We got off to another flyer yesterday with a 10/1 winner of the opener and then a 20/1 placed in the second race. Today see’s more terrific horses and some outstanding racing and prospects. The excitement continues. Punting isn’t always about winning (yes it is Ed), yes its that much more pleasurable when you do but getting a good shout in for a 20/1 shot and the expectation of a big pay out is great for the spirit. Winning is better so let’s find some more winners today.

2.30 Norfolk Stakes Group 2 5f

Lets be aggressive about this race and say straight away that only one of 5 horses can win. If that’s the case then we are a 4/1 shot to find the winner before looking deeply at the form. Red Lodge is the sole filly in the field and Wesley Ward has already had the mighty impressive winner in Lady Aurelia, its improbable that he has two immense talents in the one stable, unless they are feeding their juveniles something we haven’t seen yet and whilst she was very impressive in her sole run this has to be too much for her to sparkle today. Silver Line for Godolphin won a Nottingham maiden in taking style and has lots of upside but needs to improve nearly a stone to take this race on previous evidence – not impossible but unlikely. Legendary Lunch has won 2 from 3 but looks vulnerable to me over 5 furlongs and has to improve 7lbs to take a hand in this race which leaves us with Peace Envoy and Global Applause. Peace Envoy accounted for Lundy in a listed race at Naas last time out and on a strict line of form Lundy was well beaten by Mehmas earlier in the week who was beaten by Global Applause – if this was a mathematical equation then Global Applause wins. Sadly they are not machines but that doesn’t put me off a strong fancy and another winner for Frankie Dettori and Ed Dunlop, who was in sparkling form but just a little off the boil recently.

4 units e/w Global Applause @ 9/4 with Racebets

3.05 Tercentenary Stakes – Group 3 1 mile 2f

This is a race that is again framed around potential and punting is about opinions. Mine seems not to agree with bookmakers or pundits. For me Long Island Sound has performed well in easy races and this is tougher, so despite the wins I don’t see a progressive horse (I have been wrong before!!!)Abdon was 2nd to Hawkbill in only his second start and ran a big figure and should improve and is the favourite. I can see why but I dont like his sire who I think breeds soft horses and I couldn’t forgive myself if I lost money backing this horse at cramped odds. Prize Money, the Godolphn runner,  is the likely pace setter and if not taken on could just steal it. For me, proven at the trip and capable of running a great time in these conditions. Steel of Madrid is the most progressive in my eyes with performances that go from 77-1o5 in a straight line. He is of course the most exposed. Blue De Vega might also carry the same warning – but not at 10f where I think the step up will really suit. I think we need two against the field here at decent prices, they are:-

1 unit e/w Blue De Vega @ 9/2 with Racebets

1 units e/w Prize Money @ 13/2 with Racebets

3.40 The Ribblesdale Stakes – Group 2  1 mile 4f

There is only one question in this race. Has Architecture recovered from finishing second in the Oaks 13 days ago. If you think the answer is yes then you have to lump in to this horse. Ralph (pronounced Rafe as only certain families can!) Beckett’s horses are in great nick. He knows how to look after one and every other horse in the race has to improve almost a stone to get to what she is capable off. She may well be able to run below that form and still  win. There was daylight behind her and Minding at Ascot and they were meant to be the best at this trip. So are this lot the 2nd best and if so does she have to be at her best to win today? My money says she will romp home – but I thought that about the Japanese horse yesterday (wealth warning)

