The Greatest Horse Racing Festival in the World

Every day for the next four days we will send our members a daily sheet, the day before racing, of our tips for the best race meeting in the world. This gives you the chance to work our your strategy and plan how you are going to make it pay. Below is Day 1- the last race preview. There is a lot more analysis of every race every day so join us now to get the best possible betting experience.

5.15 Rewards 4 Racing Novices H’Cap Chase 2 mile 4 furlongs

Charlie Longsdon started the season in blistering fashion and then just came off the boil. Well guess what? He’s back and in Pendra (7-1) he has a smart novice running in the right race. Excuse his last run as just a blip, without which he wouldn’t be running off this mark and you have a well treated, quality bet. If Ericht (10-1) lines up against him then the clash becomes tasty. Erichts jumping at Musselburgh was terrific but this is Cheltenham and he has to improve again to take this race, which he just might do. The Romford Pele, for the all-conquering, Queens of Saturday’s, Venetia Williams comes with a good chance and is tempting at 14/1. I can also make a strong case for Manyriverstocross (10-1) and feel these 4 may produce the winner.

Winners Profile : Top Two finish last time out, Officially rated 132-142, Won over at least 2m2f, Carried no more than 11-4, Finished in the first four on all completed starts, No more than one win over fences – Aged 6-9, Winner : Ericht, Outsider : Buthelezi

Bet 365 go mad on International Football

Fantastic Soccer Offers at bet365

There’s some exciting International Soccer to look forward to this week with England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland all in action.

After back to back defeats against Chile and Germany, Roy Hodgson’s men now play host to Denmark looking for a strong performance to help build momentum ahead of this summer’s World Cup.

Wales play Iceland hoping to make it three games on home soil without defeat, while Scotland search for a fourth win in five as they travel to Warsaw to face Poland. Elsewhere, the Republic of Ireland entertain Serbia in Dublin and Northern Ireland take on Cyprus in Nicosia.

There will be an extensive selection of pre-match and In-Play markets available on each of these games so you can get the best value from all the action at bet365.

That’s not all, with the Bore Draw Money Back offer even a goalless draw is never the worst result with bet365 – if you place a pre-match Correct Score, Half-Time/Full-Time or Scorecast bet on any Soccer match and the game finishes 0-0, bet365 will refund all losing bets on those markets!

With a wide range of betting opportunities, great offers and a Live Streaming service covering over 40,000 events each year, bet365 is the number one place for all your Soccer Betting.

Manchester United – Help Yourself @ 2/1

Rarely has the red part of Manchester felt so sick. Rarely have they looked so sick. What’s happened to the team that everyone feared, that everyone wanted to see play. There is no doubt about it things are desperate at Old Trafford. Ohh I don’t mean they will get relegated or that they will even sack David Moyes, United don’t do stuff like that, not its far worse than that.

Your see United wont be in the top 4 this year and that means no European football next year and that comes at a huge cost. United also have to fill a 75,000 seater ground every week, its in their cash forecasts, which is what they have been doing and why they sit at the very top of the Deloitte Rich list for clubs. On their current performances next years season ticket sales cant be increased in either price or number. In fact some might even remain unsold. Unthinkable 2 years ago. No, this is about money and that’s where it really hurts.

Same personnel, more money spent on more players, different Manager, different results. Was it coming anyway? Is Moyes somehow not as good? I don’t think any of us know that yet. It’s not like the England cricket dressing room where apparently their shocking winter is down to Kevin Pieterson, we haven’t heard those rumblings yet about affected players all fighting with each other and texting “the hell” out of each other- not yet anyway. They simply cant win football matches.

The Fulham result happens and as a one off you could just brush it aside. Moyes was right when he said they didn’t deserve that late equaliser but he is starting to sound less like Jose Mourinho and more like Sam Allardyce every day. United don’t say stuff like that, they don’t feel sorry for themselves, they just win matches. Not anymore apparently and bookmakers are loving it.

So forgetting all that about United and their worries because I don’t care. how do we make money out of it. Simple!

Go to Betfair, open an account and then find the market which says Top 6 in the premiership. In that market you will see United are 1/2 to be in the top 6, a place that they are not currently. You can then lay that for as much as you are comfortable. Which means you have both Tottenham and Everton playing for you for the rest of the season to keep them out of the top 6 at a price of 2/1 . Now that’s good business.

