It’s here, the greatest racing festival in the World starts today and each day we will see if we can beat the old enemy and enjoy some of the greatest equine athletes in the world.

1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle 2 mile.

This will be the race that makes bookmakers more nervous than any other. It all revolves around a horse called Min and his trainer Willie Mullins, the man who has won the last 3 renewals of this contest. Min has been the favourite for months and in all reality he may well be a good thing. 2/1 says he isn’t unbeatable but what is going to beat him? I think with Min it’s all about potential, he is a great mover and jumper and the improving ground will bring out the best in him. No excuses, if Min is the real deal he will win. Altior looks the best on what we have seen so far and he certainly has the credentials to win for Nicky Henderson. No one has lowered his colours over obstacles and he looked all class winning at Kempton. The crucial combination of speed and stamina. I believe these two will fight it out but as the ground gets better my dark horse at a big price is Silver Concorde @ 14/1.

1 unit e/w Silver Concorde @ 16/1 with Coral

2 units e/w Min @ 11/4 with Betway – why have they taken this position?

2.10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge

Let’s not waste too much time on this one. If Douvan stands up he win – simple as that. He is probably a stone better than these and whilst I think Vaniteux will beat the rest it might just be worth watching next years Champion Chase winner. If you want to get involved then perhaps look at a market without the favourite

2 units win Vainteux, without the favourite @ 7/4 with Sportingbet

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase

I love this race. Horses you have been backing and watching that are just below the best and either on the way up or just off their best. Horses like Holywell, who won this 2 years ago and who has been rated as high as 163 and beat the mighty Don Cossack at Aintree in 2014. He might be a class above these and Jonjo might have him back to his best. Southfield Theatre for Paul Nichols, Kruzhlinin, who might be massively unexposed and has the services of our Champion Jockey elect on board. What about Double Ross who loves Cheltenham but hasn’t been at his best this year and whose stable is now flying. Carole’s Destrier might have the right credentials for his young trainer who won this last year with the Druids Nephew and whose form looks rock solid. Out Sam is the favourite for Warren Greatrex and with this horse it is all about potential but his only time around here he fell. It was a hurdle and not a chase but horses memories are funny things.

This is a proper betting race and we need to have a good jumping 2 against the field. I really like Theatre Guide. I backed him at Kempton over a trip that didn’t suit on a track that didn’t help and I think today is perfect for this Colin Tizzard trained chaser. BTW this man’s horses just seem to find extra reserves at the moment and we need to get with him. I would have backed Holywell if Jonjo had a winner in the last 14 days – but he hasn’t.

2 units each way Theatre Guide (nap) @ 16/1 with Boylesports

1 unit e/w The Young Master @ 16/1 with Betvictor

3.30 Stan James Champion Hurdle

This is normally the best race all year. Closely followed by the Champion Chase and then the Gold Cup. Its a more even race without Faugheen who would have won but now we have to really work it out. Don’t underestimate The New One, he should have won 2 years ago and was unlucky. He might be past his best though, if he isn’t, he will be right there. My Tent or Yours wont win, Identity Thief might surprise again like he did at Newcastle but Nichols Canyon would appear to have his measure and he in turn might be just below the best on offer. I used like Peace and Co but he seems to be gone in the brain. Maybe this fast pace will really suit him on quicker ground. Its boring but for me its all about Annie Power. I think she is the real deal. When she fell last year she was going so well and I don’t believe Ruby will allow that to happen again. Mares haven’t won this race for 10 years and under normal circumstances she wouldn’t but this is an average field and that is why connections of Lil Rockerfeller paid £20,000 to run. They may well be rewarded.

2 units e/w Annie Power @ 5/2 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Lil Rockerfeller @ 40/1 with Betvictor

4.10 OLBG Mares Hurdle

Another that doesn’t require a huge amount of time. Vroum Vroum Mag wins this race and evens is an amazing price. Don’t mess about bet with your long trousers on. I always belive my eyes and this horse impressed the heck out of me when hacking up at Ascot. Maybe the step up another grade is taken on trust but it was the manner of victory and the strut that got me. Its a big field and there could be trouble in running and jumping problems but on paper she cant be beat. I know the rest and they aren’t as good as her. BTW – stupid name for a horse.