6 units e/w Architecture @ 5/2 with Racebets

4.20 The Gold Cup Group 1   2mile 4f

What a race this is. I love staying races and this sees a vintage renewal. I have eliminated, reluctantly, half the field on the grounds that they don’t quite look the type capable of winning a race of this calibre. I think the winner is in these nine horses. Clever Cookie who will love the ground but may just find this trip 2 furlongs too far. Fun Mac, who was second at this trip but hasn’t had the benefit of a run this year, which he did have last year. Flying Officer and Mizzou who fought out a contest earlier in the year with the latter named triumphing on that occasion Mille Et Mille, the French raider who has won a Group 1 over this trip in France. Max Dynamite who was accounted for by Pallasator, the Sir Mark Prescott runner, at Sandown in their prep race and finally Order of St George who is the class horse, won over 14f and is the favourite for a trainer in Aiden O’Brien, who has won this race 6 times in the last 10 years. In getting to a bet I am dodging the favourite. This trip is 6 furlongs further than he has ever been and I cant take evens knowing that. If he is a banker then so be it. I will applaud loudly. I will take proven breeding and a little potential for my two against the field who I also think have a touch of class

2 units e/w Pallasator @ 20/1 with Betvictor

1 unit e/w Max Dynamite @ 8/1 with Racebets

5.00 Brittannia  Class 1 Hcp  1 mile

Two favourites in the last 10 runnings have won this race so you need to look outside the box sometimes. I always do my research before seeing any prices and I don’t know as I write this who the favourite is or how they bet it. My six for starters are Manson, Abe Lincoln, Out and About, Garcia and Yattwee.  There is something about the way Yattwee won that makes me think this horse has an awful lot of ability and that this handicap is just the start. Garcia won over a mile at Haydock on good to soft and is logical and Out and About’s win has been franked by the 3rd going in since. I am going to back three in this race

1 unit e/w Garcia @ 12/1 with Racebets

1 unit e/w Yattwee @ 25/1 with Coral

1 unit e/w Out and About @ 9/1 with Skybet

5.35 King George V Handicap 1 mile 4f

I had a banker for this race – It was Red Verdon and then they decided to run it in the Derby, where it finished 5th. I think it would have been a good thing in this handicap!!!. So onwards and upwards. I can make a case for most in this handicap as you should be able to but there are three I like, Lovell who tries 12f for the first time but was staying on over 10f at Sandown on this ground and looked like an improver for further, Shraaoh who was an easy winner at Newcastle  over 10f and seems to have a lot more in the tank and Midhmaar who I like as a horse and has finished second to good winners next time out (Primitivo who races today) and who also tries 12f for the first time. We will take two against the field

1 unit e/w Midhmaar @ 20/1 with Coral

1 unit e/w Shraaoh @ 11/2 with Betway

Yesterday was an exciting day and we kicked off the day with a winner at 6/1 and a placing at 9/1 in the first two races giving us the chance to play with some house money. Today things look tough again as you would expect but by looking deep in to form and class we might be on to something, other than the obvious horse in the Prince of Wales who has to be backed today.

 

2.30 The Jersey Stakes  – Group 3 for 3yo. 7f

In a field of 21 it is hard to be dogmatic as much can happen to horse between 2 and 3 and what you are looking for is someone who has picked this race as an easier option than yesterday’s St James Palace but has the class to run in a race like that. I have found three that I think fit that bill. The first is Ibn Malik.  As a 2yo he was just 3/4 length behind yesterdays St James winner, Galileo Gold in a Group 2 race and his easy win in a listed race over 7f on rain softened ground first time out this year tells me he is primed for today. Hugo Palmer must be over the moon with yesterdays success and he brings Gifted Master to this race who he has always believed would be a lot better at 7f so today he has that trip if not the perfect ground. I don’t think the ground will be an excuse if this one doesn’t win. My final horse is Ribchester, 3rd in the Guineas, wouldn’t have turned that form around yesterday but will certainly have a lot to offer in this race for Richard Fahey, who doesn’t have many from Godolphin in his stable and will want the big stage winner. One of these three will win this race as long as there isn’t a draw bias. I have a sneaking suspicion that middle to high will prove to be better and all of course are drawn low so that may be cause for concern. If this proves correct then Thikriyaat will win. However I think these three are very good so lets back them all.

