If you like horse racing then spring time in the UK is undoubtedly the best time of year. Firstly we get treated to the Greatest horse racing festival in the world at Cheltenham and then they deliver the Worlds Greatest Horse Race, The Crabbies Grand National.

All over the world Grand National parties will be taking place. Families will all sit together and shout and scream for the horse they have in the sweepstake or the small bet E/W on their idea of the winner. It is simply the race that stops the nation and has only one equivalent in the racing heart and that is the Melbourne Cup for Australians.

Every race horse trainer, owner, Racing journalist, bookmaker and Race course commentators lives have vivid memories of their childhood and their first meeting with horse racing, which is nearly always through this great race. The first bet, the first race seen on TV, the love of these great animals and their amazing ability and the huge way that the UK public gets behind this race, like no other.

True, it has had its detractors and there is no doubt in this day and age that the safety record for horse and jockey needed to be under the closest of scrutiny. It has been and the authorities have acted well in protecting the race and its status, even if to the die-hards it now all appears a little too easy – easy?  Four miles, 3 and half furlongs over fences that they rarely see from one season to the next with weights derived from anything other than this type of race. Its no wonder it’s referred to as the bookies benefit! Well at least that’s what it used to be. I actually believe things have shifted dramatically towards the punter. Why I hear you ask?

Firstly because the fences are easier and because less horses fall, less get brought down and luck plays a lesser part in your horse getting around. Secondly because so many bookmakers want a piece of the action competition is extreme and the book is so tight. If you shop around you can get paid out down to six places at a 1/4 of the odds and with most horses currently priced 20/1 or bigger that’s a healthy return for placing. Thirdly because, thanks to Crabbies, the prize money is so big (over £1 million these days) all the good horse want to run in this race and better horses means better jumpers with better engines and that’s better for form judges all round.

So – how do we find the winner of the national. Well, I’m not saying its simple but my rule has always been – find three horses that fit the bill of a national winner and back them to equal stakes. They may not win but if you obey the rules then you should get a good run for your money.

What are the rules?

Last years third  – Teaforthree (pictured) fulfilled nearly all the criteria in 2013

1. We need a horse aged between 9-12. Sadly this rules out the enigmatic Tidal Bay, who at 13 may still win this race as he is an amazing horse but statistics say its unlikely. It also rules out the sponsors horse, Swing Bill, who is 13 and has been aimed at this race by Trainer David Pipe and owner Judy Halewood since her company Crabbies agreed the sponsorship. The other horse that it rules out is Triolo D’Alene for Nick Henderson ,who at 7 is just too young to do himself justice.

2. We need a horse rated officially between 136-157 and this doesn’t take many out because those rated below 136 I don’t think will get in to this years race and at the top end there is only two, one of whom, Tidal Bay we have already discounted and the other is Long Run, who may prove to be a sensation over these fences but both his jumping and his form this year don’t appear up to winning this.

3. We want a horse who has won over 3 miles in its career. Believe me they go a good pace in this race now and the days of a 2 mile 4 furlong horse winning this race are well gone – they just don’t get home at this pace. Most know this and there aren’t many who haven’t won over 3 miles.

4. We need some class to win this race so we want a horse who has won a race worth more than £13,000 and that thins a few more out of the equation

5. We are also looking for a horse who has had a run over hurdles during the year as well. As odd as it sounds, amazingly 7-10 of the last ten years winners all did this in the year they won

6. There is a big figure that suggests that running at Cheltenham is not ideal preparation for this race either, as it was only 23-25 days ago that they ran. For that reason I need to put a line through Balthazar King and Big Shu, who if they had come here fresh I would have fancied as they both really like the cross country course with its quirky fences. I think their exertions will find them out.

So using the above and looking for best fits this is what our short list looks like at the moment and we will run the rule over it some more, using the above criteria to see who fits best to come up with our final three.

Our Short List for the start

Tea for Three, Prince De Beuchene, Quito De La Roque, The Rainbow Hunter, Pineau De Re and The Package.

Taking these horse one at a time we work through them as follows.