5 units win Vroum Vroum Mag @ 11/10 with Bet 365

4.50 National Hunt Chase

Almost 4 miles with amateur jockeys on board – some of whom aren’t very amateur!!!!. Jamie Codd, Sam Waley Cohen, Katie Walsh and Patrick Mullins are as good as most pro’s. Maybe that’s the angle. That covers Definitly Red for Brian Ellison who is in red hot form  and has a horse who jumps and seems capable of this trip and is only 7. Noble Endeavour, who might be laid out for this by the incredibly shrewd Gordon Elliot, Measureofmydreams, again for Willie Mullins who dispatched Noble Endeavour easily last time they met and Ponte Alexandre, who seems an odd choice but if your dad says this is your ride, don’t argue, he’s good.

Just mayvbe we haven’t mentioned the winner and if I am right its a double on the day for Coilin Tizzard. I liked Native River when it was obvious that heavy at Wethbery didn’t suit and 3 miles at Kempton simply wasn’t far enough. so that’s where I’m heading

1 unit e/w Native River @ 9/1 with Coral

1 unit e/w Measureofmydreams @ 12/1 with William Hill

5.30 Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase.

For me the toughest race on the card. I wont be heavily involved as this is about position in the race, luck in running and natural improvement.

I’m going to side with Charlie Longsdons horse, Killala Quay, who surprised me when winning at at Kempton and who recorded a career best and Aloomono whose trainer thinks this is his best chance, so do punters. I might also have a fiver on Willows Saviour because its the name of our dog!!!

1 unit e/w Killala Quay @ 22/1 with Betvictor

1 unit e/w Aloomono @ 6/1 with Sportingbet

1 uit e/w Willows Saviour @ 9/1 with Sportingbet

You have to enjoy the build up to Cheltenham because its the only way of keeping this meeting going longer. It’s the best horse racing meeting anywhere in the world and even though it is four days it simply goes to quickly for those of us who love our horse racing. So lets start today with our strategy and get some ground rules laid down for the week. Lets at least have a well thought through plan and see if we cant make it pay. As General Montgomery said, “all good battle plans last right up until the first engagement with the enemy – then you have to react”

So here we go – some basic assumptions we are going to take on board that may not be out there in the market place just yet.

1. More favourites have won, proportionately at Cheltenham in the last 10 years than should. So don’t try to be too clever too often. Why? Because the best horses run in the best races on the best ground – when was the last time we had heavy ground for a Festival? Why try to find some hidden handicap snip when the best bets are staring at you.
2. Irish Horses and in particular Willie Mullins horses look a cut above British horses and appear to have greater depth this year. Don’t fight it with misplaced patriotism.
3. This is the first festival I can remember where the great trainers names of Nichols, Henderson, Pipe and King have not one festival “banker”between them – extraordinary.
4. Up and coming UK trainers have some very nice horses but possibly not for the Championship races. They are good at what they do in an ever competitive world, don’t be put off by names like Skelton, Pauling and Longsdon

How doe we use this knowledge and these rules to try to make money – I think like this :

Day 1.

We have a Willie Mullins each way Yankee to include the following horses:

Min

Douvan

Annie Power

Vroum Vroum Mag

I think all four will win on day 1 and we can just cheer them on to the rafters. Bookies will be reeling. Irish will be very drunk. So will I.

 

Day 2.

Back Sprinter Sacre to win the Champion Chase – now @ 9/2 with Sportingbet. Only back him to win. He will win it or finish tailed off. He is the best jumper ever and I don’t believe the same applies to Un De Sceaux, who is talented but has never had to do a parade before racing and I think will boil over because of it and should be laid. If Willie Mullins gets his horse out of that parade – he is a wizard. Sprinter Sacre may only be 90% of the horse he used to be but that will be enough to beat this field.

 

Day 3

Back Kilcooley to win the World Hurdle – massively undervalued in the market. Currently available at 20/1 with Sportingbet and will go even better than we he destroyed them at Wetherby on this better ground. He gets the trip strongly, will love the track and ground and his trainer Charlie Longsdon says he will be hard to keep out of the frame.

 

Day 4

Back Zubyr to win the Triumph hurdle at 5/1 – has pace and stamina – just the ticket and maybe lacks a little experience but his performance at Kempton was very encouraging. They went a right gallop and he finished strongly at the end.