1 unit e/w Ribchester @ 10/1 with Coral

1 unit e/w Ibn Malik @ 11/1  with Skybet

2 units e/w Gifted Master @ with Coral

 

3.05 Queen Mary – Group 2 for 2yo Fillies 5f

Not a race to get heavily involved in. Clearly there will be a lot of money for Wesley Wards’  Lady Aurelia as she looks very speedy on the evidence of her one US run. Can she last home? What does she look like?  The French trained Al Johrah is 2 from 2 and will find conditions ideal today and the lurker for me is Clem Fandango for Keith Dalgleish. Keith is a trainer going places and this one came from a wide draw to just lose the Hilary Needler over this trip at Beverley, a stiff 5f. Overlooked in the betting but not by us,. I expect her to run a big race for us in the face of the obvious.

1 unit e/w Clem Fandango @ 20/1 with Skybet

 

3.40 Duke of Cambridge Stakes Group 2 Filles and Mares  1 mile

Another really compelling race which I have narrowed down to 6 horses from 14, all for whom I could make a compelling case. The logical first one is Usherette, she was a good winner over 9f at Newmarket and beat a proven Group 1 horse in Arabian Queen who was having her first run over a trip short of her best but this horse is  3 from 3 and the Newmarket figure was very strong. Lucida is my over the cliff horse, she was given a stinker last year by Manning but she is talented, has had a prep race and this drop in class is well within her grasp. Miss Temple City was just behind Lucida last year and she is again a class dropper having run her best ever in the season pipe opener at Keeneland, winning a Group 1 race. Will the slower ground suit – if so then she will take all the beating even with her Grp 1 penalty. Always Smile is progressive but will need to improve about 6lbs on what we have seen so far to win this – and she may, Devonshire will love the ground and in another year would be short to win this but this is a Group 1 in all but name and she may just come up a little short. If there is more rain Maimara will run really well. She has won black type races on heavy ground in her career. A great race. So lets have two against the field.

1 unit e/w Miss Temple City @ 16/1 with Betfair

1 unit e/w Lucida @ 9/1 with Skybet

 

4.20 Prince of Wales Stakes – Group 1  1 mile 2f

Found, Western Hymn, My Dream Boat and Tryster are all very good horses. The Grey Gatsby is a Group 1 winner but isn’t at his best on rain softened ground and probably wont run and for that reason A Shin Hikari, who won his last race on soft ground by 10 lengths is a certainty. You have to get on. I expect this horse to start at 2/5 today so hoover up anything bigger than that for as much as you can lay your hands on. His price is so wrong that I have double checked and triple checked all my figures to ensure I haven’t missed something that bookmakers know – I havent!!!

8 units win A Shin Hikari  @ 8/11 with Betfair

 

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup – Class 2 Hcp 1 mile

The annual Cavalry Charge and always difficult. Funny how we spend so much time trying to solve this riddle. I will just go with 3 in this race and try to cover the track, high, low and middle draws. My three are, the top weight GM Hopkins (Drawn 18), so impressive winning a listed race on soft ground against proven Group horses and last years winner. Despite top weight he may well have improved again and he loves big fields and travels so well. Hassanour (Drawn 8) looks to be ready to take a hand in a race like this for the in form Irishman, Michael Halford and finally the Sir Michael Stoute trained Convey (Drawn 33) is the ideal type of horse to win something like this. That should give as a run in each part of the track. Lets see.

1 unit e/w Convey @ 10/1 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w GM Hopkins @ 22/1  with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Hassanour @ 25/1 with Skybet

 

5.35 The Sandringham Listed  – Fillies – 1 mile

Not a race to spend too much time on as this is really difficult.  The unbeaten Persuasive is the worthy favourite but on breeding and ground I think this mile will test her. I had a liking for Czabo who might have had the class and experience to win a race of this nature and ran a big figure to win in France on soft ground and looked to be over priced however she doesn’t go so lets take the horse she beat by a length, Class Vendome. In a tough race she will be my selection. Proven trip and ground horses with a touch of class and experience at big prices for Nicola Clement and Stephen Pasquier.

