These games just get better and better. The super 8 format suggest that another St Helens loss, they have lost their opening two games, could see them start to drift out of contention, whereas a win for the Giants might see them fend of the rampant charge of Castlefield and allow them some breathing space in the top 4. I keep talking about intensity of battle and that’s what tonight’s game is. A real humdinger
I expect to see a far more focused St Helens at home and all Keiran Cunningham’s words seem calm and as though this was just a blip and that they are some much better than this, which may well be true. Problem is whilst they have beaten the Giants twice this year the combined winning margin is just 4 points. The latest win at home was an 80th minute drop goal from Luke Walsh, and that was when they were playing well!!!. How much can they put things right in a week and can they raise their game again form earlier in the season as the Giants undoubtedly have.
Like so many of these battles the game is won up front and there is no denying that Alex Walmsley, Masii Masoe, Kyle Amor and Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook are formidable and earlier in the year they ploughed through defensive lines. Latterly, whether they are tiring or teams have worked them out, they seem less effective and the front four for the Giants are no slouches physically with a more an appropriate match up through Crabtree, Huby, Kopczak and Smith. Both sets of forwards love to off load in a tackle and they need to create space for play makers.
I dont know how often the ball will get wide but both teams have incredible finishers on the wings and St Helens will be delighted to see the return of Tommy Makinson. It wont be wide that determines the game though, the forward battle will dictate who wins and I have a sneaking suspicion that war might be won by the Giants and that Danny Brough and Luke Robinson may well get more pickings than Roby and
Don’t let us down Baloo!!
Walsh and that this might just be the difference in a game where kicking will prove to be vital.
I want to be with the Giants tonight as they are too big a price at 7/4 my one concern is that there is something of a perpetual loser about their coach Paul Anderson and he needs to get rid of that “victim” look that he so often carries around. So advisedly we will be backing the Giants. I’m not interested in the four points on offer. lets back them to win.
Our bet 4 units win Huddersfield @ 7/4 with Sportingbet
York – Ebor Meeting, Day 2 Preview
I hope you followed our tips yesterday and the staking plan because if you did then you are nursing a 13 unit profit and with something to play with again today. It doesn’t get any easier today and as yesterdays defeat of Golden Horn by a 50/1 shot shows, they aren’t machines. Six really good races again today with reasons to fancy quite a few on ground described again as Good to Soft. It was wearing yesterday so you need to stay the trip well and yet again well done to Aiden O’Brien in pulling out Gleneagles. He wouldnt have got home and the Balldoyle master has preserved an impeccable record for his stallion. Sad as it was for racing to have the event ruined by weather, that is no-ones fault. Today we fight again – No Spartans die today!!!
1.55 DBS Yearling Stakes Cl2 6 furlongs
Hard to be dogmatic about too much in this race as it has loads of runners all having showed decent form at some stage but on ratings only about 6 should be capable of winning and that’s the problem. They improve so much from one run to the next and its hard to say when the improvement stops or continues. I am looking at four in the race. Excessable for Tim Easterby who ran well 2 back and would take the beating on that run and wasn’t quite as good when beaten by Lathom in the Super Sprint, but that’s a handicap in all but name and he is the type. Orvar might have been overlooked for Richard Hannon. He was only a bit further behind Shalaa at Newmarket and Rantan for David Barron might be capable of a lot better after only two starts, the last a winner. However its hard to ignore Tasleet for William Haggas, whose horses are flying and who has seen winners come from races he has won and was not far behind Shalaa, at Goodwood, who is the years sensation.
2 units e/w Tasleet @ 2/1 Bet 365
1 unit e/w Excessable @ 12/1 Bet 365
2.30 Pinsent Masons, Lowther Stakes Group 2 Fillies 6f
This race revolves around 4 horses in my book. The outstanding potential of Lumiere for Mark Johnston, who was visually so impressive at Newmarket but is quite a skinny price. Easton Angel, who has being crying out for some dig in the ground and now has it, for Michael Dodds, who everyone would love to have a winner (only me if I back it). Besharah who we backed heavily last time out when he won at Ascot on soft ground and again was mighty clever and the one they might have missed, Ashadihan, 2nd at Royal Ascot and put away for this race by trainer Kevin Ryan, unexposed with just the 2 runs. I have a punting saying which is – believe your eyes and for that reason I have to go with Lumiere and Mark Johnston in this race.