Get on now

Australian Tennis – The Polska Reminisces

After Stan Wawrinka wins in Melbourne, The Polska explains just how Aussie Tennis ended up in the bin, with the rest of us.

“Given that the Australian Open has just melted its way to a torched finish I figured we’d talk tennis. BTW – well done Stan – I think!

As youngsters we were all too aware of Australia’s glorious tennis history. Mrs Raven’s Grade IV regaled us of times tables, Captain Cook, Aborigines, Jesus, Mary and Joseph, the mother country, Her Majesty, the Darling River, Rod Laver, Rosewall, Hoad, and Sedgeman.

But something wasn’t quite right.

The photos of our champs that adorned the walls and the necks of our Oliver Bluebirds seemed to be from another era. There’s the young Rod Laver circa 1966, all Rockhampton freckles and carrot top short back and sides. Next to him is young Kenny Rosewall, a gangly youth with a Sunday School haircut and nothing but the weight of Brylcreem on his young shoulders. The guys in the photos didn’t look anything like the guys in the street in 1973, or the long-haired side burned brigade kicking the pigskin at the Bay Oval each Saturday. It turned out our tennis heroes were the heroes of our parents – heroes from another time.

We understood all too well when we tuned in to watch the action from the Public Auditorium in Cleveland Ohio in November 1973. The Davis Cup final. Australia against the USA. Forty years on and I still remember it. Out they came: Rocket, Muscles and co., and just as we suspected they didn’t look much like the young men on the wall at home. You could hear them creaking all the way back in Glenelg East. Here comes the Rocket – 35 years old but looking kind of ancient, weedy and kind of bandy-legged. And if I’m not mistaken, I do believe he’s got a serious comb over going. He doesn’t look like that on my racket. There’s Muscles, all 39 years of him, 5ft nothing of skin and bone and craggy face – the Brylcreem being the only testament to the kid on the posters. He looks more like my Uncle Tony than Uncle Tony – but I figured Uncle Tony might stand a better chance in Cleveland, Ohio right now. Newc was the pup at just 29.

Now I understood. I was watching a fading glory, yesterday’s men at the end of days – and I was going to bear witness to the sinking of the sun. – This was going to be ugly.

But from the moment they take the court you can sense that somehow, against all odds, something special is going to happen. The old guys and the old magic are going to be on show just one more time. We’re going back to the 60s. Back to a different time and place. Somehow they’ve managed to do a deal – maybe with the Devil, or maybe with Old Father Time: “Let us do this one last time and we’ll pass quietly into history”.

They are out-of-this-world during this one week in 1973. They conjur the spirits of a bygone era and its bygone glories. Rocket wins the first rubber: 8-10 8-6 6-8 6-3 6-1. He is majestic. There’s no grunt, there’s no power – just the majesty of the artist. He’s floating on air. The grace, the timing, the precision, the magic waving of the wand. He can’t miss. They can’t miss. They are sublime. Five – nil. To a 12 year old this is as good as it gets.

Sadly, this would be as good as it ever got again. In the end both sides sides stuck to the deal. There would be no encore. One last blessing and they were gone – and we were on our own.

Fast forward just six months. Wimbledon 1974. Men’s singles final. Ken Rosewall at the age of 40. Never won Wimbledon. But across the net things had changed. The Tom Gormans and Stan Smiths from Cleveland Ohio were gone – swept aside by the new breed – the “brash young Americans” had arrived. Jimmy Connors – 22 years old, serious haircut, two-fisted backhand, tennis brat, power-mum, steel racket and plenty of attitude. No Cinderella story here – 6-1 6-1 6-4 told the story. Game over for Aussie tennis.

The last 40 years have seen just slight aberrations in our long and slow decline. Evonne, Pat (Cash) and Lleyton won Wimbledon and Pat (Rafter), Lleyton and Samantha won US Opens. But they were blimps on an otherwise empty radar rather than a new Aussie tennis invasion.

Today’s ATP rankings show Lleyton at 43, Marinko Matesevic at 54, Bernie at 57 and Matthew Ebden at 67. Next is James Duckworth at 133. The women’s rankings show Sam Stosur as the only Australian in the top 100 at 17.

So what happened to Australian tennis?