I was disappointed Rebecca Curtis ran Teaforthree in the Gold Cup and whilst he ran well at Cheltenham the National is his race, having finished 3rd last year he has what we need in a winner and we need to push aside his efforts at Cheltenham to be with him this year as everything else fits perfectly. That’s not easy to do.

Prince De Beuchene – has been targeted at this race by owners Graham Wylie and his new trainer, Willie Mullins. Even down to them running him in a 2 mile 4f “warm up” race last time out which both would have put him right for Aintree and not jeopardised his “winning mark” My only concern with him is how poorly he jumped on a slower surface at Leopardstown back in December. Hopefully they have worked hard on this aspect or he simply wont get round.  (Another private rule is  – Ignore Willie Mullins at your peril)

Rainbow Hunter -looked good going in to last years event and he ticks nearly all the boxes for legendary trainer Kim Bailey. A good run and win in the Skybet Chase on 25th Jan, with a good long recovery time. Little unlucky to unseat his rider at the Canal Turn first time round last year but some experience of the fences  and after a soft palate operation that appears to have worked, he seems as good as ever.

Pineau Du Re – what an interesting horse. The good Dr – Newland trains this horse and he has set about fulfilling every criteria to win this race with this horse. including running him over hurdles where he ran a blinder finishing 3rd to Fingal Bay at Cheltenham for the perfect pre-race. Something tells me he is primed and ready to win, with the small caveat being his biggest Chase win is £13,000 and I would like that to have been more but its only a couple grand shy of the class required. With only 34 starts to his name he is not done too many miles and is a strong fancy.

Quito De La Roque – Enjoyed a really high profile for a while and has won big races. Really lost his way in the last 18 months and his handicap mark, dropping from 170 -150 tempers our enthusiasm. However he ran well for a long way early this year and hinted at a return to form. If he is back then Colm Murphy, his trainer, has a live wire chance.

The Package – After his Cheltenham success it would be wrong not to consider a David Pipe trained horse and this one is very interesting. His first run this season was at Cheltenham and whilst that would normally be a no-no, with it being his only run this campaign it will have put him right and his 3rd showed he has retained his ability. In 2013 has managed to get to the 19th fence before unseating his rider.

Who does that leave in our short list of three against the field – they are

1. Pineau De Re  33/1 Sportingbet      2. Prnce De Beuchene  33/1 Sportingbet     3. Rainbow Hunter  33/1 Sportingbet

If you bet with Sportingbet they are paying 5 places at these prices  with Non Runner – no bet – get on now

The Premier League 22nd March

The Game of the Season

Chelsea vs Arsenal – Stamford Bridge 12.45

Both managers agree this is the biggest game of the season. The reason – its a six point game. Should a team lose they will have given up six points to their closest rival – not just 3. Make not mistake they are tow very good teams. Everyone questions Arsenal and their ability to handle pressure but apart form Chelsea they have conceded least goals at home in the league. Something they couldn’t do in recent years.

Cole isn’t playing (injured) and neither is Ramires or Willians who are both suspended. Arsenal just have a fitness test for Rosicky before the kick off other than that they are as they lined up last week- albeit that is without their two best players who are long term injured which is a big blow at this time of year.

Chelsea will feel good after their midweek stroll against a lucklustre Galatasaray and Arsenal will be incredibly focused to do it for their Manager who has simply been astounding at this Iconic north London club. What great motivation for what should be a tense encounter – too tense maybe for good football.

Wenger vs Mourinho is always interesting and the chosen one has been careful with his words for Wengers 1,000th game in charge – respectful in the hope that anything he says doesn’t backfire on him, which suggests he fears Arsenal more than normal.

I don’t think it will be a game full of chances as both teams have so much to play for. It reminds me of a group of death game in the World Cup – you would rather they didn’t meet until the semi finals but here it is. It’s not over for the loser, if the loser is Chelsea but its the beginning of the end of the season if its Arsenal.

I might be reading too  much in to Mourinho’s words but I get the feeling he thinks this is the best Arsenal team he has played for a while and isn’t as confident with the ammunition he has on the pitch, as he has been in the past. So that tells me, as he is an outstanding judge of football, that I should look at the value in Arsenal on offer as I think the layers are all in the “Arsenal cant cut it under pressure” camp. They may be right.