2 units win Lumiere @ 15/8 Sportingbet
1 unit e/w Ashadihan @ 7/1 Sportingbet
3.05 Clipper Logistics Handicap Class 2. 1 mile
Love these one mile handicaps. So too does David O’Meara. He just has 8 of the 20 to saddle up in this race this year. So lets take his first. I say He’s No Saint is the best of them on form and potential improvement and the jockey booking of Danny Tudhope would seem to reinforce that view. I also like Penitent who hinted at a return to form last time out at Haydock on ground and a trip that doesn’t show him off to his best – today does. I am in danger of following Hugo Palmers Extremeity over a cliff but anyone who punts knows you would rather lose a few bob backing him than him going in at a huge price – which he will sooner or later. Lastly I think, Your Fired, for Karl Burke ticks all the right boxes in a race with lots of runners ticking lots of boxes. So lets go for those who have most in their favour. A middle draw and scope to improve, that gives me two. (I will also be backing Extremity but you don’t need to, this is my funeral)
1 unit e/w Your Fired @ 7/1 with Sportingbet
1 unit e/w He’s No Saint @ 9/1 Sportingbet
3.40 Darley Yorkshire Oaks – Group 1 1 mile 4f
I heard Arabian Queens owner, Jeff Smith say yesterday that he thought the girls of 2015 were better than the boys and had been for the last 2 years. That may well be the case. Covert Love may well win today as her record is beyond questioning and she has done it now at the highest level. Not much clever about that and of course not a lot of value. She seemed to have the measure of the 2nd and 3rd favourite last time out, although both were gaining close to the line. I am going to row in with Pleaseach for Jim Bolger. I think 12f is her trip and I thought she was given a shocking ride at Royal Ascot, where she should have won. She is a bit of value against the other 3 and I think good enough to win this race. She is also massively over priced if you read Jim Bolgers comments back in June.
2 units e/w Pleaseach @ 8/1 with Bet 365
4.20 Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Listed Stakes 1 mile 4f
I have again put a ring around 4 of these. Jordan Princess who is fancied by quite a few but to me she looks a little exposed. Suffused looked good two back but her progression seems to have halted with defeat last time out. Koora, to me looked mighty good winning at Doncaster when we backed her and Desert Snow has a strong profile for this race. In what has seen just 3 favourites in 10 years win, it is not a race to get carried away with. I dont now if a 3yo or 4yo has more chance so we will have one of each. The unexposed Luca Cumani runner Koora, who I think has loads of scope and the Godolphin 4 year old Desert Snow who has had just one run in 2015 and it was a good third, her best RPR of her career and one that she is bound to improve on again.
1 unit e./w Koora @ 7/1 with Sportingbet
1 unit e/w Desert Snow @ 11/1 Sportingbet
4.55 Eventmasters Fillies Handicap 7 furlongs
Spangled looks one to keep on the right side of with a 10 length victory last time. The handicapper didnt miss her but her RPR suggests she may well still have a bit in hand. Secret Hint seems to be running in to form and may just give them all something to think about after a good placed effort suggesting she has a decent chance at these weights and Mistrusting who has decided to run with a 6lb penatly, and rightly so. I cant ignore the huge figure that Mistrusting ran to last time out and whilst she is favourite we need to be with her. I also thinks there is more to come from Secret Hint and she will also carry our money in the last.
2 units e/w Mistrusting @ 7/2 with Sportingbet
1 unit e/w Secret Hint @ 11/1 with Sportingbet
The Ashes – The 5th Test – Kia Oval
I am always reluctant to get involved in dead rubbers and after having mopped up in the last 2 tests we have no intention of giving back our profits. However this game is a bit different. England have an opportunity to rub the Australian noses in “it” and they don’t get many opportunities to do that. In fact no Ashes series in the UK has ever been won 4-1 by the home team. Conversely a team fighting for its pride and existence has some chance of going back through the front doors to Australian if they win, rather than sneaking round the back if they get beaten again. Don’t underestimate the Australian motivation for this game. So we have too highly motivated teams and that should make for great cricket. If it starts going wrong for England their need to fight will become less and that may tell us enough to get a position for trading during the game.