Well, firstly you’ve got to remember that my special subject is the bleedin’ obvious, but basically the world changed – which in itself is both self evident and kind of significant. The glorious amateur era where tennis was pretty much the preserve of gentle sports folk from Australia and the USA was swept aside by the huff and bluster of the big money professional era. The deft groundstokes of yesterday were no match for the raw muscle serve-volley game that would dominate tennis for a generation. In the new big money world there’s no room for luck of the bounce, so the breeding ground of Australia’s champions – the grass courts of Forrest Hills, Kooyong, White City and countless more were consigned to history. No room for sport in a business world. In a world where there’s a disturbingly thin line between patriotism and nationalism, the tennis arena got pretty crowded pretty quickly – not only with players but with investors both private and public. Like most things tennis got a bit caught up in the Cold War, with tennis factories (better known as academies) springing up on both sides of the divide. Corporations in the west. Governments in the east. Australia was a long way away from this world.

That’s not to say that Aussie tennis folk stopped taking it seriously – but there’s serious and there’s serious if you know what I mean. We may take tennis seriously but there are plenty of other things competing for our attention. As a nation we just didn’t take tennis as seriously as the capitalists and communists who had the kids and coaches banging balls from dawn to dusk in the tennis factories of the world.

And I reckon that’s the bottom line – but not the only line. Professional sport costs big dollars. If you want to dominate you need to invest big – privately and publically. There’s plenty of competition for the investment dollar. In Australia, where do we place professional sports such as tennis in the government investment pecking order? Where do sport and the arts sit against health, education, technology and the environment in a country of 22 million and GDP of $US1.5T? Maybe at the end of the day our values are a bit different to the others. Maybe as a nation we are happy to trade off a couple of Number 1s for a few hospital beds and better schools.

But it’s not just money. Many things in life move in and out of fashion, and fashion is largely aspirational. Success builds momentum – and that success doesn’t have to be on the end of a huge public investment. Adam Scott says he would not have won the US Masters without growing up watching Greg Norman become the world number 1 (forget the major meltdowns for a moment). I wonder how many kids had their first swing of a golf club in the week after Mr Scott’s Augusta triumph? Would the A-League be going from strength to strength without the 2006 Socceroos? Maybe we underestimate the importance of role models? Maybe all it takes is one genuine tennis superstar and we’ll be back in business? The Canberra Times devoted three pages to telling me that Nick Kyrgios, the 18 year old Canberran rated 183 in the world is that man. Whatever happened to Bernard Tomic?

So if today you’re mourning or your Poms, celebrating, the demise of Australian tennis and thinking wistfully back to that golden week in 1973, and wondering when and how it all went so terribly wrong, then here’s something to think about:

Do you know how many American men are currently ranked in the top 50? The answer is one. A chap named John Isner comes in at 13. Remember Bjorn, Stefan, Mats and co? Today there are no Swedes in the top 100 either. The world has changed and as Johnny R said with the Pistols “we don’t care”.

First Utility Super League kicks off to a New Order

We have had to wait since October last year to see the season re-commence but this Friday its on again. The 2013 League leaders, Huddersfield Giants take on the Super league Champions, Wigan at the DW Stadium Friday at 8.00pm.

From bitter experience I can tell you it takes a few weeks to sort out how they are going to perform so that you can confidently have a decent punt so in this article we are having a quick look at what you can expect from each team.

Wigan Warriors – Under Shaun Wayne, look to be going from strength to strength in management, coaching and structure but our big concern is the loss of key players. Non more so than Sam Tompkins. Sparks of brilliance are hard to find at the top and to us Wigan look vulnerable. They are also going to play the Sydney Roosters in the World club challenge, down under and that is going to take its toll. I fear they will be playing catch up all season and whilst the newest Burgess looks an exciting 19 year old they need play makers. Will make the top 8 – probably top 4

Warrington Wolves – Problems for Tony Smith, lost of players gone or retired, fine that happens, but I have always believed that Warrington without Lee Briers are 6 points inferior. Well 2014 sees no Briers as well as no Morley, Hodgson or Monaghan. They have replaced a few but those who think Richie Myler is the saviour are wrong. He plays well in a very good team. I think with two losses in two finals they have missed the boat – Top 8 but I don’t see them Top 4. Controversial as the bookies make then favourites. We don’t sit on the fence here.

