What a fabulous start to this outstanding festival of flat racing. Ultra competitive, ultra talented horses from all over the globe and of course the most wonderful setting in which to stage this event. Day one has now fewer than 4 group races, a listed race and a great Class 2 handicap for us to sort out. We are of course up for the challenge.

2.30 Queens Anne Stakes – Group 1 – 1 mile

This might be the best race of the week and its just the start. One could argue that the winner of this race takes the title of the Worlds best 1 miler on Turf, although I am sure some Australians would have something to say about that. However with the arrival of South East Asia’s finest, Able Friend, the Hong King star brings some amazing collateral form that boosts that argument. Able Friend has won 12 of 18 races and has only ever been beaten once over a mile. The son of Shamardal goes well on this quick ground and seems ultra consistent. There should be no excuses. Night of Thunder, for Richard Hannon, brings his 2014 Guineas title to the party and this year as a four year old ran a cracker to deny stable mate Toormore in the Lockinge, who also runs in this race. That form also looks rock solid. Esoterique from France won a Group 1 at Deauville on softer ground but looks up against it, the same cant be said for French sensation Solow for Freddy Head. He looked a world beater when winning in Meydan although many crabbed the form because The Grey Gatsby was second over too short a trip. That may be the case but the manner of his victory this year at Longchamp was so impressive.

Its such an exciting race. On the evidence of what I have seen Solow is the best horse over this trip in the race and deserves to win. My problem is that Maxine Guyon simply makes too many mistakes and you cant afford that to happen in a race like this, particularly when you are being asked to take 6/4. For that reason, as much as I want to back Solow I am going with NIght of Thunder at 5/1. He may just improve again and at his best he has the scalp of Kingman to his name. The other factor is that his pilot, James Doyle, just doesnt make mistakes in big races. I dont think he can be out of the first three and if Solow shows his true class and bolts up then so be it.

Our bet 2 units e/w @ 5-1 Night of Thunder with Sportingbet

3.05 The Coventry Stakes – Group 2 for 2yo 6 furlongs

13 of the 18 runners won last time out and 11 of those have run less than three times in their career. They are obviously all talented. The tricky part is understanding which of them is going to improve the most or is the bench mark set by Buratino, who has run 5 times and recorded his best run when bolting up at Epsom going to prove too much to conquer, should he improve again. Sic favourites in the lats 10 runnings have won this race and only one horse bigger than 11/2 has won during that time. So lets concentrate on all those who in the pre race betting are currently single figures in the betting and that is only 5 horses. The first is Round Two for Jim Bolger who has trained the winner of this race and at 2/1 is the likely favourite. My problem with this horse is that he is bred to get a lot further and whilst his listed win at the Curragh was a good performance I just think on this ground he could be caught out be a horse with a quicker profile. Finnegan fits that bil for Wesley Ward who brings him over from America but its hard to know what you get with a 2yo who won a 3 runner race at Pimlico to get off the mark. Clearly he was set up for this race but he may not be the stable star and it might all be a bit much for him. Air Force Blue for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore also fits the profile and given that this partnership have won almost every big race going this year for juveniles then its likely he will run a big race. His neck victory at The Curragh may not look much but the second then won by 4 lengths next time out. War Department for William Haggas is fancied by many as he dotted up at Leicester but the second hasn’t helped that form line. That leaves us with Buratino who was to my eye so impressive at Epsom. He seemed to really click and I think his maturity will stand him in good stead for this race. They will have been tempted to aim higher but this looks well within his grasp again.