Anderson doesn’t play again and whilst that is disappointing I do think this wicket will really suit Wood, his replacement, although spinners have always done well with the extra bounce at The Oval and I so hoped they would play Rashid. Australia have got rid of Hazelwood and replaced him with Pat Cummins, that seems harsh on Hazelwood as this wicket will suit bowlers with height and pace. Australian appear to have made their change to the bit that was working OK – their bowling. It’s their batting that has been the problem, although I suspect that may change
Now to the wicket. The covers have been on, the temperature is humid and they tell me its green and hard underneath. This is where all opening batsmen are willing their captains to do just one thing right – and win the toss. If the wicket lives up to its pre-publicity then despite Don Bradman saying 99 times out of 100 you win the toss and bat and on the 100th time you think seriously about bowling and then bat anyway, I suspect you could sell the rights to bowl first in this test for far more than Kia paid to rename the South London venue, maybe even more than the combined amount that Middle Eastern Airlines have paid cumulatively to rename the Stadia of the entirety of Europe, all though that’s going some.
The great thing is that yet again its going to be all about the first hour, as it should be in a Test. Its not that things have changed in this series its simply that opening batsmen no longer have the same mindset about their trade. The proliferation of one day and T20 cricket has meant batsmen are simply playing at far more balls then they need to. At 80 mph plus, delivered from about 7 foot 5 the percentage of balls that will actually hit the stumps is minute and in the old days of the Boycott and Edrich era they and others like them simply didn’t play at any ball that wasn’t going to hit them or their stumps until all the “devilment” had disappeared from both the wicket and the ball. Then they cashed in. Not so Warner, Cook etc. They are always looking to score and for that reason, with very good bowlers, which they are, we get these frenetic first sessions. I expect no different in this test.
That makes the toss crucial. However as I write this I don’t have the benefit of that knowledge so I am going to make a stand and go with Australia. This wicket should suit their bowlers and oddly, their batters, better than ours. Its more like home and Steve Smith will be able to stand back and let the ball bounce, which is what he needs to succeed.For England to succeed their bowlers have to resist the temptation to get the ball bouncing from short of a length. Australians can play short pitched bowling, pitch it up lads. Lets hope Australia don’t suddenly decide, having all series not got forward as much as they should have, to try and rectify that today. If they do they just might get a few up their nose. This is the test to let the ball bounce and it just might prove ideal for the underdogs, yet again in what has been a simply absorbing series that isn’t going to peter out this morning
Our bet 4 units win Australia @ 13/8 with Boylesports
2 units win Steve Smith to be top Australian run scorer @ 7/2 with Boylesports
The Ebor Festival – York, Day 1 Preview
If you have never been to this festival then you need to treat yourself. In my opinion, this is the best in the UK. No poncy toffs, no rip off prices, outstanding catering, great viewing, friendly staff and a beautiful city in which to spend your nights. Its even better if you have backed a few winners and that’s not that easy as it is monstrously competitive racing.
Here’s a tip that cant be beaten. If you can only do one day, do Tuesday. This is the best. So lets see if we can carve this programme up and walk away with a few quid. Couple of provisos on these tips. This is being written the day before racing and with good ground forecast. William Derby, York Supremo says they have had about 8 mils of rain and that should be it before tomorrow. He doesn’t think the going will need changing and they are racing on the sanded bend, which should mean good quality racing ground for tomorrows racing. If he is right then they will all line up. If it keeps raining then there will be massive defections. Bad ground at York is about as bad as it gets for punting. So if it stays good ground and it genuinely is then we are confident about the following.