As a wise man said, Football and gambling are all about opinions and if you have a bet you are entitled to an opinion. The problem with opinions is they are just like ar—holes – everyone’s got one. This is mine.

Our Bet :  4 units win Arsenal – draw no bet @ 12/5 with Bet 365

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Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Preview

With two winners and two places on the first two days we are not down money but we need a day to make some so here is todays play.

Thursday

1.30 JLT Novices Chase 2 mile 4 furlongs

There is no doubt Felix Yonger  4-1, will take a lot of beating in this race. He brings in the best known form from the best Festival partnership for some time, however it would be wrong to ignore the claims of Wonderful Charm 6-1, with Paul Nichols believing we haven’t seen the best of him yet and he looked all over the winner when Oscar Whisky had to drag everything out to beat him. Lurking for Jonjo with AP on board is Tarquin  Du Seuil  9-1, who has really improved this year after a 17L demolition in a Grade 2 last time out at Haydock and I wouldn’t rule out the other Willie Mullins horse, Djakadam ,10-1 who just might be the surprise package.

 

Winners Profile. This race has only been staged for 3 years and so trends are hard to come by. Interestingly in its three years favourites have finished 2^nd twice and not won yet. Up until last year the second favourite had won two years running and only 6-7 year olds have won so far. We have to be careful here because it’s too early to be too confident about what is needed to win.

Winner : Wonderful Charm  6-1 Boylesports   Alternative : Tarquin Du Seuil 9-1 Boylesports

 

 

2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle – 3 miles

Just the 24 over this 3 mile handicap to sort through!  Fingal Bay 7-1, was impressive in his comeback run and warrants respect but it just has to be too much weight for him to win, although he will be hard to keep out of the six places on offer.  If in Doubt 8-1, for Hobbs and McCoy appears to be well fancied and bring most of a winning profile to the race, but I think it could be the Jonjo resident Josies Orders 16-1, who could take all the beating. She fits everyone of my winning criteria requirements and in a tricky handicap the 5lbs Maurice Linehan (an up and coming star) takes off, could well prove vital.

 

Winners Profile : Aged 6-9, Carried no more than 11stone 4lbs, Off for between 20-48 days, Won a class 3 or higher, Winning form between 2m4f -2m6f, Officially rated 129-142, Won over at least 3 miles, 6-10 runs over hurdles.

Winner : Josies Orders 16-1 Bet365,  Alternative : If in Doubt 8-1 Sportingbet

 

 

 

 

 

2.40 Ryanair Chase 2 mile 5 furlongs

 

I would like the David Pipe trained Dynaste, 7-2 , to win this as I think this horse deserves a Cheltenham victory, but life isn’t like that normally. Al Ferof, 4-1, clearly didn’t get home at Kempton in the King George but on better ground he would have taken some beating.  Bennefficient 7-2, who has won here has looked as though he has just kept improving nd this has to be his ideal trip. I also think that the previously progressive Hunt Ball could muster up a surprise or two in this race but may just lack the cutting edge to pull off a victory. It may look a little dull with the selections below but the statistics are hard to ignore.

Winners Profile : Pre race RPR of at least 158, Officially rated 152+, Course Winner, From first 3 in the market, No more than 4 runs since October, Top 3 finish last time out, At least eight runs over fences.

Winner : Benefficient  7-2 Sportingbet      Alternative : Al Ferof 4-1 Sportingbet

 

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3 miles

This is a bit like the Quevega race, as it is now known. If Annie Power stands up she wins. She is an excellent mare with tons of ability and on this good ground the trip won’t cause her any concerns at all. Big Bucks will put up a great fight but he just doesn’t have the pace anymore. More of That looks like a real contender but only a contender and At Fishers Cross needs to show he’s back to his best to upset the apple cart

Winner : Annie Power  15/8 Coral ,  Outsider : More of That 10/1 Sportingbet

 