Back Barters Hill @ 3/1 to win the Albert Bartlett – this is my festival nap. He isn’t quick, he just goes a bit faster than all the others and that will do in this race. Ben Pauling has been a revelation this year and this horse has helped him show just how talented he is as a trainer. This victory will crown a stellar year for him

Back Don Cossack at 4/1 to win the Gold Cup. The ground is drying nicely for him now. This is a grinders race and he would have beaten Cue Card in the King George but for a poor 2nd last jump on a track that simply didn’t suit him at all. Two extra furlongs and a hill is perfect for this horse.

And finally. Take all these horses mentioned. Put them all in a series of multiples and sit back and enjoy an outstanding meeting without the pain of going through daily papers, TV programmes and your mate down the pub who hasnt tipped a winner for 2 years and make a HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY – watching the best horse racing anywhere, now nothing is better than that.

We will be putting up our daily race by race guide with two horses in each race on the morning of each day. Look out for those emails.

Good luck and enjoy.

 

 

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RBS Six Nations

Six Nations looks like an English Redemption – but is it?

England were devastated to be knocked out at the group stage in the World cup and the powers that be were swift in their disposal of Coach Stuart Lancaster. Yes, it was an embarrassment to the wealthiest RFU in the world not to qualify to the finals and yes not going through on your home turf was a bitter pill to swallow but against all that England were drawn in the group of death where there was only room for two and things didn’t quite go their way.

Not good enough I hear you say, fair enough but I always liked Lancaster. I thought Lancaster conducted himself extremely well and that he built up a strong unit from the debris of the previous disasters. He had a discipline, pride and humility that was enviable but as the saying goes losers, boozers and Jacuzzi users, we don’t need, so off he goes.

The thing is Eddie Jones is definitely very good. His style of Rugby was such a thrill when we all supported Japan in the World Cup and mostly he is a winner. The ironic part of his success at the weekend, against a rejuvenated Scotland, was that it was achieved with a group of players identical to the group who took the field in the World Cup. A sort of back handed tribute to Lancaster if ever there were one. The difference?  They won this time. Would they have won if the opposition had been Australia, with that performance? – Categorically, No. Scotland made many mistakes and still only lost by 6. Was that performance good enough to now go on to win the Six Nations?  Well in and of itself no but here is the rub.

Currently England are the 5/4 favourites to win the title after their win on Saturday. In theory they should be miles shorter. France looked inept against Italy who have no doubt improved again and Wales and Ireland contrived to take a point each with a 16-16 draw to help England further – or not as the case may be. So why have the bookies left them at this biggish price? Answer, because they weren’t impressed with England but I think you need to look a little further under the surface of Saturdays game and if you do you just might feel a “smirk” coming on.

As the late great Ian Drury said – Reasons to be cheerful  1,2, 3, I think I can make a compelling case as to why we should be very confident about an English victory and if you are a betting person be jumping in to this 5/4 about England winning – and here it is.

Scotland are a lot better team than people think. They will now give anyone a run for their money as they showed in the World Cup. Hogg is a devastating runner and he will score loads of points and make loads of yards in this years event. The fact that he didn’t run riot in this game was because of his team’s persistent handling errors.  The reason they made mistakes is because Englands’ defence was terrific.

England forced errors with their sheer strength (Thank you Mrs Vunipola for your two enormously talented and huge sons) and when they upped their line speed in the second half Scotland ran out of ideas. Is this enough to win a title, maybe, in my opinion defences win titles and England’s is the best. I also think we saw glimpses of some back play that could be devastating and as they gel as a team and are allowed to be more expressive they could produce lots of points.

They also have a Coach who wins and who knew that Saturday was about not losing and nothing else. Yet again he got the job done.

It may not always be pretty but Eddie Jones has the confidence of his team, a determined, newly disciplined Captain, in Dylan Hartley and most importantly the press on his side from game 1. Don’t underestimate the importance of that last point. More than one England Test Cricket team has been undone by the UK press.

So come on – let’s get behind them and lets shout out for the men in white and perhaps for some of us let’s take  profit on them winning as well at 5/4.

 

Our bet : 8 units win England to win the Six Nations @ 5/4 with Sportingbet

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Super 8’s – Leeds vs Castleford

Leeds vs Castleford tonight will be a good game to watch even though in theory Castleford now have little to play for. We showed last week with Hull that pride is very important and Daryl Powells men will be well up to put one over the Rhinos in front of their home crowd at Headingley. Its also a vital night for the Rhinos who have lost their last 2 and were hoping a decline this year like last year just simply wouldn’t happen. But it has and they must right the ship with an emphatic display this evening.

