The Autumn Rugby Union Internationals

A cracking if not confusing weekend of International Rugby Union. Great games and lots of purpose and intent by all teams which makes it cracking rugby, confusing because you have two games kicking off within 15 minutes of each other – why? and some odds that are just weird. That aside its time to get betting and enjoy these games and of course make some money.

Not sure there is much to learn from the Japan – New Zealand game with the visitors ranging from 1/50 – 1-250 in the betting but I will be interested to see what the Rising Sun nation can keep the score to. Its amazing how close the handicap market makers get it and at 34 points and having to get up at 5.45am we will leave that one. But the next two – cant wait.

 

Saturday 2.45 Kick off – Wales v Scotland 

Next off is a belter. Wales v Scotland and whilst I am all for Wales being favourites at home and particualrly after the trouncing they gave Scotland the last time they met I think we will see an entirely different Scottish team in this game. I read with interest the level of coaching, committment and preparation that Gregor Townsend goes in to for these games and whilst I am sure Wales do similarly I think this will be a very tight contest. Wales’ preparation hasnt been ideal with Coach Warren Gatland having to return home to NZ for a family bereavement and these games fall on such fine margins, maybe that will tell. Scotland will not be careless this time around and points will be at a premium I believe, so we will have two bets in the game.

4 units win Scotland +6 at evens with Skybet

2 units Scotland to win @ 21/10 with Skybet

 

Saturday 3.00pm Kick off – England vs South Africa

Now this is where it gets weird. Why this game kicks off 15 minutes later and not 90 minutes later I have no idea. I also dont understand the markets, which is never good because if all the layers believe England are favourites then I am clearly missing something and despite searching I cant find it. So either they or me now lose money, thats they way it should be I guess. Yes I know its fortress Twickenham as England are at home and I know SA have played three hard games in September but they beat and competed well against both the All Blacks and Australia and just at the moment with something like 9 unavailable through injury, England are neither of those two teams and they havent played a single game together yet. The Springboks have picked a massive and experienced pack and England’s pack really lacks experience. I really think this will tell. These players need experience before next years World Cup and this is the best place to get it. Jones knows that, so as long as they compete well then a loss in this game is no big deal with next year in mind. Jeremy Guscott is already talking about 2 England victories out of the 4 games in this campaign being Ok, yet they go in to this game as favourites against a team that are arguably number 2 in the world!

Dont get me wrong I would love England to win but they cant, not yet and South Africa really, really want to put one over them. I dont like South Africa but I like making money more so I will be cheering them on, as much as it hurts.

4 points win South Africa at 6/4 with Skybet.

 

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date, time, stamped of publishing.

 

 

 

 

 

The Super League Qualifiers – what a shame

Not a shame about the competition, a shame that we will never see this  Qualifiers round again thanks to the owners of the Super League clubs voting to dispense with the concept and go back to the boring one up one down system. A simple case of trying to shut the stable door after the horse has bolted and I sincerely hope it comes back to bite them all. It’s not this area that needed shaking up it’s the waste of time Super 8’s that is the problem. So with just one round remaining we have the very real prospect that possibly three Super league clubs could go down and three Championship teams fighting their way in to the Super League. Unlikely, its true but it is possible and that makes this weekends games, starting tomorrow night fascinating and compelling and a great chance to cheer on the underdog.

 

Toulouse were Hull KR’s nemesis – they could do it again

Salford Red Devils vs Toulouse   7.45 Thursday.

If Toulouse lose this game in all probability that is Salford safe and Toulouse out of the contest, even for the million pound game. However, should they win and results go against Salford, the Red Devils could find themselves out of automatice qualifying and playing in yet another million pound game. They sat comfortably at the top of this list for so long and now with an untimely loss they are being dragged back in. The fear is all with the Red Devils. Toulous can play fearless rugby, they have nothing to lose and that for me is when French Rugby teams are at their most dangerous. They play physically agrressive rugby and they throw it around. They are rightly the underdogs but never underestimate pressure and for that reason I think they are a bit of value to pull off the first of our shock results. They shouldnt be 3/1 and this salford side simply isnt that good. Toulouse need to hang in for as long as they can and the pressuire will really start to tell.