Our bet : 1 unit e/w Buratino @ 8/1 with Sportingbet

3.40 The Kings Stand Group 1 – 5 furlongs

What a great race this is over the flying 5 furlongs. The amazing Sole Power has won this the last 2 years and comes here a worthy favourite. It may sound odd but I think at 8 years of age his legs will start going a little slower and this might just be beyond him. So at 7/2 we will swerve this sensation. Muthmir brings a win at Chantilly to the reckoning last time out and my concern is that like Meccas Angel, who also won at Longchamp last time out it was on good to soft ground and the forecast suggests that wont be the going to help these two. Goldream for Robert Cowell comes in to the reckoning on his win here last year but I dont understand why he faded so fast when disputing the lead at Haydock recently. In the same race G Force looked unlucky and Pat Smullen takes the ride on him for David O’meara. He looks a lot longer price that he should be and looks a bit of value. I also think bookies have underestimated the ability of the Australian sprinter Shamal Wind, who was described as winning the 5.5f Group 1 at Caulfied a “shade cosily” – in a group 1!!!.

Our two against the field in a race I cant wait to start are

1 unit e/w G Force @ 14/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Shamal Wind @ 8/1 with Sportingbet

4.20 The St James Palace Stakes Group 1 – 1 mile

Favourites have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race and it will be a surprise to many of the Aiden Obrien, 2015 2000 Guineas winner both here and in Ireland doesnt make it 9 out of 11. He is a best priced 8-13 at the moment and i genuinely think he will go off at 1-2 and win. Make Believe looks a good horse, having won his French equivalent but he hasnt produced figures as good as Gleneagles yet, who knows he may and if there is an upset then it might be that Make believe makes the pace under French magician, Olivier Peslier and Ryan Moore just doesnt get to him. Make Believe has to improve about another stone to win on merit but with tactics and a little more improvement, as he has only run 4 times, you could make a case. Either way he wont be outside the first 2 so each way seems the way to play him. Belardo got close at The Curragh, to the favourite but I think that was slightly flattering as Ryan Moore came from a long way back and had all the momentum. I expect the favourite to win but lets see if we can get him beat.

Our Bet : 2 units e/w Make Believe @ 100-30 with Sportingbet.

5.00 The Ascot Stakes Class 2 Handicap 2 miles 4 Furlongs

8 of the last 10 runnings of this race have been won by a jumps trainer in what is a notoriusly tough handicap. Nothing as short as 5/1 has won and that is an indication of the competitiveness of this race. In fact no favourite has won in the last 10 years. I have put a ring around 4 horses all who fit the profile. Fun Mac (7/1) for Hughie Morrison and Chester Racecourse President, Bobby McAlpine. Digeanta (14-1) for Willie Mullins and Pat Smullen. Broxbourne (14-1) for Nicky Henderson and finally Shwaiman (16-1) for William Jarvis with Frankie in the saddle.

I am going to opt for the last named as I think having run in the Gold Cup where he performed credibly he could just have a bit more class than the others. In a tricky race –

Our bet is :

1 unit e/w Shwaiman @ 16/1 with Bet 365

1 unit e/w Digeanta @ 14/1 with Bet 365

5.35 The Windsor Castle Stakes – Listed Race 5 furlongs

Another end of day toughie, as we try to work out which 2 years olds have the ability to handle a huge field, massive amounts of noise and a wide open racetrack after limited experience. I wont pretend this is easy and if you need to have a bet take a look at these 4 horses. Washington DC for Aiden O’Brien, who has had the benefit of 3 runs, the last of which was the best, finishing just 2 lengths behind Round Two who runs in the Coventry earlier in the card as the favourite. Steady Pace, who didnt run to his best when beaten 6 lengths by King of Rooks but was very good on debut. Soapy Aitken who is unbeaten in his two runs for Clive Cox and Opal Tiara who was beaten by Easton Angel, who lines up in the Queen Mary, by just a length at Beverley

Our bet :

1 unit e/w Washington DC @ 5/1 with Sportingbet

1 unit e/w Steady Pace @ 9/1 with Skybet

England vs New Zealand – The Lords Test

There is nothing like the first day of a test at Lords and under normal circumstances the 1st day of a Lords test against New Zealand wouldnt be one to get my pulse racing. But this is different.

For a start New Zealand are an exciting team to watch play cricket. There I said it! Moreover they dont just play exciting cricket, they generally boss teams around these days with a real belief in their ability.