4.00 Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) 2 mile 4 furlongs

Both Colour Squadron 10 and Champion Court 14 are good horses capable of winning this race but the weight is a concern for them. Ryan Hatch takes a valuable seven off the back of Champion Court and it could be that he is capable of achieving something that hasn’t been done since this race was framed and that is winning off top weight. Colour Squadron also brings together a good partnership of Hobbs and McCoy but if we stick to our formula of defining horses who are capable of winning by profile then two stand out and they are both from the all-conquering Venetia Williams stable. Last years winner Carrick Boy and last time out winner Shangani. I am keen on the latter to do the business against his older stablemate

Winners Profile : Won a class 3 or higher, Won between 2m3f and 2m5f, Run more than 3 times over fences, Ran within last 42 days, Top five finish last time out, Carried no more than 10stone 10lbs. Ran at previous festival.

Winner:  Shangani  20-1 Betfred   Alternative : Champion Court 16-1 Betvictor

 

 

 

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 3 miles 1 furlong

Indian Castle 6-1, is top of a lot peoples list for this week and I suppose this was the logical race for Donal McCain to aim this last time out winner at. A years more experience and we would be all over this one. Cause of Causes 10-1, looks similar to Indian Castle in profile but without the winning back number and a question for me about how good he really is. At 12 years of age, Tranquil Sea 20-1, brings a touch of class and fight to the race and he showed with his win last time out that the heart is still there for the battle. However I think we need to look a little further down the handicap to satisfy all of our criteria and for me it’s the Paul Nichols trained There’s No Panic who sticks out. It could be a bit short for him but he will sit out the back and hope they go a strong gallop and then mow them down up the hill. I confess to this being slightly sentimental as connections of the Betting Agency owned the mare who bred this horse, Out Ranking and she had a heart the size of 12 lions

Winners Profile : Rated within 8lbs of RPR top rated, Ran over at least 3m last time out, Officially rated 124-142, Aged 7-9, Won a handicap chase, Won over at least 3 miles, Finished in first three last 2 starts at least.

Winner : There’s No Panic  16-1 Betvictor  Alternative : Indian Castle 6-1 Boylesports

•  

Cheltenham Festival, Day 2 Preview

Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Preview

1.30 Neptune  Investment Novices Hurdle 2 mile 5 furlongs

Where to start with the opening race on Day 2. Most logically, from the stats
below, with the Irish and the favourite, Faugheen (3-1), he is all the rage for Willie Mullins and if you look at the stats he satisfies everyone of them. Something not missed by those with antepost vouchers. Royal  Boy (7-1) comes with a similar profile but he is 7 years of age now and that is all that he has against him having won a Group 1 race. Red Sherlock (5-1) has been targeted at this race for some time and has a very similar profile to the favourite, with his yard in red hot form.

It’s not very original but sometimes you can’t and shouldn’t ignore the obvious and shouldn’t look further; this is that race.

Winners profile:  Aged 5-6, RPR of at least 145, Won at least 50% of races, Finished 1st or 2nd on all completed starts, Scored over at least 2m4f, Rated within 9lbs of top rated in the field, At least 3 runs over hurdles, Won a graded hurdle, Started career in Irish points or bumpers.

Winner : Faugheen 5/2 Coral     Outsider  : Red Sherlock 7/2 Betvictor

2.05 RSA Chase 3 mile ½ Furlong

A really tough race to separate some very promising chasers. We have really had to run the rule over the entire field to separate them as with the exception of Samingarry the rest are separated by no more than 7 lbs on RPR ratings.

There will be a good pace with Corrin  Wood, who likes to lead but I think they have chosen the wrong race and should have gone for the 4 miler. Gevrey Champertin would have been top of my list if he hadn’t pulled up last time and been only 6 years of age.
Similarly I fancy Annacotty  who won the Feltham and he gets in as my outsider.  I did fancy Sam Winner  and think he will run well if they don’t go to quick, he just lacks some gears bit not guts.

However, yet again, if you look at the trends the right horse running in the right race has been placed by Willie Mullins. Ballycasey fits all my criteria and has the best chase jockey in the world, that will do for me and Ruby gets us
off to a flyer on day 2.