Huddersfield Giants – Still not made my mind up about Baloo – Coach Paul Anderson, did he inherit a very good team and is now dumbing it down or is he the creative genius behind the side. No hiding place this year and they really have high expectations after last years table topping performance. A lot rests on the shoulders of Danny Brough, who will beat up on poor sides and struggle against good ones and with no new big signings I think if teams watch the tapes of the Wigan and Leeds games late last year they will work out how to shut them down. I say they will struggle. Big Fall Coming.

Leeds Rhinos – Got to admit I am a huge Brian Mc Dermot fan and I like watching Leeds play. At this time last year I said Leeds were getting too old and too slow to be a force. I was wrong. It was all heart that got them to the semi’s and now some of those old bones have got to take the punishment again. Coach know that and he has found some really strong players in Zak Hardaker, Ryan Hall, Ben Jones-Bishop, Kallum Watkins, Joel Moon and the new signing Tom Briscoe – as well as stand-off Liam Sutcliffe, and the Papua New Guinea hooker Paul Aiton. The most exciting team in Superleague – Top and win the title – you read it here first. BTW – has anyone else spotted that the Super League logo is in Leeds colours?? Just saying!

St Helens – The Saints under Nathan Brown (incidentally I think he created the success for the Giants) are developing in to a serious side and last years 5th could have been better. Brown has signed Luke Walsh, who arrives from Penrith to try to fill the Sean Long boots, and Mose Masoe, the huge Samoan with a reputation for being a little untidy in the tackle, if you get my meaning (put him down for half the games). They will compete in every game and play fast furious, Rhino style football. I think they will play Leeds in the final – and lose. We will be with them a lot this year at some tidy prices against last years reputations.

Hull FC – Whilst sixth looked good last year I think it flattered Lee Radfords charges. For me this is a rebuilding job. They will play some good games and some poor ones and for that reason they are a betting enigma. We will try to avoid them where we can. Gareth Ellis is a very good player but his injury count is mounting and he cant win it by himself. Bottom 8 for me for the Airlie Birds.

Salford Red Devils – I spoke with owner Marwan Koukash last year and we both agreed that Rugby League was the last remaining professional sport that enjoyed prominent Sky Coverage where the least amount of money could make the greatest amount of difference. Shrewdly he has spent; both in appointing Brian Noble and in allowing Noble to sign genuinely good players. They have had 2 weeks in SA getting to know each other and whilst I don’t think 14 days is enough to get forwards, backs and centres to gel as a cohesive unit, in about 6 games time they will really be strong. The pressure will be on, from the media, to succeed and that wont help early but if they can relax they will be a real force in 2014. My Tip is 4th this season.

That leaves the Widnes Vikings, who have a real problem with their pitch and players, the Catalan Dragons who run hot and cold and I feel their enthusiasm for the sport is waning (did you know it was Frances’ national Game in the 1920’s), Wakefield Trinity who just don’t have the budget or personnel to consistently challenge, Castlelford Tigers who my be a bit of a dark horse for a top 8 place and will scare a few but will desperately miss Rangi Chase. That leaves Hull KR who have peaked in my opinion and will come back down to earth this year, The Bradford Bulls, where much will depend on how the league looks at their administration, points docking and player caps and finally the London broncos. Oh how the league would love this London thing to work, trouble is, it isn’t. They need help, money and some real enthusiasm behind them. None of which seems to be there. I hope they compete but I just don’t get it and whilst somehow they line-up again this year they have again had to move home from The Twickenham Stoop to The Edgware Hive, none of which works either on paper on or on the field.

So apart form the excitement of Leeds and Salford the rest looks a little lacklustre. I hope I am wrong but the lack of big name signings, new superstars and genuine excitement by the media suggests to me this could be a real topsie-turvy year. However there is money to be made and we will be making it

Pre season bets

Leeds to win the title. 5 units E/W @ 6/1 William Hill

Salford to win more than 15.5 Regular season Games – 10 units win @ 11/10 Betvictor

Premier Battle between the Haves and the Haves!!

Disappointingly for those of us who love the underdog the Deloittes listing of Footballs rich list shows that the top 6 clubs in the UK are Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham.

Unsurprisingly they fill the top 7 places in the premiership. So that’s all there is to football. Get plenty of cash, buy all the players that the press conclude are very good, stop them from fighting with each other on the practice pitch by making sure they all have a convertible Bentley and a hot wife, girlfriend or both and then on match days ask them to spread round evenly and do what they do. Job done, qualified for Europe, win some tin pot trophy or indeed the title. Hire and fire a Manager when you either fall out or think the team aren’t being given enough opportunities to express themselves and that as they say is pretty much all their is to it.

