve @ 8/11 with William Hill

 

4.25 The Duke of Cambridge Stakes – Group 2, 1 mile

A number of these have plied their trade in Group 1 company and with some success. A couple are on recovery missions and a few are tilting at windmills in their ambition. However I think its a great race that revolves around the following horses. Sky Lantern, Certify, Integral and Esoterique, with possibly Fiesolana being a lively outsider.

I think the most progressive and one open to the most improvement is Integral and I have been keen to see this one line-up since its run at Newmarket where she was beaten by Esoterique. I think she will turn the tables on that form. Sky Lantern bothers me the most as I think she is capable but not straight forward.

Our Bet : 2 units E/W Integral @ 11/4 with Skybet

 

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup Class 2,  1 mile

A great race, 31 take to the stalls in the annual cavalry charge with just a stone in weight between the top and bottom. Its exciting and it takes a certain type of horse to excel in this race. They can be really well handicapped – that is unexposed, or they can be horses who just love wide tracks, big fields and loads of pace. Previous winners Prince of Johanne and Belgian Bill demand respect as previous winners as does Ingelby Angel who loves big fields and a frenetic pace. I am going to side with two in this race and they are at either side of the course.

Abseil looked good at Chester and even better when he hacked up at Epsom and his Chester conqueror Herecomeswhen who after winning went in to a group race and performed creditably give me the other side of the track and a big price for a horse who I think is still unexposed on this ground.

Our Bet : 1 units E/w Abseil @ 6/1 with Coral and 1 unit E/W Herecomeswhen @ 28/1 with Betvictor

 

5.35 The Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1 mile

No easy get out this one but fancied horses run well with 3 favourites and a host of single figured winners in the last 10 years. In fact no winner has been greater than 16/1 in the last 10 years and 7 single figures winners. On the layers sheets only three are less than 12/1, they are Crowleys Law, Psychometry and Muteela. Logic says the winner will come form these three. With 25 in the race we will take a punt on 2 again

1 unit E/W both Muteela @ 8/1 with Bet 365 and Hot Coffee 33/1 with Sportingbet

Royal Ascot Preview – Day 1.

Prince CharlesRoyal Ascot is something every punter should experience at least once in their lives. It is simply the very best day at racing you can have anywhere in the world. That doesnt mean that its a better days racing than say Cheltenham, it is simply unique. An amazing blend of history, style and horse flesh that cant be bettered in the world.

So all that mood setting aside how do we bet at Royal Ascot. The buzz word is caution. These are the very best horses of their genre all competing against each other and their are so many “unpredictables” that bookmakers just love it. The rules remain the same though. Look for the class, look for form of horse and trainer and then look for jockeys who excel on the big stage.

Today we go through the card as we will on each day and remember you dont have to bet in every race but if you think somehintg we have written has a resonance with your own thoughts then go with it.

 

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes – Group 1. 1 mile

The race revolves around Toranado. If you want to back him then you might get 11-10 or slightly bigger by the off as I think a lot of the pro’s will be out to lay him today. His 10f race at York was poor at the end of the season and his contests with Dawn Approach were exciting but not enough to say he is unbeatable against a quality field. However, who is going to beat him if you want to lay him. I think I can make a good case for Verrazano for Aiden O’Brien, Soft Falling Rain will enjoy both the ground and the track and is not that far behind Toranado on official figures and both Tullius and Side Glance are capable of a big performance.

It is probably Toranado’s to lose but I would rather be against him than with him.

Our Bet – Lay Toranado for 4 units @ 1.90 with Betfair

 

3.05  The Coventry Stakes Group 2 – 6 furlongs

Always a tough race. It really is about staying for these 2 year old’s. They run with the choke out, try to do it on 2 breaths and some really don’t like the big occasion and the massive field. You need maturity, a high cruising speed and a touch of class to win this and the betting normally gets the key contenders right if not the result.