Their batting is led by Brendan McCallum and whilst he sometimes falls victim to his own aggression his recent text exploits with hundreds and double hundreds and close to a 100 strike rate means that when he scores well his team have loads of time to bowl people out. But they are by no means a one man batting line-up. Kane Williamson has few flaws at the top level in his game and the return to form of Martin Guptill means they have another capable of big scores. Ross Taylor gives them 4 in the top 6 with outstanding Test credentials.

Now find me 4 in the England line-up that can boast the same recent form or pedigree. Maybe Root but I am not convinced by Ballance against the moving ball and after that well some are capable but hardly compelling.

However as we all know bowlers win test matches so how does that head to head look. For a start, Tim Soutthee and Trent Boult move the ball and conditions on Thursday will favour that style of bowling – if its not too cold.

So does Anderson I hear you say and I agree but when it comes to the others right now they have no idea where its going. Ability, yes, temperament, questionable, consistency – lacking.

Assuming Mick Hunt, the head groundsman has prepared a quick bouncy wicket then we could be in for a treat. Fast run scoring and lots of wickets.

Who does that favour? Well, only one team for me – The Black Caps.

They are a best priced 9-4 with Boylesports and must be backed to win in a market where the draw is an irrelevance.

Our bet 4 units win New Zealand @ 9-4 with Boylesports

The French Open – 2015

Roland Garros – The Greatest Stage on clay

Here it is, the second major of the year. A tournament dominated by a certain Rafa Nadal in the past but now an indication perhaps, of a time of change. Djokovic, Murray, Nishikori and the whole field look to take the crown from the Spaniard. But the quality will be high, and the odds will be good which is what we’re interested in.

It is hard to look away from those favoured in the betting and we will find some daily bets going forward but here are our pre-tournament bets. Lets see if we can continue our winning run.

You will note – no Djokovic in our betting. The reason for that is that he has never won here before and as much as he will be ultra determined to add this elusive title to his belt at the best priced 10-11 he is just no value. We also haven’t put up standing dish Rafa Nadal – simply because he just isn’t as good as he used to be, as shown by Murray’s demolition of him last weekend. This tournament is all about coping with both the surface and dealing with the incredible physical demands and whilst he is in the form of his life that’s what worries me most about Murray adding another major. However he just might get a dream run through so lets see.

Andy Murray

The Scot battered Rafa Nadal last week as for probably the first time ever he is one of the front-runners for the French Open title. If he maintains his current form he can be considered a serious contender but Andy is not the most reliable to put your money on. Mistakes happen again and again with Andy but he can make the final here and show he has matured.

Kei Nishikori

The Japanese based player has had one of the fastest climbs into superstar territory and he is improving in ability an confidence every day. He has the endurance of 1000 men but his serve is the problem. He is the dark horse and with his stamina he will be able to endure the searing temperatures in Paris and will thrive on the fact that this tournament is two weeks and other players will tire.

Nick Kyrgios

With his superb win over world number 2, Roger Federer, on clay in Madrid last week he gets a seeding for the first time in a Major. He thrives on this surface and his game is in a good place right now. I expect him to take out one or two big names before getting through to the semis. He has a lot of game and a liking for this surface as he stands happily back in the court. He is a name for the future and it may start here in France. He is definitely overpriced with Skybet.

Our Tips

Murray 2 units e/w @ 8/1 with Skybet

Nishikori 2 units e/w @ 14/1 with Skybet

Kyrgios 1 unit e/w @ 150-1 with Skybet

Mutua Madrid Open 2015

The Best are Back in Town

In Madrid the best players in the world are back all in one tournament following a few smaller competitions, but the best thing is- Djokovic isn’t playing which means that anyone can win it. Again preparation for Roland Garros is the most important thing to take from this tournament but it would give any player great confidence to take home the silverware.