1.55 Symphony Stakes Class 2 Hcp. 5 furlongs
A super race to start with. In a race where no favourite has won in the six years since it began you couldnt really rule any of them out but we can find some good reasons to be with a few.Four year olds have won the last 2 encounters but I don’t think that is a trend. What does look important is the weights sweet spot with all but one year seeing a horse carrying more than 9 stone. It says we are looking for a touch of class to win this race and that is what I have concentrated on.
My four for starters are Dutch Masterpiece, touched off last time, returning to the form of which he is capable. The explosive Caspian Prince who is starting to look well handicapped on fast ground with his electric pace. Lucky Beggar might just be back on the up and he is running well below old marks and may well be that touch of class, as might be Highland Acclaim.
1 unit e/w Dutch Masterpiece @ 10/1 with Betvictor
2 units e/w Luck Beggar @ 14/1 with Betvictor
2.30 The Tattersalls Acomb Stakes – Group 3 7 Furlongs
Really tough race to get a handle on. I went back through every winner in the last 10 years and found no trend other than they must have recorded an RPR of greater than 84. Fortunately that gets it down to four horses if we can believe those figures so I have put a ring around Adventurous, Lieutenant General, Mohab and Humphrey Bogart. Four horses, trained by Aiden O’Brien, Richard Hannon, Kevin Ryan and Mark Johnston. All trainers are in great nick and its not an easy pick. Adventurous will be better suited by 7f than he was by 6 for Mark Johnston, who had 49 winners in July – 49!!! and Mohab is the juvenile apple of Kevin Ryan’s eye, who went close with the Grey Gatsby in 2013.
1 unit e/w Adventurous @ 7/1 with Betvictor
1 unit e/w Mohab @ 5/1 with Betvictor
3.05 The Great Voltigeur Group 2, 1 mile 4f
Bondi Beach won a 14f Grp 3 recently and if the rain continues and this is a real stamina test then it all plays to his strengths. Giovanni Canoletto looked like being the O’Brien Derby number 1 and hasnt really fired at all this year but this in theory should be an easier assignment. Medrano, for local trainer David Brown is probably better than he has shown and that isn’t bad and Balios ran some good races before a bit of a flat run in France. That leaves Tashaar, who comes out of handicap company, for whom this is a big ask of a horse who is well fancied and Storm the Stars, highly placed in the what was a good derby and has the best form figure so far this year and it is for that reason I think, against this slightly lesser company, he can get the job done for trainer William Haggas, who is in cracking form right now.
4 units e/w Storm the Stars @ 7/2 with Coral
3.40 The Juddamonte International Group 1, 1 mile 2f
The race of the year. In excitement terms this race delivers exactly what was intended. The Derby winner over two furlongs less and the Guineas winner over 2 furlongs more from this years generation plus horses from last year who are amongst the best. Assuming the rain stops, this race will only be bettered by by the Arc and racegoers are in for a treat. We are going to get even more bullish in this race and here is why. The second favourite, Gleneagles, was said by Aiden O’Brien, after the Guineas, to be a miler and would not be considered for the Derby and here they are having a go at 10 furlongs, fair enough and I admire their have a go attitude, even if it is only 2 furlongs further. All credit to them but I think they were right back in May and for that reason Golden Horn, who is the real deal, will win and if you don’t have an account with any of those bookmakers who are offering 4 and 5/1 about this horse then open one now and start accumulating a nest egg of money. Thats the deal.
6 units win Golden Horn @ 8/11 with Skybet
4.20 Fine Equinity Handicap Stakes – Class 2 2 miles
Another cracking race, this time over 2 miles and every time they run over this trip at this track the echoes of Double Trigger run through my mind. These horses regularly run against each other at Chester, Newcastle and Goodwood and now York. Where do we start. I think we need to look for a horse who is just entering in to this years staying races and appears to be on an upward curve. So who does that include. I think we need to concentrate on the rejuvenated Big Thunder- no shock there, he is the favourite. His stablemate, Saved by the Bell who was beaten narrowly and has a pull at the weights that could correct that. Highland Castle, who after a good performance behind Gold Trail, over an inadequate 12 furlongs looks to be primed for this race and possibly has more to offer over 16f than we have seen so far and against what I have said, the admirable Teak who ran a good’un last time out and deserves a win this year. Its tough but we have to have a go in this race, its the law.