Our bet : 3 units win @ 3/1 Toulouse

 

 

Leeds Rhinos vs Toronto Wolfpack 7.45 Friday

For all that the Rhinos look safe that in itself must scare Hull KR and Salford because they just might not be as desperate as the Wolfpack who easilyb accounted for Widnes last weekend (no big deal I hear you say) and should have beaten Hull KR. Will Toronto rue that missed chance. Are they capable of beating Leeds? Well in principle its only a challenge cup game here and these results happen all the time. The Wolfpack are fit and well and looked good last weekend and the Rhinos might not be wound up to play the level of Rugby required to get the points and deny the Canadian team. I cant wait for this game.

3 units win Toronto @ 100-30 with Bet 365

 

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date/time of publishing.

 

 

 

 

The Ryder Cup – Golf at its very best

Tomorrow starts 3 days of the best golf you can see, ever. The Ryder Cup seems to inspire golfers to play in a way that simply defies explanation. Every two years Europe and America challenge each other to see who can rise to the highest possible levels and this year they are doing at the tight Le National course in Paris. A fitting place for a dogfight and that is what I expect.

Make no mistake the USA are favourites and they mean business. They havent won away from home for over 20 years and they are desperate to return to the days when they dominated this event. This American side is the highest rated side that has ever appeared in a Ryder Cup. Figures show their average world ranking is around 11 for their team against 19 for the Europeans. Their captain , Mr

Meticulous, quirky, Jim Furyk has always had his own way of getting things done and he is one dogged individual but he and his Vice Captains, Davis Love, Matt Kuchar et al are hardly the most inspiring group. Whilst they may not inspire another issue with team USA has always been that their superstar team has rarely gelled with the likes of Mickelson and Woods entering the fray with awful records in the Cup relative to their individual abilities. Can Jim do what no other Captain has done and get the best out of these fabulous players? That of course is the big question. If you think yes then they may well prove just too good.

But! Think about this. All of the Europeans have played this course, some a number of times. Two have won at this course and there is no doubting that the National wouldnt be in the top 20 courses in Europe that Jim Furyk would pick to stage the event, if he had his choice. It’s just too tight, it’s been set up like an Open course with no fewer than 4 cuts of rough in a number of places and it’s really tough. The Amercians follow the sun in their tour and they pretty much play the same type of golf week in week out and adapting is something that they struggle with. The two most adept at this are Tiger Woods, who will happily take a 2 iron off the tee for 72 holes and Jordan Speith who has shown he can adapt with his links wins. The others I’m not so sure.

Thomas Bjorn has behind him Graeme Mc Dowell, Padraig Harrington, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood. Not a prima donna amongst them, genuine guys who loved playing in this competition with bags of experience and personality. To me this could be the deciding point. I have always believed that a Champiomn Team will beat a team of Champions and I think at management level the Europeans may have the edge, to go with home ground advantage. I dont think for a second it will be a cakewalk and the draw is inviting at 12/1 but with the USA at a best priced Evens and 5/4 available for the Europeans I am siding with the home team. It might, after Brexit be the last time we British get to take part so lets leave with a win.

Our Recommended Bets.

4 units win Europe @ 5/4 with Betfair

2 units e/w Top American – Tiger Woods @ 15/2 with Skybet

2 units e/w Top debutant – Tommy Fleetwood @ 9/2 with Betfair

 

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date/time of publishing.

Rugby League Saturday Sizzlers

Two great games to get your teeth in to and make the most of before this fabulous season ends.

Warrrington Wolves vs St Helens – Saturday 3.15pm

The first of our games kicks off at 3.15 and its a humdinger between the Warrington Wolves and St Helens. With an away semi final already assured the Wolves play their last home game of the season and it may be they have to play Saints twice in a row, so a win is really important for them and their legion of fans. Justin Holbrooks Saints team know all about momentum after their disasters following a loss to Catalan in the Challenge Cup Final. Poor form for the first time in the season was evident for the next 3 games and he wont want a repeat of that.

Both teams are almost at full strength for this game and neither has rested star players, which shows that both Aussie managers are desperate to get the winning feeling going in to the finals. It will be a tough fixture and I expect Warrington to have just that bit more desire in what will be a tense fixture for at least 60 of the 80 minutes. If either team breaks away late then expect a landslide of points at the death.