At the foot of the table sits those with their begging bowls looking for a few scraps form the table. How we hanker for the days of Blackburn Rovers winning the title – what’s that you say – Jack Walkers millions go them that title? Oh, sorry, forgot about that.

Given that its only now that the elite league (the top 6) provide us with any real enjoyment in their battle not to drop points after Christmas how long is it before the owners of the clubs start to get together and protect their investments in the same way that the owners of NFL Franchises in America do. When will we agree some wage caps, when will we stop wasting our time playing friendlies for our country – any way I digress.

Tonight’s games should be an intense battle between two very good sides. Tim Sherwood says that Man City are the best team on the planet. High praise indeed. The Chosen One says they are “lucky”. and Manual Pellegrini says very little at all that I can understand.

Having waffled on about money where do we place our hard earned tonight.

I agree with Sherwood. I think they are a class apart and for that reason tonight we side with the men in Pale Blue. City’s home record is fabulous and Chelsea run hot and cold. So lets not get too clever, just back them to win.

My Bet 4 units win Manchester City @ 10/11 with Bet 365

Le Crunch – England vs France on Day 1

Up until recently no one liked playing France and no-one liked going to the Stade de France to play them. That was of course until Phillipe Saint- Andre took over and in his two years at the helm France have won only three times. Surely that means that England turn up and take the points tomorrow and move on in their quest to win the title. Not according to the bookmakers it doesn’t and France go in to tomorrows game as favourites with everyone.

That’s the power of home ground advantage and an equally unpredictable French team. The theory is that France will be desperate, they will play ugly and that England don’t like a fight. There is also a belief that somehow Le Boeuf are a bit soft and are more like Le Poulet when it comes to mixing it up front. The layers also have taken in to account that in having only won 2 times in their last 13 games they had to play the All Blacks for times and the Springboks on another occasion. Against both teams they had the chance to win – but they didn’t!!!.

So what will this tasty feast serve up. My view is that I was excited when I saw the power of the England pack against the All Blacks and that whilst Saracens got murdered up front by Tolouse the other night – that is not England. My one fear about England is who is going to score the points because in the last 4 games they have only scored a try once.

Its a tough opener and I can see either side winning the game and whoever gets it right feeling very smug and not just a little lucky. For that reason my bet in this game is:-

My bet : 2 units England win @ 13/8 Boylesports & 4 units win Under 35.5 points @ 10/11 with Sportingbet

For more bets for this weekends Six nations just go to our Rugby Union page www.thebettingagency.co.uk/rugbyunion

Superbowl XLVIII – The Big One

If Floyd Mayweather is prepared to have £10 million pounds on the Denver Broncos, (yes that’s right £10 mill) then what are we waiting for. Floyd Mayweather doesn’t lose so it’s that simple isn’t it. Not so fast. If we are going to risk the Agency squillions then we need to make sure we know what we were doing – or at least had a theory as to why we did it. My boss says Floyd knows “bugger all” about the NFL and he’s rich, so his view doesn’t count. So here we go.

Denver have arguably the best Quarterback the game has ever seen and Peyton Manning and his brand of hurry-up offence is just amazing. Not giving defences time to settle, getting them tired when they keep drives going and making teams use time-outs when they don’t want to slow the game up has made them almost unbeatable. As a team Denver have 5 players who have scored 10 TD’s or more this year, they have 3 times scored 50+ and 15 times scored 27+. They average 457.3 yards of offense, every game. And there’s another thing, in the playoffs this year they are the second meanest defence against the run.

Now to the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is an exceptional QB who holds the record in the last two season of having won more games than any other QB in the league. He’s good. Marshawn Lynch has now gone 3 straight times over 1000 yards rushing per season. He has 60 yards average carry per game. That’s super strong running and man is he focused for this game. They can catch the ball as well but they haven’t done it a lot in the play-offs.

How about the coaching staff? For the Broncos John Fox has really moulded a good unit on both sides of the ball and he knows defence wins games. He hasn’t got a winning record in play-off football but then he has never had the talent that Denver have on the field at his disposal. Pete Carroll, who is a relatively new breed coach is taking all before him and he looks a winner. For me the Seahawks just come out in front on this measure.