1 unit e/w Highland Castle @ 12/1 with Betvictor
1 unit e/w Teak @ 16/1 with Betvictor
Betway Stakes – Nursery Handicap Class 2 6 furlongs
This race has thrown up 33/1 winners and a couple of favs in the last 10 years. Its has had top weights and bottom weights in equal measures, top trainers and lesser known. In short, it’s tough. Lets not get carried away and analyse all of these as there is no easy way to victory. Roaring Forties has done us proud so far. Kassia has been highly tried and could find this more to its liking for in form Mick Channon but the one that excites me the most is Mayfair Lady who blitzed them last time out and that form now looks good. Lets go quietly on this but hopefully.
1 unit e/w Mayfair Lady @ 14/1 with Betvictor
Super League – Super 8’s, Round 2
I said it last week but these Super 8 games are terrific. Last night’s game between Warrington and Castleford was a belter. I know we were on the wrong side of it backing the underdog to win and losing by one point but right up until the final whistle when the Wolves dropped the ball deep in attack I still thought they were going to win. That’s great sport. Tonight’s games are just as good and high drama will come from all of them I’m sure.
Coaching Genius
Leeds vs Wigan
Leeds are rightful favourites given that they are at home tonight. They play an inspiring brand of football that is both exciting and high risk. The ever present Jamie Peacock is so important, as is Cuthbertson who has been a revelation and coach Brian McDermott will really miss the, of the bench strength of Luluia when he finally retires at the end of this season. Those three create space. With their off loads, power running and ability to cut down tackle time they set the foundation for the magicians, Sinfield and Maguire. As opposition forwards get tired they then bring on the fresh but small, incredibly fast feet of Rob Burrows who can open up a defence like no other.
There is one other key Leeds component. Undeniably the best full back in the League – Zak Hardaker. He is a superstar. If it sounds like I am a died in the wool Leeds supporter well I guess that’s sort of true. However not tonight. Wigan have done the double over Leeds this year and there is something about playing Leeds that brings the best out of the Warriors. Ben Flowers returns tonight and that is important as he is a talent, despite his grand final antics last year. Matty Bowen is in the form of his life and despite ageing legs he will compete with Hardaker. Manfredi, Sarginson, Farrel and Charnley are a real handful and talisman Captain, Sean O’Loughlin saves his best for this time of year.
There is talent right across both teams and these two will probably fight out the Grand Final but tonight I am taking the 6 points on offer and going with Wigan.
My bet 4 units win Wigan + 6 points @ Evens with Bet 365.
Huddersfield vs Catalan.
Another cracking game. They should stagger these on Fridays. One kicking off at 6.30 and the other at 8.30. I want to watch them both. This game will be a tough physical encounter and it really does depend on who wants it more and can maintain their discipline. I think it’s safe to say this is knockout Rugby League. Tonight’s loser has nowhere to go in the Super 8’s, probably.
The Giants have had the edge this year with 2 wins and a draw but the last 2 games have only had 2 points between them both home and away, Catalans home record is often discussed and that they are not the same team away from home. That’s true but its not so true in the finals. Last year they beat good teams away from home in the finals and they are a better, stronger unit than in 2014. Sadly injurys have really hit them hard this year but there are signs those key players are coming back with the return of Willie Tonga, Thomas Bosh, Elima and most importantly, perhaps one of the top 5 Stand offs in the world, Todd Carney who has been out nearly all season.
The layers make the Giants a 10 point favourite but I don’t see it that way. So again we will take the points tonight and back the Dragons to win as well at what looks an inflated price.
Our bets : 4 units win Catalan + 10 @ evens with Bet 365 and 2 units win @ 3/1 with Bet 365
St Helens vs Hull
There is 14 points on offer in this game as St Helens are seen as massive favourites. Its not really a betting game this one as it is doubtful Hull have anything to play for and St Helens have everything to play for. If all hopes were alive for both teams I would want to be with Hull +16 as they ran an in form Tigers very close last week and there are times when i think a real physical battle doesn’t suit the St Helens team. If you knew Hull were really up for it then take the 14 on offer.