Our bet : Back Warrington to win for 5 units @ 10/11 with bet 365  and back 2nd half – more points at 5/6 for 6 units with Coral.

Toronto Wolfpack vs Widnes Vikings – Saturday 5.30pm

At 5.30 the most crucial game of the Qualifiers takes place between Widnes Vikings and the Toronto Wolfpack. Whoever loses this game is going to struggle to make the million pound game and for that reason this will be tense. Widnes have been in shocking form but are showing signs that they can come through this after stopping the rot with a win after 20 consecutive losses, they will need more than just signs to get the win they want and avoid being the first Super L

eague team ever to be automatically relegated. Against them and at home is an exciting Wolfpack that needs to believe and play without fear to win. Brian Noble knows a thing or two about cup football and Paul Rowley, head coach, has his team playing aggressive rugby. The loss of Paul Bussey for 8 games for biting, is a blow but they have some quality fowards with Ashton Simms and the return of winger Matty Russell is a boost for a squad that looks healthy after a 30 match season

 to date. To me this game is a coin toss so when I see 11/8 about the Wolfpack I have to take that on board.

Our bet  4 units win Toronto @ 11/8 with William Hill

 

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date, time, stamped of publishing.

 

The Finals are Hotting up

In the first of our televised Super League games on Thursday the Giants are at home to Wigan. For 70 of the 80 minutes last week the Wolves outplayed the Warriors but then it all clicked again and Wigan showed why they are real title contenders. It’s the first time I have seen them look like a serious challenger to Saints domination. For that reason I think they will again by too strong for the spirited and adventurous Giants who have the best half back in the league in Danny Brough but who lines up behind an inffective pack these days. The power and speed of Wigan will prove too much for the Giants.

Back Wigan for 5 units to win -6 @10/11 with bet 365

On Friday Wakefield got to the Jungle to take on the Tigers in what will be a tough match. Trinity are stregthened with the return of Danny Kirwan and others but the big plus for Cas is that Luke Gale is back and they now have that special spark back who can again sit behind those powerful, hard running forwards and aggressive centres. I dont think Wakefield will be a pushover but they will succomb over 80 minutes to a team that again might just get a home tie with a big win and might get to Old Trafford. They deserve it.

5 units win Castleford -10 @ 10/11 with Betfair

 

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date, time, stamped of publishing.

European Football Returns – Hooray

Some great matches tonight across Europe but the two we are concentrating on are the two live televised games that both feature on BT Sport and include British teams. It looks like being a cracker of a nights viewing.

Inter Milan vs Tottenham @ Guisseppe Meazza Stadium . (To me and you thats the San Siro – who knew?)

17.55 Kick off BT Sport 3

This doesnt have the high profile of later games but Spurs really have drawn the group of death here. In fact you could argue tonight’s opposition are the easiest in the group. For Spurs its going to be a hard nights shift. They are without Ali, Sissoko and Lloris and Pochetino has seen fit to rest both Alderweireld and Trippier from tonights team, such is his confidence in his squad. Luciano Spalleti’s team was beaten on Saturday by Parma, hardly electric form but Spurs have also been beaten by Liverpool, where they dominated for much of the game and Watford, who simply outplayed them. Tottenham are a very good team and even with changes, man for man they have a stronger line-up than Inter Milan. I dont think they will walk the game against an enthusiastic Inter but they shouldn’t lose and for that reason the sensible bet seems Tottenham and the Draw.

4 units win Tottenham and the Draw @4/7 with Skybet

 

Liverpool vs PSG @ Anfield

20.00 Kick off BT Sport 2

A mouthwatering clash that Scousers crave. European football is Liverpool with 5 titles to their name and tonight they get to test the “real deal” tag against the high flying French team who have won 5 of the last 6 Ligue 1 titles but as yet haven’t progressed past the quarter finals in Europe. Make no mistake manager Thomas Tuchel is dead serious about beating Jurgen Klopp tonight, the man he took over from at Dortmund. He even rested Neymar on Saturday to ensure he was 100% fit for tonights fixture and PSG have come to play. Reds fans will be hopeful Bobby Firmino is fit after his finger poking eye problem on Saturday and his availability will have an important influence on the result. This could be something special and I expect goals, lots of goals, as I think both teams are set up to score. So lets cheer on the goals and enjoy the spectacle.