Neutral ground in New York? Well both teams have a huge home ground advantage normally so honours even in the big apple. Weather conditions similarly, although bad weather suits Seattle better as they don’t pass the ball as much.

So where do we go with this one. The bookies make it almost a pick game with the Broncos @ 5/6 and you can have 11/10 the Seahawks. I have been saying since the Conference Finals that Denver will be too strong. However I am changing my mind. Why you ask? Because Seattle just get the job done. I think they have a genius coach, a very efficient, mobile, and inventive QB and the best running back on display. Oh and another really important thing the fastest, toughest and most mobile defence in the league and I think they can hassle Manning.

My bet 4 units win Seattle @ 11/10 Sportingbet

The Betting Agency Horse Racing team celebrate 6 months of huge profits

Its now 6 months since we started putting up our free horse racing tips. Since we launched in August last year our racing team have delivered an average of more than 50 units profit every month now for 6 months. As of today our horse racing tips total over 354 units profit. This is from bets advised every day and recorded. Every bet every day at prices that are available when we go live at 10.30am. (see our tipping page for January for proof)

That is an extraordinary result. To put that in to context if you followed our tips for just £100 per unit since we started in August you would now have a profit of £35,000. Do you know that to earn £35,000 after tax you have to have salary of over £50,000. And this is in 6 months – not a full year.

Now we all know that on any given day you can win and of course you can lose and sure that does happen to our team from time to time but this is 6 months of records and figures, not some flash in the pan. In fact this month, January, we are up over 70 units. That’s a £7,000 profit to a £100 stake.

Obviously we don’t know if anyone else is dong as well but from our industry knowledge it doesn’t look like it.

Some ask how we do this and the simple answer is, just knowledge of the industry. No inside information, no bent horses, no industry sources. We have simply studied and worked with the industry for over 20 years and after that long road we have the losses and the wins to know more than most and of course not as much as some.

Its true, we weren’t behind the Barney Curley master gamble last week and we probably never will be but if you want an interest, day in day out and what appears to be a “nice little earner” then follow our team, show the discipline to be a winner and enjoy horse racing as it was intended.

I will finish this article by suggesting something that all the team seem very excited about after yesterday and that is – Hurricane Fly will win the Champion Hurdle – so get on now at 3-1 with Betvictor

They guys reckon that yesterday, against a well fancied, Our Connor and with the Fly not being 100% in his preparation he showed the resolve of a true champion and he simply refused to be beaten in the Irish Champion. Back him now. how won’t be longer on the 11th March

Who can go on to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy-Saturdays Games Previewed

Just 8 teams remain, 8 teams with the chance of lifting the 48th Vince Lombardi Trophy. In our opinion its a Vintage year with no soft options and truly every team capable of becoming Superbowl Champions. That doesn’t make for easy tipping but it does make for exciting games and it kicks of with a belter.

Game 1 Saturday 9.35 – New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks. Temp: 50f

I put the temperature in above because currently in America that is significant. If Accuweather is right htough it shouldn’t be a factor. Yes Drew brees would prefer to play in the warm or better strill indoors but the Saints are on the raod and just at the minute they are making a good fist of it. What about this weekend though? They deservedly start underdogs.

In week 13 Peter Carrol and his Cover 3 defence, with its ability to create pressure with 3 & 4 man rushes was simply irrepressible and the Saints just couldn’t move the chains. They went down 34-7 and if you wanted to play the perfect defence game against a quality offence – this was it. The question is, can they do it again? To avoid the same result then Sean Peyton and his team are going to have to be explosive and committed to the run and that means big games from Ingram, Robinson and Sproles. The pressure falls on Robinson mostly because he is the one capable of running between the tackles and if he carries 35 times or more then that will mean the Saints are in the game. Problem is Pete Carroll knows that should be the tactic. But will it?

Sean Peyton is a genius and he just might have something special for Carroll to think about. The Saints painted the Seahawks logo on their practice pitch this week to simulate this weekend and there is no doubt both teams are up for it. Statistically both teams score the same amount of points and Russell Wilson is ruthlessly efficient at QB for Seattle scoring the same points with less yards gained. The Seattle defence concedes about 4 less points than the Saints and they have home ground advantage, normally worth another 4 points, so you can see why the Saints are 8 point favourites.

The thing is Seattle don’t have to win by 8 and for that reason we are going to tailor our bet accordingly.