Rafa Nadal

Last year’s champion has had a poor start to his clay season experiencing lots of shocks and no titles but he can bounce back here with a win. In a crowded side of the draw featuring the likes of Federer, Wawrinka and Dimitrov he will have to play very well, but I expect him to at least get to the final.

Kei Nishikori

Kei has had a very good season and is showing signs that he is capable to fight amongst the world’s elite. After a title win in Barcelona, where we tipped him up, he will be brimming with confidence and this guy is a contender not just for this tournament but for the French Open as well. He will be too good for his easy half of the draw and should at least reach the final. He reached the final last year and should do it again.

Our Tips

Rafa Nadal 3 units e/w @ 7-1 with Sportingbet

Nishikori 3 units e/w @ 4-1 with Sportingbet

Tennis Tips by Rory Crowe

BMW Open – Munich ATP Tour

Gearing up for France in the BMW

In tennis, especially for the top players, every tournament seems to be a case of gearing up for the next major and next on the horizon is Roland Garros. Novak and Nadal are the two clear favourites for Paris. It will be difficult to break past these two great players but these tournaments will show us who can do it. The tennis will be as high-quality and exciting as ever and without some big names a chance for others to shine before the showdown in Paris.

Andy Murray

The Scot had a very respectable run to the final of the Australian Open only to be demolished by Djokovic. Andy has clearly been hurting from this and is without a title win this calendar year. This is his shot to get back into form and back in with a chance of winning Roland Garros which he has never really been close to winning. Clay success has eluded the Brit, but his quality should be too good for this field.

Roberto Bautista Agut

It is strange to tip two players from the same side of the draw to reach the final as it is impossible, so you may be wondering why is Bautista Agut here? The answer is, insurance. Murray is not amazingly strong on clay and there is a reasonable chance he could be knocked out in a shock result. Murray should make it through but this is a just in case bet and Roberto loves this surface.

Gael Monfils

Ahh, the enigmatic Frenchman who has been in terrific form this year and has made countless semi-finals and finals. He has a lot of quality and a very favourable draw seeded 2^nd. Whether he could beat Murray is a doubt, but Monfils loves clay and will have a good tournament. Expect a final spot from the free flowing french ace.

Our Tips:

Murray 4 units to win @ 7/4 with Betvictor

Bautista Agut 1 unit e/w @ 6/1 with Betvictor

Gael Monfils 3 units e/w @ 11/2 with Betvictor

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

Rory Crowe found us another winner last week in Monaco to make it four winners from 5 tournaments in 2015. An amazing record. Here are his views on this weeks dust up in Barcelona.

As the clay season gets well under way, the hard hitting, aggressive players will take a step back as the base line dominators become the favourites. Endurance is key in the searing temperatures. A tournament without Djokovic, as is this one, means unpredictability, which we all love and also means some better prices available if we can find the winner again. So where to look in the cauldron of Barcelona. Unsurprisingly some home ground support will help and for that reason our first tip is:-

Rafael Nadal

A disappointing loss in the semi-final of the Monte Carlo Masters meant he missed out on his first clay title of the season, something he will be smarting over. But when clay is mentioned the Spaniard is better than anyone else including the Serb when he is on form. Nadal showed signs in France of getting back to his best and we hope that he will start producing his best again without injury concerns because he is a joy to watch. He is the best player under these conditions in this tournament and he should win.

Kei Nishikori

The up and coming star will look to retain his title in Barcelona but remember he won that with an injured Nadal out of the way – can he do it again this year with the home town favourite back in good nick? He is a not yet a great player but is getting there and we should be looking at a final appearance here with a favourable draw. It will be difficult but the best player in Asia should manage it as he loves these base line dominated matches and seems to have an abundance of stamina and an iron will in a fight. Surely great traits to be successful under these conditions.