4 units over 3.5 Goals @ 5/4 with William Hill

 

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date, time, stamped of publishing.

Doncaster St Leger meeting – Day 2 Preview

Day 2 of the St leger meeting and we may just have found somec strong tips to be bullish about today. This time of year we need to be backing horses that havent been on the good for long periods and can cope with easier ground. They also need a touch of class at this meeting and that is what we are looking for. Hope the day goes well.

1:50

BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF “CARRIE RED” FILLIES’ NURSERY HANDICAP (Class 2) (2yo) Winner £28,355 13 runners6f111y Good
Traditionally tricky races as you try to work our which 2 year olds are improving fastest or look to have something in hand over their current mark. We are looking for horses that have been re-assesed and havent run for at least 3 weeks to give them growing time and time to recover. I think we could expect a much bigger run from K Club this time but top weight is a tough ask. Strict Tempo fits the mould and may improve past the 77 mark but the one of most interest is Winter Light for Richard Hughes. He may have been put in off a lower mark than what he achieved, which doesnt happen often and has had time to come on again. At 6/1 he looks a bit of value.

2:25

WILLIAM HILL MAY HILL STAKES (GROUP 2) (FILLIES) (Class 1) (2yo) Winner £39,697 11 runners 1m Good
Our nap goes in this race. The debut winner Dubai Beauty was impressive without being showey and is extremely well bred. Seed Bin Suroor has given the filly time to recover and he will be very keen to show he has a class filly on his hands. Look out for his filly running at Chester tomorrow. She is also bred in the purple. Peach Tree for Aiden O’Brien is the biggest danger.
 3:00
DFS PARK HILL STAKES (GROUP 2) (FILLIES & MARES) (Class 1) (3yo+) Winner £56,710 7 runners 1m6f115y Goo
A tough renewal of this race with lots of confidence behind the unexposed 3yo,  Pilaster and rightly so after ruinning up a hat trick on different surfaces for Roger Varian but the 6/5 looks a bit skinny. I like the look of the Balding horse, Horseplay, who has so far delivered slightly more for trainer Andrew Balding and whilst 4th may not look great last time out she was only 3 lengths behind Sea of Class, a fancy for the Arc and that was only her second run after a long break. She should come on again and this longer trip is certain to help. 4 year olds have a surprisingly good record in this race with honours about even over the last 10 years.

3:35

WEATHERBYS RACING BANK £300,000 2-Y-O STAKES (Class 2) (2yo) Winner £147,540 22 runners 6f111y Good
Another tough race, as it should be for £300,000. These sales races though regularly run to both form and the weight concessions available due to breeding. Having looked through them all I couldnt keep away from the favourite Aim Power at 5/1. He was outpaced coming down the hill at Goodwood in a good race and then stayed on well. This big galloping track should help and if David Egan can keep him in touch over this slightly longer trip, he will be staying on with the weight allowance being too much for the others. In a big race I feel very strongly about this Richard Hannon horse. This is the type of race his father used to farm.
 4:05
SILK SERIES LADY RIDERS’ HANDICAP (PRO-AM LADY RIDERS’ RACE) (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-90) Winner £12,938 19 runners6f2y Good
In this Pro/Am Lady Riders race this is what Megan Nichols has to say about her ride Eastern Impact. “I think I’ve got a good chance with Eastern Impact. He’s down in grade for the first time in a while and he’s been running really well. On his last run at York, he’s got a really good chance.”
That ladies and gentlemen will do for me. At 6-1 I’m not looking any further as every tick seems to be in the right box. So lets get stuck in

4:40

MECHANICAL FACILITIES HANDICAP (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £15,563 10 runners 1m2f43y Good
As you would expect from a Class 2 race this is tough and this is where we go to left field slightly and see if we can poach a big price winner. Les Eyre does extremely well with his small string and Cote D’Azur rarely runs a bad race. I thought the mile was too sharp last time out where he almost led with a furlong to go asnd then lost out in a pace battle. This longer trip seems more to his liking and at 14/1 he looks a bit of value. You dont have to get involved but I think we will out run that price easily.

Note : All prices advised are correct at  the date time stamped of publishing.