Castleford Tigers vs Warrington Wolves
Last weekends Super 8’s were terrific and apart from us falling foul of the 6 point handicap line in the Castleford-Hull game, we had it off in all the other games. They were high intensity, quality games of Rugby and I expect no difference this weekend, starting on Thursday with this cracker.
Its obvious isnt it? Castleford at home at the Jungle, in winning form versus Warrington who were thumped by Leeds and have been thinking about Challenge Cup glory while nursing a handful of injuries to top players. Not so fast lightening, there might be more to this.
Mark my words any team without Ben Westwood is weakened immediately but his suspension is now over and he returns rested and fired up. Ryan Atkins also returns this week as does Gary O’Brien and Ben Harrison and Tony Smith is far from panicking after a week one loss, although even he would admit another would be curtains for their 2015 aspirations. He said in the press that it was the best he had seen Leeds play and any team would have struggled, let alone one with a string of key players missing and he fancies it this week. Why wouldnt he, they trounced the Tigers last time out. That was however not the same Tigers team playing at the moment and more will be needed for the Wolves to get the 2 points this week.
Castleford looked strong last week against Hull and they got the job done, even if at times their game management wasn’t brilliant (if you are leading by twelve and have a chance at a drop goal – make it three scores every time). 
They also went to sleep when they got 12 points up and that cant happen against a team who pose so many more scoring threats than Hull and are defensively as good. One or two niggling injuries in the game last week for the Tigers but nothing that will stop Coach Powell from naming the same team this Thursday, although that will still be without Denny Solomona who could be right for Super 8’s round three.
I think the Tigers have a tough assignment and so do the layers. I expected to see a bigger price than 6/5 about Warrington away from home but the odds compilers think the same as we do and aren’t taking any chances. A stronger Wolves side will be a tough nut to crack and I just think Warrington will score too many points for the Tigers who at times looked leaky and soft against a fairly tame Hull attack. Get on early, I expect even more tightening of the Wolves price and they could go off favourites.
Our bet : 6 units win Warrington @ 6/5 with Bet 365
The 2015 PGA Championship
When Pete Dye decided to build a golf course on the shores of Lake Michigan in Wisconsin his aim was to replicate all the great attributes of a links golf course. With over 1000 bunkers on the layout and a huge amount of sand brought in the PGA have fallen in love with this “mock links” and from the first PGA in 2004, the latest in 2010 and now 2015 they need little encouragement to come back here. It is a true test of golf.
What they wont have this weekend is the high winds and rain of St Andrews. The forecast is good with 24-26 degrees expected most days and light winds so it really should suit almost everyone. Martin Kaymer was the last to be successful here and at 50-1 generally you could understand those wanting to be with him. The course clearly suits his game and he was tied 12th for the open at 9 under so majors now hold no fear for him.We might just have a little 1/2 unit e/w saver on him.
Favourite for the event is 2014-15 superstar, Jordan Speith and at 7/1, after his final round 66 on the weekend he seems to be as strong mentally as ever. My question might just be how he can continue to handle this extreme pressure for so long. Tiger did it for quite a few years and we never questioned it but then he seemed to be playing a different game to everyone else. Now they are all playing the same game such is his legacy and for that reason it is so much harder for someone to dominate. The game goes through these periods and Jordan has done incredibly well to do what he has done.Overachieved or a true Superstar? This weekend will add to that arguement.
The 2014 PGA Champion, Rory McIlroy returns this weekend and he quite often “goes well fresh”, its a big ask on the one of the four biggest stages and his odds of 10/1 are not overly appealing. I hope he plays well as the game needs him and when he is hot, no one can live with him. I just dont think it will be this weekend but we will back him before this year is out and he will win.
At really big prices I like the look of Camillo Villegas. He is 250/1 with Betway and that seems way too big. His four rounds last weekend looked more like the player of old and he knows how to both go low and hold it together under pressure. There is always someone leading this event at a big price and whilst he may not get the job done I think he could be up there early allowing me to cash out if a profit comes my way.