Again Aiden O’Brien’s War Envoy sets the standard and Kool Kompany has more experience and an unbeaten 3/3 record coming in to this race. Adaay for William Haggas looks a likely type with 2/2. Both Jungle Cat and Portamento look very progressive as well.

I think it is a big ask to win after just one race but on the evidence of that one race I really like the chances of The Wow Signal for John Quinn, who destroyed his field, as he should but it was the manner in which he did it that was so impressive.

Our bet – 1 unit E/W  The Wow Signal – Bet Victor @ 7/1

 

3.45 The King’s Stand Stakes Group 1, 5 furlongs

The very best speedsters on show of the flying 5 at Ascot. Its likely this will be contested by the top 5 in the betting. Hot Streak, so impressive at Haydock last time, Shea Shea, who has tons of pace and stamina and needs something to run at, Sole Power who has dominated early season sprints and Pearl Secret, who appeared to have no excuses when behind Hot Streak. Just outside those though I really like Ahtoug who, if they do go too quickly could really pick up the pieces at the end and may be a bit of value.

Our Bet : 1 unit E/W Ahtoug @ 14/1 Sportingbet

 

Kingman4.25 St James Palace Stakes Group 1, 1 Mile

One of my favourite races. These three year old’s have wonderful qualities of speed, stamina and most importantly a will to win. You would be proud to own any of them. In theory and on paper Kingman is too good for all of them and whilst races aren’t run on paper I don’t think my eyes lie. Not too much detail on this and unless Kingman has a bad day he will win. His stable don’t make mistakes and they know a good horse. He is a good horse over this trip.

Our Bet : 5 units win Kingman @ 11/10 with William Hill

 

5.00 Ascot Stakes Class 2 Hcp – 2 mile 4 furlongs

A staying race that has a great punting profile with jumps trainers dominating the last 10 runnings with 7 wins by the Jumps boys. No winner has been shorter than 11/2 in the last 10 years and RPR’s have averaged 98. Lieutenant Miller is a likely place to start as he seems to love these distance races. Fro mthe same stable Suraj looks to have loads of potential, Plinth will be no back marker for the O’Briens and Villa Royale comes in to my reckoning for my favourite trainer. Brockwell should also be respected off a lowly weight and a horse coming back in to form, who I really think needs this trip.

Our Bet : 1 unit E/W Suraj @ 12/1 and 1 unit E/W Brockwell @ 14/1 both with Betvictor

 

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) 5 furlongs

There are two horse I have been waiting for in this race today. The first is Mind of Madness with Jamie Spencer on Board for David Brown and the second is Merdon Castle for David Elsworth with Ryan Moore up. Its not a race to get heavily involved but because of collateral form their is an interest both Adaay, who just beat Mind of Madness and Kool Kompany who was in front of Merdon Castle, run in the Coventry would influence my bet.

So rather than put up a bet we will list a strategy. Whichever of the two horses runs best in the Coventry we will have one unit E/W on the respective horse that they conquered. I have a sneaking suspicion that will be Merdon Castle and put Ryan Moore on the score sheet in the last.

 

One other day 1 strategy is

Top Jockey for the meeting : Joseph O’Brien @ 9/4 with Betfred – 4 units win

 

 

All Blacks vs England – 2nd Test Dunedin 8.00am Saturday

Fortune favours the Brave

 

If these two teams are capable of delivering a second game to the level of last weeks cracker then roll on Saturday because we cant wait.

England Rugby Union

Swing Low – Sweet Chariot

England have 5 players returning to a side that played exceptional, error free rugby. Billy Twelvetrees is immense in the centre. He makes yards over the gain line regularly, his tackling is superb and he reads the game as well as anyone. Tom Woods is mammoth in the pack and Danny Care and Owen Farrell give us an embarrassment of riches in the halfs and kicking department.

So that’s it then, we bring 5 even better players in to the team and we nearly won last time so we win this time, right? Not so fast Speedy Gonazalez.  There is a little matter of the team in Black who regularly put out the best 15 players in the World. A team that simply don’t lose. A team that have only lost twice at Dunedin since 1963.