Rugby League Preview – Week 3

After a week off in which Catalan justified their negative approach to the Super 8’s by winning the Challenge Cup we now get back to business with some interesting games in both the Super 8’s and the Qualifiers. The trick here is to find the games that really matter and in the Super 8’s some aren’t that important but in the Qualifiers every game and point counts at this stage, so let’s start there.

The Qualifiers.

Saturday 1st

The best half back line in Rugby League- but not now

Leeds Rhinos vs Hull KR  3.15 pm

Both teamns will be desperate for the 2 points and having lost one of their games already it is a vital fixture for the Robins. Leeds cant afford a slip up either or they slide to 3-2 and join so many others in what will quickly become a dog fight for survival. The problem for the Robins is they just don’t have the playmakers and opportunities are too hard to create. For that reason Leeds will win at home.

6 points win Rhinos @ 1/3 with bet 365

 

 

Toulouse vs Widnes 5.00pm

Tough game for the Vikings, away, who havent won a game in the qualifiers. Somehow the bookies have Widnes as slight favourites and whilst they are stronger on paper they have little or no confidence, they lack cohesion and you can see the fear rising. Toulouse play with flair and courage and at home are really tough. They are bouyed by the success of Catalan and French Rugby league looks like getting stronger with another win this weekend against the odds

4 points win Toulouse @ 5/4 with Skybet

 

Toronto Wolfpack vs London Broncos 5.30pm

The Wolfpack are at home and take on the Broncos with both teams having a win and a loss. It was the home team who let a golden chance slip last time against Hull KR and the fact that they should have claimed a Super League scalp and be 2-0 leads me to suspect they will be too strong for the Broncos, who have had a magical run. But at 100/30 on, best priced with Betfair, they arent a lot of value.

In the Sunday game Halifax will succumb to Salford making them 3 from 3 and in fact the 1/4 on offer with bet 365 is much better value than the 1/3 about the Wolfpack.

The Super 8’s

Thursday 30th August 7.45pm

The best half back line in Rugby League

Warrington vs Hull

This is Hulls best chance of a victory. So many teams fall by the wayside after a Challkenge Cup Final but given Hull are 0-6 latest and Warrington are fighting for home ground advantage in the Semi’s, I think we will see a focused Wolves who will be too strong at home. Hull are without Minichello, Green and most importnaly Mark Sneyd their ace playmaker and kicker whereas the Wolves seem to have got through last weekend unscathed. The handicap line is 10 poimnts and I dont fancy that so we will just back the Wolves to win

9 points win Warrington at 1/3 with Skybet

Friday 31st August 7.45pm

St Helens vs Wigan

The Saints can secure their league leaders title tonight and it would be a fitting celebration at home for a side that has all year played the best, most error free Rugby. Wigan are no pushover and with Sean O’Loughlin back and Oliver Gildaart they will be even tougher to master. I expect the Saints to crown their season at home and secure top place for the finals but it wont be easy and the 10 point handicap with Sky seems wrong.

5.5 points win Wigan +10 points at 8/11 with Skybet.

 

 

Super League – The Super 8’s Round 2

It was a cracking weekend of Rugby last weekend with the highlights for me being the gutsy victories of both the London Broncos and the Salford Red Devils. Maybe because we tipped those wins against the odds but I thought they were really intense games. We kick off with the Super 8’s this weekend and tonight’s game is one that has the bookies in a turmoil, as do one or two other fixtures coming up. Lets see if we can make a few more bucks.

Wakefield vs St Helens – Thursday 7.45pm

If this game were to be played 3 weeks ago St Helens would be 1/3 but they go to Belle Vue tonight as the slight favourites at 8/11 against a Wakefield team that welcomes back playmaker and talisman, Scott Grix, who hasnt played since May. Saints are without Thompson, who has a 1 match ban but other than that they go in to the game almost at full strength. On the surface Trinity appear to have little to play for as their points difference looks far too great to get in to the top four and after two straight losses in the league Saints may well be vulnerable. Rugby players dont seem to have a half pace switch so the Saints can not expect an easy run. Some could assume that Saints, with a 10 point lead, dont need this win but they will be desperate to right the ship.  I expect a touigh game but I think Justion Holbrook will have his men back to peak mental concentration and we could see a real league title indication performance from the team that a month ago everyone said would walk the league. For that reason they must be backed to win tonight.