The best half back line in Rugby League

Do I expect the Tigers to win tonight, probably not, although that wouldn’t be the biggest shock. Kallum Watkins returns for the Rhinos as the best centre in the game and Rob Burrows will help in the half back position where Leeds have missed Aiton.  These are two important additions to the Leeds machine. Castleford are back to full strength barring the “Carney” problem but for me they just lack that finishing power now and it is too easy for teams to defend against their likely scoring targets.

The Catalan (how frustrating have they been) pasting last week hurt Leeds and I expect their players ears to be ringing from Coach McDermott, so tipping an upset would be ambitious. For me its all about the handicap line and how this is set by bookies. Castleford have little lose and will throw the ball around and in doing so will create chances to score and will also leave gaps. This style of game also suits Leeds who really need to make a statement tonight and I think they will. I think we can find two ways in to this game and our bets are as follows ;

4 units @ 10/11 over 54.5 total points with Sportingbet

 

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Rugby World Cup 2015 Preview

 

Its time to to look at just whose hands are going to be on the Webb Ellis Trophy. The most sought after cup in Rugby.

 

This promises to be six outstanding weeks of Rugby football and its right here on our doorstep. There are no easy games anymore and the days of New Zealand putting over 100 points past Japan are well gone. Teams are so much better organised and whilst the minnows haven’t got the class of the top 10 they lack nothing in both fitness and desire to succeed and they will create some uncomfortable moments for the favourites.

Clearly the top tier of World Rugby features Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, England, France, Wales and Ireland but just below them Italy, Argentina, Scotland, Samoa and Fiji, are more than capable of beating any of those top teams if they have a slightly off day and at some stage in this tournament they will.

There is no doubting that Pool A with England, Wales, Australia, Fiji and Uruguay is this tournaments “Group of Death” and with only 2 teams qualifying for the Quarter finals you simply cant afford a mistake or you will not qualify and sadly one of the top three will not make it through, so who is it going to be. I think England will qualify top. They seem to have the edge over both Wales and Australia in recent matches and Stuart Lancaster’s team whilst feeling the weight of expectation have home games and as we know from Olympic medal tallies that makes a huge difference. A good performance against Fiji in the opener and they will be on their way.  So now it boils down to Wales or Australia for the other qualifying place and again for reasons of another home tie I can’t go against Wales who I think will perform a lot better than bookies think currently.

Pool B sets a different task with South Africa certain to qualify top and then a gaggle of others fighting for the other place. Scotland started to show more at the back end of the Six nations and they might be underestimated by a few but they will need to be at their best to beat Samoa and that’s no given. Japan and the USA will both be physical but I don’t see them causing an upset. It could simply go down to who wins between Scotland and Samoa and with that game at St James’s Park late in the pool fixtures it will be interesting to see how Scotland approach the game against South Africa the week before. They may rest a few to make sure they are at full strength to beat Samoa. I think the strength of Samoa, if they can hold their discipline, could cause an upset in this one but I am concerned at their lack of preparation so reservedly I will go for Scotland to take the final place.

New Zealand are everyone’s favourite for this event and rightly so. Pool C is at their mercy and whilst they can probably take it easy and still qualify they could take a pounding physically from the Pumas, if it is in their interest to do so, who played exceptionally well in the recent Southern Hemisphere Fixtures. They should both qualify at the expense of Tonga, Georgia and Namibia in what is a fairly lack lustre group. This highlights the need for seedings in the group stages.

Pool D sets a similar challenge to Pool A with France, Ireland and Italy all lining up against each other and the minor places being played for by Canada and Romania. Italy are capable and have beaten both France and Ireland in recent times and if they can stay fit they will cause them problems. Canada have struggled to put away Georgia and others and I cant see them creating an upset so it seems to boil down to what happens between Ireland and France. Sadly this is the last game of the group so it could prove to be tactical. However if one of them has lost a game then it could also be a cracker. For me France are getting better and better and have been overlooked in this competition. They have nothing to lose and no fear of expectation which is exactly when they are at their most dangerous.