Our Tips

8 units Nadal win @ 5/4 with Betvictor

2 units e/w Nishikori @ 7/2 with Betvictor

Tips by Rory Crowe

Monte Carlo Rolex Masters

Djokovic’s Dynasty

Novak Djokovic has become the undisputed best player in the world and will beat anyone he comes up against, at least that’s how it looks for now. Just like in the late nineties when Tiger Woods suddenly emerged and then dominated. The rest all look to be the ones to cause the shock even players like Federer and Nadal are up against it and Murray has so many mental scars from the Serb that it isn’t even a betting proposition and he is one of the five best in the world – such is his dominance. But Djokovic’s dynasty will come to an end at some time, this is tennis after all. But who will do it and when? I certainly don’t think it will be this week but lets look for some clues each week.

Novak Djokovic

The strong favourite and rightly so, he is very close to becoming one of the best players to have ever graced the game. This year he has been sublime and we expect him to carry through his form in Monte-Carlo. Rafa Nadal will prove stern opposition but he is not quite at the Serb’s level and he should be victorious. No surprise there but sometimes there is no point fighting it.

Roger Federer

He will be delighted he is not in the same side of the draw as Djokovic and so should be able to make his fifth final, but defeat in the final for the fifth time running in Monte-Carlo would be tough to swallow for the Swiss. Roger could win it but he is getting to an age where it’s difficult to last a full tournament. Expect a final spot but nothing more.

Milos Raonic

It may be a surprise to see the Canadian here but he is in with a shot for a final spot. His odds are ridiculously long for a title but this guy is a good player. At no.6 in the world he will be most likely facing a tired Roger Federer in the semis if he beats Berdych. Federer is very classy but it’s worth putting money on Raonic purely for the odds.

Our bet

8 units win @ 6/4 with Sportingbet – Novak Djokovic

1 unit e/w Milos Raonic @ 50/1 with Sportingbet

Crabbies Grand National – The Big One – Day 3 Preview

Crabbies Grand National Meeting – Day 3

Welcome Ladies and Gentlemen to the best horse race in the world. The race that is seen all over the world, the race that everyone stops to see. Today a piece of history will be made and every year at this great race there is always an incredible story.

Dr Richard Newlands, the trainer of last years winner – with only 21 horses in training, the aborted National, those famous words of Mick Fitzgerald, who said when he was the winning jockey, “this is better than sex” and today I expect the biggest headline yet but I will reveal all later.

We will try to find you 2 or 3 in each race that should give a decent run for your money and allow you to get a good shout in, because that’s the best part of racing. So here we go: –

Race 1

The first race is due off at 1.30 it’s the aptly named, “World Famous Just Eat Mersey, Novices Hurdle over 2mile 4 furlongs.

As they all race of the same mark in this race I am looking for the highest rated horses and an unexposed horse with loads of potential and I have got that down to 4 horses. Parlour Games and Nichols Canyon are the two best on form and will be in contention, the two unexposed horses for me are Three Musketeers, who if he can handle the big field will compete and Days of Heaven who looks a typical Nicky Henderson recruit.

1 unit e/w Parlour Games @ 7/2 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Days of Heaven @ 6/1 with Bet Victor

Race 2

Doom Bar Maghull Novices Chase over 2 miles

Not quite so difficult this one. Gods Own is the favourite and rightly so as he has beaten Novices and Grade 1 horses. Traffic Fluide was an easy 10 lengths winner and may be an improver and from Ireland, Henry De Bromhead knows a thing or two about 2 mile chasers and his charge Sizing Granite looks to be a class act.

I don’t think they can beat Gods Own if he is at his best but those three will fight this one out.

3 units win Gods Own @ 2/1 with Skybet

Race 3

Silver Cross Stayers Hurdle

Cole Harden was far too good for some of these when they met at Cheltenham and if he is in the same mood they won’t beat him today. Everyone knows that so there is no point fighting it. However they are not machines and 3 miles hurdling takes something out of a horse so let’s looks at a couple of alternatives. I still don’t think we have seen the best of Un Temps Pour Tout, who wears blinkers for the first time today and he has loads of talent. I also think that Blue Fashion wasn’t suited by Cheltenham and there is more in the tank there but my big priced shock winner might well be Crack Away Jack. Two years ago he was top class and after getting injured and off for a long time came back with an encouraging third having travelled really well. He could be spot on today and if the favourite doesn’t win maybe he could be the one at a big price each way.