1 unit e/w Class Vendome @ 33/1 with Bet 365

 

Bet 365 have said that apart from Best Odds Guaranteed and Live streaming of every race they will go best priced every horse at Royal Ascot today

 

 

 

 

•  

Royal Ascot – Day 1 Preview

The greatest equine show on earth comes to town today and not a moment too soon. True, the ground could be better to see these stars of today and the future at their best but by and large really good horses go on any ground and some better for it. So lets not panic too much about that and let’s find a way to make some money on Day 1 so we can play the rest of the week with house money. These are our selections having watched a topsy turvy season unfold.

The Queen Anne Stakes  2.30  1 mile Group 1

This is one of the best renewals in terms of competitiveness, that we have had in recent years. It’s possible to make a case for no fewer than 8 horses and whilst you may think that makes betting difficult, my view is that we just might have an angle in to this that gives us the edge in the opener. There has been money for Ervedya because of the soft ground and its true she does go best on this ground. The problem is her best is only as good as a couple who are still unexposed so I think she is a lay for a place in this race. Smart people like Esoterique but her best even on rain softened ground cant produce the figure you need to win this race. Kodi Bear could surprise a few and is capable of a place on this ground and his trainer Clive Cox has no glass ceiling for his horses but we may have seen the best of him already and that doesn’t get it done either. Belardo won in laboured fashion in the Lockhinge and is ok on the ground . His trainer said he has come on for that and clearly he can run a number that you need to win this race. He is the right age too and will be in the places. That leaves me with my two fancies and you have to back both. Endless Drama who will relish the ground, strip fitter for being just behind Belardo and has the profile to run a big number, as does the American Tepin who spends most of her time running on good ground and faster but has put in some great numbers on soft ground as well.

1 unit e/w Endless Drama @ 13/2 with Racebets

1 unit e/w Tepin @ 6/1 with Racebets

 

The Coventry Stakes   15.05  Group 2 6f

I wont waste too long on this race simply because we don’t know enough about all the horses on this ground and so you could have a winner run to a mark it will never hit again at 33/1 because it loves the ground and we cant know that yet. So stakes to a minimum but I have to be with Mehmas. He will love the soft ground and more importantly 6 furlongs. 5 was too short last time out. Aiden O’brien and Ryan Moore were all the rage last year and Caravaggio is definitely capable of putting up a big number but as usual you are being asked to take a short price about potential because of the connections. Sometimes that’s good sometimes not. Psychedelic Funk for Ger Lyons is appealing at 6/1 but I just haven’t seen enough to wade in and Yalta could do the job for Mark Johnston. I will stick with Richard Hannon’s horse with Frankie on board.

1 unit e/w Mehmas at 9/1 with Coral

 

The Kings Stand   3.40  5f  Group 1.

A great race of flying machines and sadly the standing dish in sprints, Sole Power is out due to the ground. However I think we can concentrate on three horses who all go on the ground and a previous race that shows how this could end up. Meccas Angel, Profitable and Waady filled the first three places at Haydock on rain softened ground and I think they will do so again but with a slightly different outcome.

I think Meccas Angel will triumph this time and might have done last time but for being intimidated and without the benefit of a run which Profitable did have. I also think given the proximity of Waady in that race, that his price is simply too big and he has to be backed.

1 unit e/w Waady @ 16/1 with Boylesports

4 units win Meccas Angel @ 2/1 with Betway

 

The St James Palace  16.20  1 mile  Group 1

What a great race. The 3 best European mile winners from Ireland, UK and France all line up on ground they are proven on, if not preferred but with no excuses. I can’t see the winner coming from outside the first 3 in the betting. I am going to take on The Ghurka, for all that he has put the best in France to the sword on this type of ground I think 11/8 is just too short for a horse that has to improve again to beat the other two. Clearly Galileo Gold is top draw but I think we are in danger of believing that our Guineas was a good renewal and he was awarded a figure based on what you need to win the race normally and not what he actually achieved. That leaves us with Awtaad, who on this ground is the real deal and has loads more to come.