5.5 units St Helens at 8/11 with Skybet.

 

Friday Games  – all start at 7.45pm

Tigers vs Wolves at the Jungle

This one has got me confused. If you asked me who was higher in the league I would have said Warrington, who when they are on song look unbeatable and every game I have watched of Castleford this year they have been awful, yet the Tigers are 2 points ahead of the Wolves and have only lost 7 of their 23 games. Tonight the Tigers are favourites based around home ground advantage but to me they are missing 3 important players. Jess Sene-Lafao, QLT and Adam Milner. The Wolves have Ratchford, Mudoch-Masilla and Cooper back, although Livet and Charnley are absent. My concern is that last week Wigan were over 20 points ahead in a heartbeat and whilst the Tigers did work there way back in to the game they were chasing shadows. If they play like that tonight they will get beaten easily. I think Warrington are an exceptioanlly good team and they will win in a hostile environment.

4 units win Warrington at 15/8

The Giants  against Hull is interesitng but only because The Giants believe if they just keep winning they can make the top 4. They may be right and they have the belief. They will prove too strong but at 2/5 I am not that interested.

The Qualifiers

Saturday

Salford are the 2/5 favourites against Widnes but I fear a backlash from the 17 consecutive losses that Francis Cummins (still in a job!!) team, the Vikings, have suffered and Salford are just the kind of team not to turn up at the atmosphereless ground that they call home.

Small bet-  2 units Widnes at 11/4 with Bet 365

Toulous are massive favourites at home against Halifax and they will win so if you want to put them in an acca at 2/7 with Hills then that could be one of your bankers.

Toronto are not past the post against Hull KR and are 8/11 but that probably reflects the home ground advantage they enjoy in front of a very partisan crowd.

5 units win Toronto @ 8/11 with Skybet

The final game is a belter on Sunday. Can the Broncos upset the apple cart again against Super league opposition and go 9 games unbeaten, this time they take on the might of the Rhinos. I think not. The Rhinos will get it done – ugly, but they will get it done and you can safely back them at 8/15 with Betfair

5 units win Leeds @ 8/1 5 with Betfair

 

 

Super Rugby League – The Super 8’s

Four games kick off the 1st round of the Super 8’s and this excites us far less than the qualifiers. Why? becuase the teams keep their points and even then where you finish from 1-4 doesnty really matter that match with not many coming from below 5 over the last few years anyway. Taht aside everyone wants to win and tonights 4 games are at least interesting.

 

Hull vs Wakefield Trinity

You would imagine even away from home that the Wildcats might be too strong for Hull after their last meeting and Hull, who have realy had an indifferent season and conceded 72 points to Wakefield when they last met. However Hull have won 5 of their last 6 encounters and when they get it right they are a handfull for anyone. I think they just might be over priced in this game and need to be backed.

6 units win @ 4/6 with William Hill

 

St Helens vs Huddersfield Giants

It’s probable that St helens will win the league but they dont have to do too much tonight, except win and they just might find the new Giants team (dont know which one they sent out before June but it was a rubbish one) just may be the more highly motivated. It would surprise me if the Saints let it slip because they are focused but the Giants had a week off and there is often a post Challenge Cup semi final hangover. Lets see.

4 units win Huddersfield +10.5 with William Hill

 

Warrington vs Catalan

Both teams will fight out the Challenge Cup final and this seems a strange dress rehearsal but it is equally important that both perform well in the play offs so they should be at it form the start. Who gave more to win last weekend? My guess is that the Wolves will have more in the tank and the revitalised Dragons might not have the guns to win. However they are not a 12 point worse team and we need to take that handicap.

Catalan +12,  4 units @ 11/10 with William Hill

 

Wigan vs Castleford

The Tigers have been awful this year. Painful to watch at times, as their defence, something they prided themselves on last year, has just melted, week after week. But there appears to be a turning of the tide and the once DW Stadium fortress looks less foreboding to visitors as Wigan dont seem to be able to stop people scoring either. It’s the televised game and we will take the Tigers to do a Leeds of old and come good in the play offs.

4 units win Castleford at 9/5 with William Hill