Haka

No way for a grown man to behave

The facts don’t lie – the All Blacks go in to this game as massive favourites because everyone believes last Saturday is the worst they can play. That may be right – but it better be.

We will improve 15% on what we achieved last week and obviously New Zealand need to improve similarly or they will lose.

Either way it promises to be a cracker and the prices quoted by the layers are wrong. We need to take advantage of this price line now.

Our Bet : 5 units win England @ 6/1 with Skybet

 

 

 

1st Test – England vs Sri Lanka – Lords – Free Money?

Surely those prices cant be right – can they?

lordsThe 1st test of any series at Lords is always one of those special occasions and whilst I wouldn’t normally rush to St Johns to see the Sri Lankan’s I think this could be one with turning up for.

All that nonsense about Josh Butler being “mankadded” is just that nonsense. He was an idiot, not even giving the bowler the respect of watching him bowl the delivery before leaving his crease and I wouldn’t have just allowed him to be run out I would have sacked him from the team for costing us the match – moron.

Test Cricket is a man’s game and this one will be played hard and I don’t think there are many mentally tougher teams than the Sri Lankans. Its possible that we have more ability then them but I’m not sure we have the “nouse” to win a test of this intensity just yet.

sri lankaA new opener for Cooke to take out to the middle in Robson, Ballance, who I am not convinced about, Root, who I am running out of patience with and a couple of possible, non proven bowlers says to me we need to be looking elsewhere for our money in this match.

A green wicket says result to me and for that reason I want to be with the Sri Lankans who are just a ridiculous price.

Our bet 8 units win Sri Lanka @ 7/2 with Skybet

Get on now.

US Open Golf – The Start of the Summer Solstice of Sport

Pinehurst No2Ever since Tony Jacklin broke the hoodoo back in 1970 Europeans have believed they could win the toughest assignment the USPGA can set, just like defending champion, Justin Rose. This year the players return to Pinehurst No2. For me one of the best looking courses in the US and an entirely different test for our golfers since the re-design by the two Bills, Crenshaw and Coore.

Wider fairways and very different types of rough mean that when you do leave the short grass, imagination, flare, confidence and no small amount of luck will be needed to get up and down.

That said its possible that with more room off the tee some of our more wayward players may not visit the rough as often and so comes the prospect of a different type of winner featuring this week. A Par 70 course that measures 7,562 yards is one heck of a test for any golfer and I wouldn’t expect the winning score to be more than 7 under par this week. Who will post that score – that’s the challenge.

For my winner I want, length, great scramble skills and some goodish form with plenty of quality behind it.

 

My Tips for this week are

phil1. Phil Mickelson – the great man is finding form and has the best set of skills to handle this course. He invented scrambling and knows shots the others haven’t thought of. He will miss some fairways and on a different course I wouldn’t think of him for a US Open but on this one he could get away with it and with a decent finish last weekend he might be starting to find a game

1 unit E/W @ 18/1 with Sportingbet

 

 

henrik_stenson_1_lg2. Henrik Stenson – a huge amount of belief from a guy who simply showed everyone how to play the game at the back end of last season. He can do it all and hits it real long. Tough to get back where he was but last weekend at the Nordea Open showed his game is in pretty good shape and if he feels good about his game then look out.

1 unit E/W @ 28/1 with Sportingbet

 

Victor Debuisson

 

3. Victor Dubuisson – what a player he was in the Accenture. He has it all, he’s long, he attacks and he can get it up and down. He too started to find his game last weekend in the Nordea and he isnt frightened of anyone. He may not win this one but he will win a major in the next 5 years and he wont be this price for any more majors going forward

1 unit E/W @ 100/1 with Betfair

 

 

World Cup 14 – Betting Strategy

Anyone can predict before the event that Brazil and Argentina will probably do well.