He has to be backed to win this race:

4 units win Awtaad @2/1 with Racebets

 

The Ascot Stakes   5.00  Class 2   2 mile 4f

I wanted to be with Galizzi in this race. he had no right to win at Kempton having tanked around and then found more which was amazing, however I cant find him having run anywhere near his best on rain softened ground. He could still win but I wont be on. Penglai Pavilion has real class but a draw of 20 makes it tough. Sempre Medici has to be respected with Willie Mullins having won 50% of the last 4 renewals and the enigmatic Silver Concorde features heavily in a lot of people’s reckoning. Have I named the winner here? You coudn’t be certain but at good odds Charlie Appelby’s runner is the selection as he has real class and has won a graded race over this far over the sticks and is simply too big in the betting..

1 unit e/w Penglai Pavilion @  25/1 with William Hill

 

The Windsor Castle   17.35  5f Listed

We wont be giving anything back in this race but if you need to have a bet back Kananee and Tomily. They both look the type capable of winning this race and could have been tried in other more adventurous races.

1 unit e/w Kananee @ 14/1 with Racebets

 

 

 

 

 

•  

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–  Money back if 2nd in Race 1 at Royal Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes (2:30pm GMT): Day of race fixed odds market only. Refund only if your selected horse finishes second. Refund applied as bonus cash. Max £/€25 total refund. Bonus must be wagered 3 times. Win/win parts of each-way bets. Offer subject to a minimum of 5 runners starting the race. UK/Irish/UAE customers only.  Offer applies to the first single bet placed by a customer on the race. One promotion offer applies per race unless otherwise stated. Bets placed with a free bet or bonus cash do not qualify for this promotion.

– 4 Places In The Windsor Castle Stakes (5:35pm GMT).

– 1/4 Odds all Royal Ascot Races. 

 

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•  

The Euros

The eagerly awaited Euro 2016 Championships have finally arrived and expectation for England is as high as ever.

Sadly, England very rarely deliver in these competitions but we live in hope that the new generation will play without fear and with lots of expression and do us proud. Hopefully they will take a leaf out of the Cricketers book and see how fearless cricket can release the immense ability that some possess. Will that be enough?

Group A  – looks like an ideal place for the hosts to be seen with only Switzerland providing stern opposition. As long as Didier Deschamp has his men fired up and the Gallic lethargy and complacency doesn’t take over then we expect them, like everyone else, to qualify top of their group with the Swiss taking the runner up spot. Nothing too clever there but it does help us frame the knockout stage.

Group B – features England and whilst this isn’t too exciting as a goal scoring group it will test the will of the English as both Russia and Slovakia play hard football. Russia will be tough to break down with almost all of their squad playing domestic football and Slovakia seem to have a few quality players across the park who can make life difficult. Sadly the same can not be said for Wales. Whilst Gareth Bale is an outstanding footballer he cant go and get the ball and then run it down the pitch all game to score. They just don’t have enough class across the field to compete and will finish bottom of this group. England need to score goals and if they do they will win the group. They have more firepower up front then any other team in their group and we expect them to win Group B. Russia should slide through, probably on goal difference as we don’t think they will concede many.

Group C  – looks a hard task for our Northern Irish team. They are up against a German side who have class across every position and will win this group. I know they haven’t shown too much of it recently but they always play well in big cups and this will be no exception. Poland look booked for second place with the ability to score goals and play physical football, which leaves NI and Ukraine to fight out 3rd place and we think Ukraine will take that position.

Group D – is aptly lettered as this looks like the Tournament group of death – every tournament has one and normally England are in it. Spain will probably win it because they just ooze class in every position but they cant afford to ease up. Croatia, Turkey and the Czech Republic are all decent sides with match winners and this looks a right scrabble for 2nd and 3rd with we think, the 3rd place qualifier coming from this group as well. We have Croatia qualifying second and Turkey edging the Czech Republic out of the frame.