In summary it’s not easy to look past the favourites in the groups but they will all have to play well each game to be guaranteed to win. I expect the group qualifiers to be, in the following order.

Pool A

England, Wales

Pool B

South Africa, Scotland

Pool C

New Zealand, Argentina

Pool D

France, Ireland

 

If I am right then the qualifiers look like this

Q1 :  South Africa vs Wales

Q2 : New Zealand vs Ireland

Q3 : France vs Argentina

Q4 : England vs Scotland

 

It’s possible that we could then see England vs France in a Semi Final and that is something that would be a good reward for topping your group for England. Second in Pool A makes life a whole lot tougher.

So our selected bets for the World Cup are

England to win the World Cup, 2 units e/w @ 9/2 with Betway

Scotland to make the quarter finals 4  units win @ 4/6 with Boylesports

Wales to make the quarter finals 4 units win @ 6/4 with Skybet

England to play New Zealand in the final – 2 units win @ 4/1 with Skybet

And if that all seems a little biased towards the Northern Hemisphere and particularly mainland Britain – then so be it – this is where the competition is being played. Embrace it and lets cheer them on in very loud voices.

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Naked Eye Season Bets

Now the Football season is beginning to take shape, The Naked Eye has reviewed some of his season bets!

Here is a review of the current bets we previously tipped.

Crewe regulated from the League 1 Naked Eye tipped @ 5/4 now 2/7

Wycombe to be promoted from League 2 – Naked Eye tipped @ 11/2 now 11/4

 

Sheffield United to win League 1 – Naked Eye tipped @ 11/2 now 21/10

 

Middlesborough to win championship – Naked Eye Tipped E/W @ 7/1 now 10/3

 

Stay up to date on our website, as we provide the best & latest tips for you.

 

 

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Super 8’s Preview – 10-11 September

Thursday : Castleford vs St Helens 8.00pm @ The Jungle

Last week at Leeds, St Helens went away from home and played the best team in the league and won. It was a must win game or they could have disappeared from the competition. Tonight the roles are reversed and that same pressure applies now to Castleford, who at least are at home.

For coach Daryl Powell this seems a desperate time. Disciplinary issues sees their most explosive scoring asset Justin Carney gone from the set-up and to top that off forward Nathan Massey wont play again this season with injury and the same applies to outstanding centre, Jake Webster. On the plus side talisman Captain, Michael Shenton returns, he may be their best player and utility forward Oliver Holmes is back. So whilst they have covered the losses from the team that went out last week, that team wasn’t good enough to beat Huddersfield and I genuinely think that St Helens are a better side than the Giants. Even at home this is a tough assignment for the tigers.

Coach Cunningham names the same side that defeated Leeds and they looked like the earlier season team last week after their consecutive losses in the Super 8’s. I expect it to be very tough for the Saints as Castelford know what they are playing for but I think St Helens have too many guns for them tonight as the Giants did last week.

Our bet : 6 units win St Helens @ 2/5 with Sportingbet 

 

Friday : Wigan vs Hull @ The DWStadium

These games get tougher for the teams out of the top 8. They are now only playing for pride. Whereas for Wigan they have a top four place to play for that can mean facing the lesser team in the semi’s. With a win in this game they are numerically safe and confirmed in the semi’s so they will be keen to have a strong run out at home. They may well rest a few players next week but this week should be a real work out against a side that are tough up front but don’t pose too much of a scoring threat against decent defences.

Its not easy to take a position in this game with Wigan at 1/50 and the handicap at 32 but our interest will be in Hull. No professional team lies down and I think they will find that handicap line insulting to their pride.

Our bet :4 units at Evens Hull +32 with Sportingbet

•  

US Open Tennis – Flushing Meadow 31 Aug

Last years final featuring Maron Cilic and Kei Nishakori wasn’t predicted by many. Even less was Cilic beating Nishakori but at this time of year, in what has been a long season, these things happen. So do we need to be looking way down the betting to find our winner. Maybe but then maybe not.