Winners Profile : Did not run on the flat, Top 3 finish last time out, Ran between 24-53 days ago, 3 times over fences or more, Contested a graded chase and won or placed, rated less then 11lbs from top rated, 9-12 jumping runs, Chase RPR of at least 150. Aged 7.

Winner : Ballycasey 11/2 Skybet   Outsider :  Annacotty 20/1 Betvictor

2.40 Coral Cup – Handicap 2 mile 5 furlong

What a handicap this is. We really need to get to the bottom of these entries to find our winner and with 28 in the field it’s never easy. So who looks likely to give us a decent run for our money.

Sometimes the stats can be a little bit inhibiting, particularly when a horse of the quality of Dunguib (9-1) decides to show his face in a handicap. History says he can’t win carrying 11-12 but that’s not what his shrewd trainer thinks and he
showed that he is back to some decent form with a win in a Grade 2 last time out. He likes Cheltenham and has never delivered on his ability before getting injured. So even at 11, and off 157 he could be the Elephant in the room.

The winners profile is very satisfied with Clondaw Kaempfer who, carrying 10-10 seems to have everything going for him and from a trainer whose horses are really finding in a fight at the moment, which this will be.

The other who satisfies nearly all of our criteria is Kaylif Aramis for Nigel Twiston Davies. His win last time out was a good performance and shows he is in great form.

Winners profile : Won between 2m2f and 2m6f, Scored at Class 3 or above, Not run for at least 32 days, Won a race earlier in the season, Carried no more than 11s2lb. Aged 5-7, Officially rated 130-144. No more than four runs this season.

Winner : Clondaw Kaempfer  (14-1) Skybet ,  Alternative  : Kaylif Aramis (16-1) Bet 365

3.20 Betvictor Queen Mother Champion Chase 2miles

The least competitive race on the book this year. The only horse who has the ability, the form, the profile and the class to win this race is the favourite, Sire De Grugy (5-2) and barring a fall he wins this race. The Irish Challenger Arvika Leigeonneire (7-1) could chase him home if he jumps them all but that’s a big if. There is no doubting he has talent but he just seems to tip up too often for my liking.  If you go through the profile below you can only find one that fits it and it’s the Sire for Gary Moore.

Winners Profile : Won over at least 2m1f, At least 7 runs over fences, No older than 9, Adjusted RPR of at least 170, less than 9lb from top rated, Grade 1 Chase winner or placed. All those in the last 10 years, 7 or younger were all French breds.

Winner : Sire De Grugy (5-2 Sportingbet)   Outsider : Arvika Leigeonneire (7-1 Bet 365)

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Hcap Chase 3 mile 7 furlongs

Big Shu 4  – has the course and distance form that is important in this race. So is the jockey knowing which way to go!! And I don’t say that flippantly.  Balthazar King 11/2 also has the ability to win this having done so over course and distance, which
is important. Quantativeeasing 11 has the trainer, the owner and the jockeys surname (Walsh) to bring it all together and could provide the answers and finally at 12 years of age don’t rule out Sizing Australia 16, for Henry DeBromhead who has also won around this track. It’s not one of my favourite races but those horses who have proven ability do well and the betting doesn’t often get it wrong.

Winners Profile : Won over at least 3m, Trained in Ireland, Officially rated 126-143, C&D or Punchestown winning or placed form, Carried less than 11stone, Top four last time out.

Winner: Big Shu  (4-1 Bet 365)    Outsider : Quantativeeasing (12-1 Betvictor)

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2 miles ½ Furlong

Just the 24 in this handicap with only 12 pounds between top and bottom. Not a lot to these horses and it becomes a very tight handicap. Dawalan 6/1 has been all the rage for some time, for Nicky Henderson and he is most definitely laid
out for this race and can’t be ignored. Goodwood Mirage 9/1 likewise, fits most of our credentials for the race and it’s possible the better ground will really help him, as will his pilot AP McCoy. Ivan Grozny 12/1 was at one time favourite for the Triumph and hasn’t lived up to that billing but this could be right up his street. Another who needs serious consideration who is lurking lower in the weights is the David Pipe trained Azza 20/1 , who again gets a lot of ticks in the right boxes.