Group E – is again an interesting group with lots of betting opportunities. Our dark horse for the semi’s is in this group as we think Belgium are the class act this year and that they can qualify first over the rather dull but effective Italian side. Sweden who with Italy look to struggle to score goals should take 3rd because the Republic of Ireland, who always play with passion have a lot better jockeys and horses than they do footballers.

Group F – is dull and holds little interest. Iceland and Hungary are poor. Portugal have such expectation behind them every time they play and I am sure they will top the group but they are always so short, they are bit liking backing a Roger Varian horse, always over bet. Austria look OK. efficient and capable but no killer blow. They should take the runner up spot in the group.

 

So if we are right what does this all mean. For us it means this. England play Portugal in the quarter final and win that to make it to the Semis. Spain Play Poland in the last 8 and beat them to face England. France play Austria in the same round and France triumph on their way to winning the cup and our upset is that in the final quarter Germany get beaten by Belgium who then play France in that semi Final.

Our pre-tournament bets look like this.

4 units win France to win Euro 16 @ 16/5  with 888.com

2 units win England/France final @ 25/1 with Betvictor

1 unit win England/Spain/France and Belgium to be the Semi Finalists @ 100/1 with Skybet

2 units win Austria to make the quarter finals @ 13/8 with Bet 365

2 units win Belgium to reach the Semi-finals @  5/2 with Bet 365

 

 

•  

Aintree Day 3 Preview

Day 2 was a tough one, but today we have all the enthusiasm for a good battle and some success on what is the day of the Greatest race in the world. The Crabbies Grand National.

1.45 Gaskells Waste Management Handicap Hurdle

Kings Palace put in a good performance to finish 3rd in the Cheltenahm chase last time out and I really don’t think that hill suits his style of racing. Aintree back over hurdles could see his real class and he needs to be in our team. I am worried about Tiger Roll. Horses that run well in a Triumph need a trip as they get older and Gordon Elliot may have spotted this race for Tiger Roll some time back for his first go over 3 miles. I want to be with At Fishers Cross who has tumbled from 160 down to 148 on the back of his trainer having had a dire winter. She is back with a vengeance and this Grade 1, 3 mile winner has to be backed in handicap company today.

1 unit e/w At Fishers Cross @ 25/1 Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Kings Palace @ 12/1 Bet 365

1 unit e/w Tiger Roll @ 25/1 Bet 365

 

Yorkhill, Douvan and Thistlecrack will all win as very short priced favourites the next three races. You might want to put them in an accumultor but it still only pays about 8/11 and after yesterdays fall by Vatour is there much mileage??

4.20 Betfred Handicap Chase

I want to be with Racing Pulse in this race. A good test at Carlisle when Rebecca Curtis’s horses where just coming back to form saw him perform really well. I then think they looked after his mark by running him over an inadequate 2 mile 4f with this race in mind. He is lightly raced and is a really good looking individual.

1 unit e/w Racing Pulse. @ 20/1 Bet 365

 

5.15 The Crabbies Grand National 

The best race of the year. 40 go to post over a track that simply isnt the same challenge it was and for that reason the big priced winners become less. We need to look for good horses and in my opinion there is none better than Many Clouds. In his prep race at Kelso last time out he was imperious and showed me, dissimilar to other National winners, he was better than ever and I dont believe 6lbs will stop him. If it does it could be that the other class act in the race, Silviniaco Conti enjoys jumping these fences, something he is very good at and the lack of a hill sees him to great effect. He has made me a lot of money over the years and owes me nothing so  I think he could have another good day on Merseyside, just like he has down the road at Haydock where he loves that flat track. Holywell is my third against the field. He looks strong and has some decent form that says this could be ideal for him today.