I thought Novak looked particularly weary playing Roger on Sunday in Cincinatti but that might well have been that Federer was back to his brilliant best and in that form Novak didn’t want to waste energy in the week leading up to the US, running around chasing down the unchasable from a man in sublime nick. Not the normal Novak way, he is, mentally, the strongest sportsman I have ever seen (excepting Ali of course) but this has been a long season and he had an amazing start to the year, a year that might well still prove to be his best yet. Maybe though even Novak is human and he is tired or finally his body wont do what his mind is telling it to do. The mind will be ready next week but is the body. I can’t take 5/4 about him after what we just saw so he is out of the reckoning with us. He does however have the Tiger Woods bounce backability from the 2000’s. Interestingly both he and Roger have only played 18 tournaments this year and Murray has played 23.

Andy Murray has been playing well. In fact better recently than most of  the rest of this season and he also, finally, has the Djokovic scalp to his name rafter what appeared to be a real glass ceiling for him. He also looked a little jaded against Roger in his semi last week and again it might be the same problem, Roger was too good and he was weary after his win the week before but I think he really tried to turn it around and the fight was too great and Rogers class told.

How about Cilic and Nishakori to repeat the dose in 2015. Well Nishakori is in fine form. He beat Cilic in the semi and then Isner in the final to win in Washington and then only fell to a rampant Murray in the Semi’s in  Canada (that’s the best I have seen Murray play for 2 years) Cilic seemed to peak at Wimbledon on the faster surface with a good showing followed by the Semi defeat at the hands of Nishakori in Washington before going out at 32 and 16 in the last two tournaments. For me Kei is resting and ready, Marin might have peaked.

John Isner deserves respect on this surface and he is no doubt the best he has ever been currently and that may not be quite good enough this time. Rafa deserves a mention but its hard to feel he is at the top of his game. He has caused a few some problems but hasnt been a real contender on these quicker surfaces recently. For me he looks too short at 16/1.

Stan Wawrinka seems worthy of a name check and he hasn’t exactly stressed himself too much since his French Open win and his great Semi Final Match at Wimbledon. He was brushed aside by Novak in the Quarters in Ohio but that wont have bothered him too much. He will come out all guns blazing in New York and who knows he might just nick it but 12/1 seems tight and isn’t that attractive.

So who wins, for me its Roger. He just looks in a good place physically and with his game and I think the belief is back. I hope he hasnt peaked a week too early but I don’t think he will be defensive in his chase of this crown and I love watching him play when he is able to attack. His serve looked as good as ever and more particularly his second serve which seemed to have all the fizz I remember. He is a modern day phenomenon and at 9/2 I think he is over priced.

Our two against the field next week

2 units e/w Roger federer at 9/2 with Betway

1 unit e/w Kei Nishakori @ 18/1 with Betfred

 

 

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York – Ebor Meeting – Day 3 Preview

Can we keep up this amazing run. Now up over 34 units in two days and fighting hard.Another fresh set of challenges today and some slightly lesser calibre of horse to work with but a job nonetheless to sort it out and fight on.

 

1.55 Skybet Special Handicap –  Class 2,  1 mile 4 furlongs

The talking horse all season has been Sir Michael Stoute’s, Top Tug, who having produced nothing of note so far, except slow performances, is moved up today to his longest trip yet of 12 furlongs. I can see him staying on in his last race when I fell for the hype and backed him and he just looked slow. Maybe he was always destined for this trip but it didn’t look like it back in May at this track over this trip when he was a plugging on 5th, with the excuse that the ground was a bit quick. It seems to me he has everything in his favour today and if he doesn’t win then who knows where after this. Perhaps the 5/1 favouritism may well be right but I think we need to look elsewhere.  Memorial Day is a good place to start. Unexposed after two good wins, the lastest at 10F and ready to tackle 12 today. Good draw in 10 and if my maths is right about 6lbs well in on what he has achieved so far. The other that seems to have been missed, is a much bigger price, in the shape of Ransom Note. A horse rated 117, 3 years ago as a juvenile and who after a long break because of injury looked to be coming back to some sort of form for trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, after finishing 4th beaten just 1.5l. If he has retained just 80% of his flat ability that would be good enough and I am happy to bet 25/1 today he might have.