I also think Ian Poulter is over priced. He showed for quite a while over the weekend and there was just a hint that the sparkle and confidence were returning to his game. Feared in matchplay by everyone his ball striking looks good and his putting on the way back. If he believes he can win, he can win and 125/1 with Betway looks over priced. Lets hope he really gets fired up.
My big three this week are led by poster boy Rickie Fowler. You know he has a big one in him and sadly we wont get big prices because of that but 25/1 for six places with Sportingbet seems about right. He is a bit like the handicapper who keeps going up for placed efforts, only in this case his price remains lower than you would like given his record. Bookies rarely pay out on the win bet but often on the place. He might put that right this weekend.
Jason Day is another like Fowler. Always up there, often close and competing but not getting the job done. He is a better player now and if his head stays right (vertigo) he can win this weekend. Sadly a few others know that as well and I can only get us 14/1 about him with Skybet with 6 places this weekend.
My final fancy is Henrik Stenson. I do tip him regularly and thats because he is very good. He also looks to be running in to major form at the right time for this event and I couldnt bare not being with him if he went in Over a cliff, some might say but so be it, we punters are like that. He raises his game for the big ones and with the exception of the Open, where on a crowded leader board he was still 5 under even though that was tied 40th, he always finds his way to the top 10. He is 28/1 with Boylesports and we need some of that as well.
it promsies to be a far better PGA than it was a US Open because they are at least not playing on a mickey mouse golf course. I think our tips will give us a strong set of performers and after backing Zach Johnson in the Open and Speith in the Masters our major performance has been good again this year. We could just do with a big priced winner now to really get things going. We might just have the ammunition to do it with this lot.
Our bets
1 unit e/w Camilo Villegas @ 250/1 with Betway
1 unit e/w Ian Poulter @ 125/1 with Betway
1 unit e/w Rickie Fowler @ 25/1 with Sportingbet
1 unit e/w Henrik Stenson @ 28/1 with Boylesports
1 unit e/w Jason Day @ 14/1 with Skybet
1/2 a unit e/w Martin Kaymer @ 55/1 with Sportingbet
Super 8’s, Match 2, Castleford vs Hull
The bookies claimed the spoils last night with an 8 point victory being the handicap line. Now that’s annoying. However we live to fight another day and tonight’s battle is another bone crushing feast. These two side never take a backward step and I expect the heavy physical struggle to take its toll later in the game.
So how do they measure up. On paper you would argue in their latest encounters that the Airlie Birds have the wood over Castleford with two victories and a draw. However Castelford weren’t playing great Rugby then and I think they are now peaking at the right time. Hull have also lost both Gareth Ellis and Leon Pryce. That’s a big hit for any team to take. On the plus side Kirk Yeamen is back.
The forwards will decide this battle, as they so often do. Paul McShane will appreciate the space that his forwards may be able to create and there is no doubting that Castleford like to move the ball around. The question is – do Hull have the point scoring ability.
Home ground advantage is reckoned to be worth about 4 points and the Jungle would fit that brief, so with a 6 point handicap line layers are suggesting that Castleford on neutral ground would be 2 point favourites. There hasn’t been much between these teams of late and I would be reluctant to get involved on the handicap. I do think that Castleford will get their Super 8 campaign of to a winning start and get one of the 5 wins that Daryl Powell thinks they need to qualify for the play-offs
Our Bet : 6 units win Castleford @ 1/2 with Skybet.
Super 8’s – Rugby League, Game 1
The whole concept of the Super 8’s is yet to be proven but what it does mean is that every point counts and for that reason, whilst it’s not knockout rugby league it will be intense and tonight’s game will be no exception.
Teams (with the exception of Warrington) have had a mini break with Wigan not having played since the 23rd July and the Giants since the 26th so bodies will be rested and forwards will be looking to run hard at their opposing numbers, which always makes for exciting matches, handling errors and quick breaks through “bloodied holes”.
There is a massive need to play the ball quickly and dominate both the tackle zone and the advantage line. Attacks trying to get up and play the ball ultra fast and defences trying to stop that happening while their line gets in place. For this reason, sadly, referees will have a big say. My hope is they police the play of the ball sternly at the start of the game and then let it flow. If that’s the case then we are in for a cracker.