1 unit e/w Many Clouds @ 10/1 Betway

1 unit e/w Silviniaco Conti @ 14/1 Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Holywell. 18/1 @ Bet 365

 

6.10 Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle

I will be backing Master Jake in the last and despite his good performances coming in to this anyone who knows me knows why I am backing this horse. Sorry guys, its come to this!!!!

1 unit e/w Master Jake @ 22/1 Betway

•  

Aintree Day 2 Preview

An OK day 1 with our nap Cue Card bolting up. On to day 2 as the ground gets quicker and the form perhaps a little harder to read.

1.40 Alder Hey Childrens Charity Handicap Hurdle 2 mile 4f

The Inval won this last year and showed some better form in his last time out run at Cheltenham., He is 4lbs higher than when winning last year and at 6 may still have a best run in him. Virgilio has only one blemish on his record and could be anything. The better ground will certainly help him. Starchitect is interesting for the in form Pipe stable and he may be the surprise package and I am very fond of Ma Du Fou whose listed win last time out at Huntingdon was what I expected. Its a tough one for starters.

1 unit e/w Virgilio @ 12/1 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Ma Du Fou @ 8-1 with Skybet

 

2.15 Imaging Cruising First in the Frame Top Novices Hurdle 2 miles

Agrapart looks the real deal and Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly have teamed up really well all year. Quicker ground is a question but this horse is such a good mover it might be nothing. Bleu Et Rouge for Willie Mullins puts a set of strong credentials up and has my respect after a great performance 2 back at Leopardstown with Buveur D’Air a real chance for Nicky Henderson. They all have it to do to beat Limini who scythed through the field at Cheltenham  and whilst this wasn’t the best figure on offer she was not extended and might be a real superstar in the Annie Power mould. Believe your eyes.

4 units win Limini @ 11/8 with Betfair

 

2.50 Betfred Mildmay Novices Chase 3 miles

Blaklion was our tip at Cheltenham but I am not convinced this quicker track will suit this hardened stayer who will win the National in 2 more years. Native River has a huge heart but again this will all come to quickly for him. Ballyalton looks class and is the biggest threat to the selection after his win last time out at Cheltenham but I am siding with Un Temps Pout Tout. You follow me in at your peril as I have tipped this on every occasion except when it won last time out. I think the better ground is good and he has some class and speed both of which are important. Only jumping errors will get him beaten

3 units win Un Temp Pout Tout @ 2/1 with Skybet

 

3.25 JLT Melling Chase 2 mile 3f

This race doesnt need a lot of chat. Assuming Vatour stays on his feet he wont be beaten but at 1/4  you wont be backing him and you certainly dont want to lay him. So lets just watch him and enjoy

No Bet.

 

4.05 Crabbies Topham Chase 2 miles 5 furlongs

Village Vic will be popular as he drops back to handicap company after finding the RSA a bit too hot. As De Mee looks a likely candidate after finishing close to Bristol De Mai two back and not quite firing at Cheltenham. This track will suit better and this mark looks friendly. Minella Reception is interesting off a light weight and despite being 10 doesnt have a lot of miles on the clock.

1 unit e/w Minella Reception @22/1 with Skybet

1 unit e/w As De Mee @ 16/1 with Skybet

 

4.40 Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle 3 miles

This might be the perfect trip for Belshill who has always struck me as a staying type and has always competed at the top level. Tomngerry interest me as he hasnt been extended yet and whilst this is a big jump he might just be up to it which leaves Baoulet Delaroque who beat a Skelton class act, Value at Risk and performed well at Cheltenham. Its a tough one but my two against the field are

1 unit e/w Belshill @ 10/1 with William Hill

1 unit e/w Bauloet Delaroque @ 7/1 with Boylesports

 

5.10 Wetherbys Bumper 2 miles

I don’t think there is a lot of depth to this race and on the flat I see no reason why the two who fought it out at Cheltenham wont decide this again. Which one gets its head in front this time, Ballyandy or Battleford?  That’s the choice. At 5/2 each of two the bookies wont separate them so how can we.