My Bet : 4 units Win New Orleans + 8 @ 10/11 Sportingbet

Game 2 Sunday 12.15am Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Temp 55f

Thankfully we also seem to have avoided the heavy snow and ice at Foxborough this weekend. It can be dam cold in New England at this time of year. However it looks ok at the moment.

For all that the weather is warmer this game doesn’t get me as hot as the previous one. Andrew Luck is an outstanding Quarterback for the Colts and last weeks pure will to win with a 28pt comeback was nothing short of exceptional. It was like one man said I refuse to be beaten and you guys are coming with me. However in Tom Brady you have a Patriots QB who has taken a team, year after year through to the play offs and this year his team was banged up injured from almost week 1 and he got them there.

The similarities are amazing. Both teams have serious injuries to key players. Both QB’s have worked out how to move the ball with other players, Both teams defences have stood up OK. Both teams concede a similar amount of points. There is a 3pt edge in pts. scored to the Patriots but other than that they look very similar.

So the question is, do you take the rising star and never say die attitude of the Colts and Luck or do you side with Mr Seen it all done it all before, Brady. I think the Patriots will win as they have that all important home ground advantage. I couldn’t back them on the handicap conceding 7 so it has to be to win the game.

My Bet 4 units win New England at 1/3 Betvictor

Game 3 San Francisco 49er’s @ Carolina Panthers 6.05 Sky Sports 45f

This game is a bit like the Pats, Colts game. On paper the two teams are very evenly matched. Not a whole lot in it on offence with, on average, San Francisco scoring just over 2 more points per game and on defence the Panthers concede 2 less points than the 49er’s which is why the game is a pick game with the bookies. So we need to look a little deeper and see who can get the job done best tonight.

On a swat analysis the plusses for Carolina are

1. They are at home + 4 points normally.

2. They qualified top of their division – confidence is high

3. Cam Newton is playing very well – exciting, dynamic, one hell of an athlete

4. Steve Smith is Back – one of the best ever Wide Receivers and a future Hall of Famer.

5. In their last 4 games the Panthers are 4-0 against the Bay boys including a win this year – what!!!!. It’s true.

On the negative Side

1. Kaepernick is a better QB than Newton – says who? He learnt a lot in the play-offs last year and he makes fewer mistakes.

2. Frank Gore is a better running back than DeAngelo Williams and running wins play off games. – Says all the figures – man he is tough.

3. Neither Vernon Davis nor Michael Crabtree played in their defeat this season. These two can play and together they make a Steve Smith – plus they have Anquan Boldin.

4. San Francisco don’t fear being on the road. Unbeaten on the road since November last year.

5. I support the 49er’s and I don’t care. Since Joe Montana in the early eighties.

So how does it break down. I think the 49er’s can get it done and I think they are the team capable of beating the Seahawks and winning the NFC and then winning the Superbowl – but then I would say that.

However I’m serious. This is a great test today for them as Carolina are an efficient side who are great to watch but they do make mistakes, with a Quarterback who does the new thing Quarterbacks do (Throw, run, tackle, win games). Thing is Colin Kaepernick does it better.

My Bet 4 units win San Francisco @ 10/11 Sportingbet

Game 4 San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos 9.40 Sky Sports W: 37f

Its been quite a ride for the San Diego Chargers who have come from nowhere to only be two games away from the Superbowl. Fate seems to have ridden with them as has more than a small amount of lady luck. However for mine the train stops in Denver. If you come from the warmer climes of California and they put you a mile up in the air, where you cant breath, in sub zero temperatures with a hostile crowd baying for Denver points and your blood its just not very nice.

That’s the environment Philip Rivers finds himself in. That’s not to say he hasn’t been here before, the problem is this time its against the best offence Denver have assembled in years. Peyton Manning is the X Factor and they have designed a team around him that simply devours yards and scores points.

Manning has over 1000 more yards than Rivers. On average the Broncos score 13 more points per game than the Chargers. Although on the plus side for San Diego they concede 3 less points than Denver. That’s still leaves a statistical deficit of 10 pts per game and 65 yards of offence per game against a team that concede 10 less yards of defence per game than the Chargers.#

The only way San Diego can win this game is if Denver put in a howler. That does happen but it wont happen tonight.

My Bet 6 units win Denver @ 1/4 Sportingbet

Cheltenham Festival Day 1