Brasil TeamEven KPMG Accountants after analysing the last 10 World Cups came up with a set of results that agreed 100% with all the odds compilers in the world – whoopee, that was a worthwhile piece of work wasnt it!!!. So how does any of that help us when on any given day, just like in 1973 when England pummelled Poland and yet still lost, any team can beat any team. The answer is, it doesnt. So what we have to do is find the 50/1 Sri Lanka of the Cricket World Cup and then back our instincts knowing that we have the edge on price. That’ s the key.

So having worked out a strategy, what does it mean in real terms. We think it means this:

 

Who Wins the World Cup

Spain TeamWe think that Spain will retain their crown. They have the most complete set of domestic footballers playing in one of the best leagues in the World. Obviously concerns about striker, Diego Costa’s fitness are something to be aware of but their midfield is the best in the world and they can all score goals.

 

Back Spain – 4 units e/w @ 13-2 with Bet 365

 

Best Big Priced Team

This has to be France. They rarely have a bad tournament, or if they do then it really is a shocker, so you will know your fate early and they seem to be peaking at the right time.

Back France – 1 unit e/w @ 25/1 with Boylesports

 

Australia SocceroosShock Team at a Price to Qualify from their Group

Australia look over priced in Group B and whilst it would be a shock for them to outpoint Holland and Chile they just don’t know how to lie down and you will get a great run for your money. There is always an upset and this could be it.

1 unit win Australia to qualify from Group B @ 12/1 with Corals

 

Belgium teamBest Equipped to make the Quarter Finals

This one we give to Belgium. They have a great squad, little or no pressure to succeed and a real belief . They have to get past Algeria, Russia and South Korea to qualify top of their group and then after that they could end up with Portugal or Ghana to get past in order to make it to the Quarters where its anyone’s game.,

Back Belgium to be eliminated in the Quarter Finals @ 4/1 with Corals -2 units win

 

Qualification Treble

We fancy these three teams under the radar to all qualify and think it makes a great treble.

Belgium @ 1-5, Ivory Coast @ 11/10, Italy 4-9 – Corals  3 units Treble.

 

England – How to Play

England 2014 WCAnd Finally. What piece would be complete without England in our strategy. Well surprisingly they look a bit of value in a few places. We all want England to do well and if they do the nation needs some money to celebrate. Oxlade-Chamberlain is crucial to any England success as he has pace and that scares defenders. Other than that we have an efficient squad who don’t make too many mistakes and possibly a match winner or two which is crucial to World Cup success.

Back us to qualify @ 4/7 with Sportingbet for a massive 7 units. Then you have a position in each game without worrying too much about results.

Then have a tasty 2 units win @ 7/2 on us to make the Quarter Finals with Bet 365  &

A 3 unit win to win the World Cup at 28/1 with Bet 365 who will then refund your losing bet when we get eliminated on Penalties

Now that’s a great concession. World Cup Image

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chester Day 3 Preview

Another 2 units profit yesterday makes it 4 in total over the 2 days so far. Its been magical racing and Wednesday is the best fields I have seen at Chester in 10 years. Really enjoyed it so far. However today is another proposition and challenge and with the changing ground a tough one. Hopefully we have found a way in across the card and we can power on to more profits

1.45 Sportingbet.com Handicap

A tough starter, there are some well handicapped horses here who, if they come back to form could bolt up. For me C&D form and draw are vital and although not in startling form at present I want to be with Big Johnny De. 1 units e/w @ 7/1 Sportingbet

2.15 Betfair Dee Stakes

The defection pf Sloane Avenue doesn’t make it any easier but I am going to put aside the recent bad run of Bow Creek and go with a horse that I think will like the ground ,where a number of others wont and a horse who is proven at a high level. He also beat Barley Mow recently who then came out an won in gritty style last weekend  1 unit e/w @ 5/1 Bet 365