Don’t let us down Baloo!!
If the Giants can get that quick play and create space for Brough then his kicking game could create havoc and with a lead their coach Paul Anderson is very good at closing down the game. Brough is the best in Super League when he has time to kick and scheme. The thing is the Warriors know this and they will do everything they can to get to him.
I see the explosive stuff coming from the Giants and the attritionnal stuff coming from Wigan. In the end class may tell out and Wigan could well overhaul the Giants but not by much and for that reason we will take the generous 8 points on offer.
Our Bet 4 units @ Evens Huddersfield + 8 Bet 365
Clarke holds the Key to the 4th Test
England are in the amazing position of being 2-1 up in the Ashes series but yet again they are underdogs going in to the Trent Bridge fixture.
Analysing the performances so far you would say that Australia have looked more threatening at all times and as yet haven’t delivered. Their two pace aces scare the heck out of most batsmen with their bounce, speed and ability to move the ball and for that reason most layers as well. The irony is that everyone believes that Englands best chance of winning is to prepare green bouncy wickets. How can that be right? The funny thing is that in test cricket the saying is bowlers win matches because you have to take 20 wickets to win one. My view is (wicket aside) both sides will take 20 wickets in this test, so there is no advantage, it’s who can accumulate the most runs before that happens – get it?
Surely if the Aussie pace threat is so potent we want flat low wickets dont we? Not so. You have to look not at the bowling but at the batting to find out why this might be true. Englands batsmen arent world beaters, in fact one could argue we are an opening batsmen short as Lyth averages just 13 in this series to date and apart from the last test Bell hadnt made a run in the series. The truth is though we bat deeper and better, man for man on bouncy quick wickets and that is where Clarke comes in to it as the ace.
The Aussie captain recently said that because he wasn’t making runs that the Aussies were playing with 10. Magnanimous as we have come to expect from him but not altogether true. He has a huge influence as Captain and confidence flows through him to his team who are allowed to play their own game because of his surety of place. Finished as a player Captain? Far from it and he will play his role. The big question is, will it be in this test? To me that is what betting in this test is all about. The Clarke Factor. Without his contribution and if the ball swings Australias batting line-up is brittle. Rogers has to work incredibly hard to accumulate runs and he does but it is wearing on him. I dont expect him to succeed in this test. Warner is streaky and if it is a low scoring test his 86 in 65 balls could be a match decider but that’s not test cricket and he is not a test opening bat . Smith will struggle if the ball moves. Only Sobers made that playing back technique work in England and with respect to Sir Gary the old England attack was a lot slower and more wayward than this one, which has been incredibly efficient and disciplined so far, more so than there opposition. That brings us to no 4 – which was Clarke and I expect to be Marsh.(the batsman not the all rounder) – that’s a lot of pressure, as good as he is. Clarke goes to 5, where he averages 60 in test cricket against 20 batting at 4 and then the all rounders who are OK. Does that line-up look flaky to you? Who scares you most? How does ours match up with, Cooke, Bell, Root, 
Butler, Stokes, Ali. To me they look similar and I edge towards Englands batters more because of experience and form and the most importantly the lack of pressure on them to perform. None of them are fighting for their place and again strangely none are under pressure from the English press. Even Captain Cooke seems to have their support currently, fickle as it is.
All credit to Clarke if he can find the form he so desperately needs at a time when his side simply cant afford to fail. He is an extraordinary player but where is your money on that task? Which team can play with freedom and without fear. Oddly, if it is anyone its England not Australia.
It promises to be an exciting fixture. I hope they don’t ruin it with a boring pitch but I think that will be tough given the weather we have had. So despite Jimmy Anderson not playing – if he was England would be my banker, I am going for England. I think they should be 11/10 both with a big priced draw – so given the prices and all I have written above I have to be with England. I do know of course, as any England supporter does, that if England bat and the Aussie bowlers get it in the right place early doors my bet could be over by lunch on Day 1. Thats the excitement of betting. I wouldn’t have it any other way.
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