It’s not easy and there appears to be no banker in this race.

Winners Profile : By  a sire who won a Grp 1 on the flat, Beaten in first two starts over hurdles, Officially rated 124-133, Won at least one of last two starts, Carry 11 stone or less

Winner: Goodwood  Mirage (9/1 Skybet)    Outsider : Azza (20-1 Skybet)

5.15 Weatherbys  Champion Bumper 2 mile ½ furlong

It has been relatively simple to get in to the places in this race with your bet. Cover all Willie Mullins horses and if you haven’t got the winner you probably have a place for your each way money. He certainly brings two good horses to this race this year. Black Hercules, 7/1 was quoted as being his best earlier in the season and Shaneshill 7/1 doesn’t look that far behind him. I guess when we find out which one Ruby is riding that will affect the prices. If they aren’t the winners then maybe Modus 10/1 for the little known trainer
Robert Stephens, who bolted up in a junior bumper here earlier in the season, or Silver Concorde (16-1) for flat master, Dermot Weld have the answers.

It’s tough to see past the Irish in this one and I’m not sure there is much point in looking if history is anything to go by.

Winners Profile : Won last time out, Aged 5-6, Won a bumper with at least 13 starters, Adjusted RPR of 126 or more, Off for at least 33 days, Bred in Ireland.

Winner : Black  Hercules  – 7-1 Skybet     Outsider : Modus   12- 1 Skybet

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Cheltenham – Get on, Day 1 Preview

Its day 1 of the greatest Racing Festival in the world – Here is our day 1 Preview. Our members got this yesterday at 1.oopm. Just sign up now for free, as a member and you will get that service every day.

 

Tuesday 11^th March

1.30 Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle 2 miles

It would be no surprise to see Willie Mullins, Ruby Walsh and the Irish get off to a winning start as they have done so often in the past but whilst Vautour would be a good winner my problem is that his best form is sighted as being the beating of a below form Tullow Tank, who I wouldn’t have been backing for this race even if he was fit. As far as the Irish are concerned I am keen to be with Wicklow Brave (7-1) as one of my 3 against the field. I like everything about the favourite, Irving (9-4), except his jumping and sadly that really counts in this race. He did get better as the race went on but I cant part with my hard earned on the chance he gets it right on the day. So who are we looking for?

Winners Profile – Won at least 50% of all races, Ran within last 52 days, Rated within 13lbs of top rated, Won last time out, Contested a graded race last time out.  – Winner : Wicklow Brave,  8 -1 Skybet  Outsider : The Liquidator 25-1 Betvictor

 

2.05 Racing Post Arkle Chase 2 miles

This isn’t the race that it normally is. I just don’t think the quality of jumping has been established by these novices in number. Yes, Rock on Ruby is a great horse but we haven’t seen enough of his jumping to know if he really is top class – he could be. Champagne Fever (3-1) has a proven Cheltenham record but doesn’t impress with reliability. I could make a case for Dodging Bullets because Paul Nichols says he is good, is that enough? – maybe. The best novice jumping I have seen this year, from a proven Cheltenham winner, with class and guts is by Trifolium and at 5/1. I’m keen to be with him. My other to back in this race at a bigger price is Valdez (9-1), who I think has a touch of class about him, with Alan King in outstanding form and would be a worthy winner of a race that might be slightly below par – or indeed could light up Cheltenham on the day.

Winners Profile : SP No bigger than 9/1, Aged 5-8, 3-5 runs over fences,   Winner: Trifolium  9/2 Sportingbet, Outsider : Valdez 10/1 Bet 365

 

2.40 Festival Handicap Chase 3miles ½ Furlong

When a race at Cheltenham is 9/1 the field it’s because quality horses who are incredibly evenly matrched are taking each other one at their optimum trip. Assuming they all declare to run I don’t fancy the favourite Hadrians Approach (9-1) as I think the handicapper has him and this is as good as he is – good but not good enough. I cant be with Cantlow (10-1) as he just doesn’t seem to have sparkled like the horse he was last year – is it the ground we have been running on or has he not quite kept developing. Holywell (10-1) looks a player, who won the Pertemps last year and if his jumping were better would be a much shorter favourite. The horse I want to be with in this ultra competitive handicap is Annacotty (14-1) who, whilst beaten by Indian Castle after winning a weak Feltham, showed real courage and maybe undervalued byb the Handicapper. We assume Indian Castle will run in the Fulke Walwyn, where, if Annacotty wins this race he will go much shorter for that contest.