2.45 Boodles Ormonde

Sadly Mt Athos has come out of the race. However there are still 4 good horses and I love Brown Panther. I know the stable know when he is right and they are backing him this morning. He also likes small fields so its ideal.  Brown Panther 2 units win @ 13/8 Sportingbet

3.15 Crabbies Handicap

Tight contest. Again could be a two horse race between See the Sun and Blithe Spirit. I will opt for the C&D form of Eric Alstons charge – 2 units e/w @ 100/30 with Sportingbet

3.50 Betfair Handicap

Tough contest, lots of pace and lots of well handciapped horses on old form. Verse of Love will be popular and will try to make it. Im siding with another C&D horse, drawn well, King of Eden to make a double for Eric Alston. 1 unit e/w @ 7/1 Sportingbet

4.25 Merseyrail Maiden

Destinys Kitten could run a big one and so could the Queen’s horse. Polar Eyes is in great form but I’m siding with Sighora for a trainer in good form and very talented and a Jockey on the score sheet already this week Sighora 2 units e/w @ 5/2 Bet 365

5.00 LDF Handicap

Tough form lines in the last to read, Running Deer will be all the rage. I fancy Ultimate, a talented Chaser who won off 70 back in Oct and will bring guts and strength to a race where you will need both in spades. He also has talented apprentice Megan Carberry up today – 1 unit e/w Ultimate @ 7/1 Sportingbet

 

 

 

Chester – Day 2 Preview

After a 2 unit winning day yesterday with a bet in every race at Chester we were looking forward to today – that was until it started raining. Sadly this forecast looks set for the day and the ground will undoubtedly change. For that reason we have looked for horses that can go on the changing ground and that represent some value. The card was tough enough before this. The only saving grace is that we may get a crop of non runners to eliminate some. Excuses aside – lets have a real go.

Chester Day 2Chester race

1.45  The IG Handicap

Any one of 9 could win this. One of the best 10f handicaps i have ever seen at Chester. Wigmore Hall, globetrotting million pound winner, Sennockian Star who looked like he could be anything last year, Mirsaale, btn just 7 lengths in the Derby, Anaconda, unexposed and locally trained and with Croquembouche and Party Royal we have loads of pace. My action centre’s on two. That’s Plenty and Marcret. I just favour the Irish Raider as I think this horse is versatile in terms of ground, trip and course and he has a great draw in 2.   1 unit e/w That’s Plenty @ 7/1 Sportingbet

2.15 Betfair Huxley Stakes – Group 3

Another terrific Race with last years winner and runner-up in Danadana and Highland Knight. For me I am going to believe my eyes in this one and Noble Mission destroyed Telescope and is a horse going places. Perhaps not to the heights of his brother Frankel but he looks like he has hardened up.  Noble Mission, 2 units e/w @ 11/4 Betvictor

2.45 MBNA Chester Vase Group 3

5 Derby Entries and 2 King Edward entries out of 8 runners, sees this as one of the best renewals. Can Carlo Bugatti follow Ruler of the World to Derby Glory for his stable or will this be a stepping stone for UK horses. I was torn between Scotland and Seagull Star and whilst Carlo Bugatti could be anything he is not the stables number one Derby hope and I am going to side with Seagull Star – 1 unit e/w @ 5/1 with Bet 365

3.15 Boodles Handicap

Some interesting runners. I think it revolves around Muteela, Hot Coffee and Brian Noble. I am opting for Brian Noble who I think will prove, ironically, to be one of Dr Koukash’s best signings. 1 unit e/w @ 13/2 Bet 365

3.50 T&L Leasing Maiden

Not a great race with lots of horses needing further or lacking experience. I have it as a two horse race. Ballymore Castle and London Life and I think there is more value in London Life –   1 unit e/w @ 6/1 Betvictor

4.25 Betfair Handicap

Tough one, all the money is for Jazz and his potential. I think he is too short and he may well go in but we will swerve him today. I’m going with the good draw and ability of Quickaswecan in a race with lots of collateral form.  1 unit e/w @ 13/2 Bet 365

5.00 Investec Handicap

Tough one to finish with but I think the jumps boys will fight this one out and if it weren’t for the draw it would be local trainer Donald McCain with Dispour, however its likely David Pipe has a lurker in this race with Red Seventy who I fancy to run a big race regardless of the ground – 1 unit e/w @ 10/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stan James Chester Cup – Day 1 Preview

Chester kicks off the first of the provincial festivals of flat racing for the year.