Let’s try a  forecast 2 units Ballyandy to beat Battleford @ 11/2

 

 

 

 

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Aintree Day 1 Preview

The last great UK jumping festival of the season and what a belter it is, climaxing of course with the greatest jumps race in the world on Saturday. On to day 1 and lets see if we can get the bank balance rolling.

1.40 Merseyrail Manifesto Novices Chase

The ground will be quickening up after some drying weather and these fences come up fast on the back side of the course. For novices its more the pace they jump at than the trip. I really like Sizing John in this race. His trainer Henri De Bromhead knows a thing or two about smart chasers and the step up to 2m 4f looks a good one for the Douvan runner-up – not once but twice. He has also won over this trip over hurdles as a novice. L’Ami Serge will give him a lot to do and from an outsider I am worried about Bouvreuil who may just improve again for his now in form trainer.

2 units e/w Sizing John @ 3/1 Bet 365

 

2.15 Betfred 4yo Juvenile Trophy 2 miles

I have made the mistake before of believing that the form of three weeks ago will hold up on this very different track but its hard to see beyond three horses. Diego Du Charmil, after his impressive performance last time out but he has to improve and Ivanovich Gorbartov and Apples Jade. They were dominant at Cheltenham and I expect them to be so again. I also don’t believe that there is a better trainer in the world than Aiden O’Brien and I simply have to be with his charge who I think will be even more suited by better ground and this flatter track.

4 units win Ivanovich Gorbatov @ 5/4 Betfair

 

2.50 Betfred Bowl  – 3 mile 2 furlong

Another corker of a race with some absolutely top notch chasers. Its boring I know but Cue Card is simply a faster chaser than any other in this race. His fall was so unexpected at Cheltenham and he will put that right here.

5 units win Cue Card @ 5/4 Skybet

 

3.25 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle 2 mile 4f

The irony of this race is that the best horses in the race are better over this trip than they were over 2 miles at Cheltenham. My heart says Annie Power will win again. She has gears that the others don’t and she travels so well. My head says something will beat her and it can only be Nichols Canyon or My Tent or Yours. The deciding vote might just be the prices and at 1/2 I cant back Annie so it has to be My Tent or Yours who after 2 years off ran a blinder. So at such a price we have to be with Nicky Henderson’s horse.

2 units e/w My Tent or Yours @ 10/1 Betvictor

 

4.05 Crabbies Foxhunters Chase 2 miles 6f

A tough race because of the pace and of course the Grand National fences. I have put a ring around 3, Current Event who was second last time out to On the Fringe, Major Malarkey who looks like a big run is not far away and Pacha Du Polder who was ridden last time out to get around and may just have slipped under the radar with his new pilot on board..

1 unit e/w Pacha Du Polder @ 7/2 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Major Malarkey @ 20/1 with Skybet

 

4.40 Betfred Red Rum Chase

Its hard to look past Solar Impulse, so convincing was his win at Cheltenham. He travelled really well and won easily, for which he has been penalised. Minella Present looks to be one to keep on the right side of and he has been kept for this rather than rushed for Cheltenham but I like Bright New Dawn. He has got his jumping together and the handicapper says he is the best horse in the race. I think this horse has a touch of class and I want to be with him in this race at what appears to be a big price.

1 unit e/w Bright New Dawn @ 16/1 Betfair

1 unit e/w Minella Present @ 6/1 Coral

 

5.15 Goffs Mares Only Nation Hunt Open Flat Race

Warren Greatrex has some terrific mares, the Nipper being one of them. He will know how good La Bague Au Roi is and they like a punt. Gordon Elliot’s mare, Shattered Love is my other against the field.

2 units e/w La Bague Au Roi @ 9/4 Betfred

1 unit e/w Shattered Love @ 11/1 with Betvictor

 

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