My selections:

1 unit e/w Memorial Day @ 8/1 with Betvictor

1 unit e/w Ransom Note @ 25/1 with Betvictor

 

2.30 Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup,  Group 2 – 2 miles 

Another fabulous race this week. The performances of Trip to Paris in winning 2 major 2 mile crowns, Chester and Newcastle, has been astounding and I thought he would win again at Goodwood, which has me questioning why he didn’t? You don’t rule him out lightly though, even though my suspicion is this is one trip to the well too many. Big Orange, his conqueror is such a willing type and seems on the top of his game after that Goodwood victory but I just wonder if we had two horses in this field who have that touch of class that separates them from handicap victories. The defection of Tac Be Boistron who looked to have everything in his favour and has that potent turn of foot that class horses have is disappointing but the second, Clever Cookie who I really don’t think trainer Peter Niven has got to the bottom of yet, despite the fact that he and many others including me absolutely love the horse is where we will put our money today.

Our bet :

2 units e/w Cleve Cookie @ 4/1 with Sportingbet

 

3.05 Skybet City of York  Listed  – 7 furlongs

This is a bit like the Acomb for me. Tough to get a handle on who will like the step up in trip, who is destined for Group stardom and who likes this course. I haven’t had great success in this race but I was very taken by Salateen’s performance when winning here earlier and think he must be considered. Short Squeeze for Hugo Palmer has always been a fancied to be a lot better than this by his trainer but he needs to bring his A game to win this. Tanzeel  for Charles Hills is the type of unexposed 4 yo that could win this race after a good performance  here at York over 6f and for whom 7f seems to be the right place to go and Richard Pankhurst, so impressive in his second start last year at Ascot beating Toscanini over 7f, that a race of this nature seems the very minimum standard he should be contesting. With just natural improvement after what must have been quite an injury to keep him out for 426 days he will take some beating. I have to side with potential in each case. In one case, that this is potentially the right trip and the other that he is now fully fit and achieving his potential of ability.

Our bets :

1 unit e/w Tanzeel @ 12/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Richard Pankhurst @ 7/1 with Sportingbet

 

3.40 Coolmore Nunthorpe, Group 1 –  5 furlongs                     

An outstanding renewal of this race and there is only one horse they are talking about, Acapulco. Why, because you have to go back to 2007 when a 2yo won this race and I remember seeing Kingsgate Native sluice up taking advantage of the massive weight allowance and a freakish build, as well as, with respect, one of the most average field for this race you will have seen, not the calibre of today’s opposition but an achievement nonetheless. Trainer, Wesley Ward has already said that the Royal Ascot winner, is a “monster” and has just developed so much more since Ascot. If that’s true then it might be all over already. However Sole Power, Muthmir, Meccas Angel and Goldream are proven Group 1 winners, better than Kingsgate took on and despite having to give weight they will provide stern opposition. Will they be able to? Will Acapulco after just 2 starts be up to this? These are the questions you will have to feel positively about if you are going to back him. I wanted to be against Acapulco but with the ground at Good to Soft I just can’t find a horse to beat it. On good or faster I would have fancied Sole Power back at 5 but this slower ground doesn’t show him to best effect. It’s not original but Martin Pipe said, weight stops trains and nearly 2 stone is too much to give a good horse so we have to go with the favourite.

3 units e/w Acapulco @ 5/2 with Coral.

 

4.20  Convivial Maiden  – Class 2, 7 furlongs  

Not too much to get our teeth in to in this race but it’s possible the winner is amongst these four. Palmetto Dunes who has produced and RPR of 102 for Dermot Weld already and seems capable of better and for whom this race was undoubtedly pencilled in after his last running. Star of Lombardy who chased home a good horse on debut and will improve for experience and the trip, Perkunas for Brian Meehan, for whom this race, coming just 14 days after his success, looks a bit like, “we’ll have a go” and Beautiful Morning for Luca Cumani, after finishing a good 3rd, running green at Newmarket on debut. That of course ignores Very Talented for Godolphin for whom 7f seemed about right at Goodwood.

My two against the field are

1 unit e/w Star of Lombardy @ 18/1 with Betvictor

1 unit e/w Beautiful Morning  @ 12/1 with Sportingbet

 

4.55 Nationwide Handicap Class 2, 1 mile   

Bit of a lame race to finish with and I am going to concentrate on two only, Rifle Range for Roger Varian, who has a tie up on form with Memorial Day in the first and is drawn 10 and just has the right feel about him. So if that runs well that could be a tip in itself and Talyani for William Haggas who, for trainer Wiliam Haggas, looks a horse on the upgrade and were it not for the draw of 20 I would be quite bullish about.

1 unit e/w Rifle Range @ 9/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w  Talyani @ 5/1 with Sportingbet

 

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