Winners Profile : Aged 7-10, Carried no more than 11-2, Officially rated 129-145, Won over at least 3 miles, Top three finish in either of last 2 runs. Winner : Holywell  11-1 Betvictor– Outsider: Tour Des Champs  16-1 Betvictor

 

3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle

What the Arkle lacks in pre-publicity the Champion doesn’t not. On paper this is a belter. The undisputed, I am the Greatest, Hurricane Fly, versus the Young Guns from 2013, The New One, Our Connor, Festival winners, Jezki, always thought of as a champion. My Tent or Yours who gave a panic ridden New One a beating at Kempton and sitting outside the mainstream is the brave, genuine and tough Melodic Rendezvous, who if it rained would really come in to his own. So how does it pan out. Hurricane Fly wins, maybe for the last time but this is it. The resolve he showed to win last time out was just incredible. Below his best and he refused to be beaten. He comes here in better form than that win and they couldn’t beat him then so nothing in Ireland gets in front of him.  That just leaves the UK’s best. Well in my opinion but for a bad bit of jockeyship by WTW, The New One would have beaten My Tent or Yours, he didn’t need that big jump to beat My Tent and sadly I don’t think Melodic Rendezvous has the pace to stay with them when they quicken, on this ground. I am going to go for a tricast here. Hurricane Fly (7-2 Betvictor) beats The New One, beats Melodic Rendezvous. Now what does that pay? To win this race Hurricane Fly has to become the first 10 year old to do so and that would be a fitting end to the legend of a true Champion

 

4.00 OLBG Mares Hurdle 2mile 4 furlongs

I’m not going to waste too much time on this one. Quevage at 10/11 Coral wins and this will also be her last Cheltenham victory and what an amazing horse and training performance she and he are. Who follows her home? Probably Cockney Sparrow (8-1), and Glens Melody (14-1)

 

4.40 National Hunt Chase 4 miles Amateur Riders

Ted Walsh has targeted this race for Foxrock (4-1) for some time and I haven’t see anything form this horse to say he doesn’t deserve to be the favourite. Shutthefrontdoor (11-2) has all the credentials for Jonjo O’Neil who knows a thing or two about winning this race and Donald McCains horses, who are now in their best nick of the year looks to have a good-un with Corrin Wood (7-1) who really fits the profile of a winner for this race, liking to lead as he does.

Winners Profile – Run at least 3 times over fences, Finished 1^st or 2^nd over 3 miles. Top 3 finish last time out, Aged 7 or 8. Winner : Sutthefrontdoor  4-1 Betvictor,  Outsider : Shotgun Paddy 11-2 Betvictor

 

5.15 Rewards 4 Racing Novices H’Cap Chase 2 mile 4 furlongs

Charlie Longsdon started the season in blistering fashion and then just came off the boil. Well guess what? He’s back and in Pendra (7-1) he has a smart novice running in the right race. Excuse his last run as just a blip, without which he wouldn’t be running off this mark and you have a well treated, quality bet. If Ericht (10-1) lines up against him then the clash becomes tasty. Erichts jumping at Musselburgh was electric but this is Cheltenham and he has to improve again to take this race, which he just might do. The Romford Pele, for the all-conquering, Queens of Saturday’s, Venetia Williams comes with a good chance and is tempting at 14/1. I can also make a strong case for Manyriverstocross (10-1) and feel these 4 may produce the winner.

Winners Profile : Top Two finish last time out, Officially rated 132-142, Won over at least 2m2f, Carried no more than 11-4, Finished in the first four on all completed starts, No more than one win over fences – Aged 6-9,  Winner : Ericht  10-1 Betvictor,  Outsider : Buthelezi 28-1 Betvictor

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