Those who love their racing take in both Chester and York and put themselves through physical, mental and financial torture as they try to party hard for three days and punt themselves to distraction. Ohh how we love it.

stan&jamesSo today we come up with the Stan James Chester Cup day 1 preview of how to give yourself the edge and if you stick to our principals then we think we can get you ahead over the 3 days. Its hard to have discipline but that’s what we need to put a score on the board – or more particularly in your pocket

1.45Manor House Stables – Lilly Agnes, The form here revolves around a race at Musselburgh, where the  2nd favourite in this race, Mukhamal beat the  favourite, Cheerio Sweetie. Form suggests that Cheerio Sweetie was inconvenienced at a vital stage and may have beaten Mukhamal but for that. I dont think so. However the draw and the big weight pull tells me that I need to be with Cheerio Sweetie. Unoriginal but I just cant see Roudee from stall 9 getting in the fight at the weights either.   2 units e/w Cheerio Sweetie @ 5/2

2.15Cheshire Oaks – A Good race, very good horses. Terrific, for Aiden O’Brien was expected to be all the rage after an eye catching 3rd, needing further in a listed race where the 4th has won a listed contest since. With Aidens record here surely a certainty. Well the bookies prices dont say that and there is strong support for Bright Approach who was impressive at Newbury. Given the lack of sustained support for Terrific I will go with Mr Gosdens horse    2 units e/w @ 9/4 Bright Approach

chester-stanjames2.45 The Stan James Chester Cup. We have covered this in detail in our previous post and whilst the money is for the front two in the betting after the Ripon race I think that race fell apart and I’m not sure the extra 2.5 furlongs plays to either horses strength. I do think Communicator was staying on at the end of his Lingfield Race and he will be spot on today for a stable in great form. He also represents a bit more value.  1 unit e/w @ 9/1 Communicator

3.15 Stellar Group Handicap –  A typical Chester sprint. You could name a few in this race and normal judgement says draw and pace is needed. There is plenty of that in this race and I think it could be set for a bigger price winner. I like the look of Sir Maximillian who goes well fresh and might be under the handicappers radar at the moment. 1 unit e/w Sir Maximillian @ 8/1

3.50 Boodles Diamond Maiden –  As always a tricky maiden as you try to work our not just any form and breeding lines but also who will act on the track and who will handle the large crowd. Unoriginal but the favourite Prince of Stars looks like he will improve a lot for his first run and whilst he doesnt look much value, he does look solid. 3 units win Prince of Stars @ 5/4

4.25 Stella Artois Conditions Stakes – Luck Beggar was an impressive winner at Newbury and looks a sprinter on the way up. Whilst this race also has loads of pace in it there is a chance he is a group sprinter in the making. It would be great if the 12 year old Borderlescott went in but he may have to give way to younger legs. I think this really is set up for a closer with pace from at least 4 different horses. They really will scorch the track  – 2 units e/w Lucky beggar @ 9/4 – keep on the right side of this one for the rest of the year

5.00 Diabetes UK Handicap –  This could top off a big day for John Gosden as we think that his charge Anglo Irish looks on the way up. Two wins at Lingfield over 10f and Kempton over 12f means he is bringing his A game to the track and a progressive profile. Forgetting his last run i fear most the Roger Charlton horse Laugharne, who has run badly twice this year but last year was considered good enough to run in a Group 1 race. If they have sorted him our he could be dangerous at a big price.  1 unit e/w Anglo Irish and 1 unit e/w Laugharne @ 28/1