3 units win Cole Harden @ 11/4 with Skybet

1 unit e/w Crack Away Jack @ 50/1 with Skybet

Race 4

Betfred Handicap Chase

This is not a very inspiring race and I won’t take too long on this, suffice to say you couldn’t predict any horse with any confidence as they aren’t a great lot. If I had to have a bet I might back Edgardo Sol as he could be back in form and he did at least compete well in the past at this level.

1 unit e/w Edgardo Sol @ 11/1 with Boylesports

First Lieutenant – History in the making with Nina Carberry

Race 5

The Crabbies Grand National

I could talk for ages about this incredible race. However you don’t just need to go through all 40 horses, which I have done, you don’t just need to know if they are capable of winning, you also need a lot of luck just to get around the course. So these are my four against the field. I suggest you have a small each way on all four and then you might get that great feeling of cheering yours on as they pass the Melling road and head to the line. It is simply great. My four are : –

1 unit e/w First Lieutenant @ 20/1 with Skybet who is 17lbs below his best mark in this race and is being ridden by Nina Carberry and I fully expect Nina to be crowned the first Female Jockey to win the Grand National – and how fitting would that be seeing Judy and Nina standing with the Cup. History made today as I suggested earlier

My second horse is

1 unit e/w Soll @ 20/1 with Boylesports for David Pipe. He needs a stamina test and he was a little unlucky last year when going well over these fences to be brought down.

My third horse is

1 unit e/w Rocky Creek @ 10/1 with Boylesports who was so impressive at Kempton and on his day could be well capable of winning this race. He looks primed for this

Balthazar King – What a horse

And my final horse is

1 unit e/w Balthazar King @ 12/1 with Boylesports – he won the Cross Country Race – fresh, last year and then came here and nearly won the national. This year his trainer Phillip Hobbs has kept him fresh for this race.

It looks like being a fabulous race.

5.10

One Stop Energy Handicap Hurdle for Conditional and Amateur Jockeys

Always tough to bring the card back up after the National but this race is so important to our up and coming jockeys and they are all so good these days.

I fancy three in this race

One for the Guvernor 1 unit e/w @ 4/1 with Sportingbet – For Nicky Henderson, who is an improver and I think was laid out for this race.

Cinders and Ashes 1 unit e/w @ 16/1 with Sportingbet whose comeback run was full of promise after a long layoff with injury and when at his best competed in the Champion Hurdle

And I have a soft spot for Ruler of All @ 40/1 with Sportingbet who comes from a small stable with only 9 horses, is trained by the Dad and ridden by the Son. He won so well at Bangor recently and is carrying a very light weight and who knows he might be good enough.

5.40 The Pinsent Motors Mares Bumper

The toughest race of all to wind up the meeting. No fences or flights to jump just young girl horses who are all unexposed. As a stab in the dark my two against the field would be

1 unit e/w Sea Pride for Sir Mark Prescott @ 20/1 with Sportingbet and

1 unit e/w Whistle Dixie for Gordon Elliott @ 7/2 with Sportingbet

Well that’s my predictions for the card. I hope you have the most wonderful day and that you all back loads of winners.

The Crabbies Grand National – Day 2 Preview

Our Day 1 Nap goes in and shows good profits

We made a seven unit profit yesterday on our advised tips on line and a small profit if we had been betting in every race with our preview. Most of that was down to our nap Silviniaco Conti going in and he continues to pay dividends if you pick the right races. So on to day two. Never easy when so many good horse line up but for that reason you get some good prices.

Here is today’s selections

1.40 As competitive as it gets as you would expect from a top grade handicap. Records show that light weighted horses have had the edge and we think we have found a lurker here. Snakes Eyes was impressive two back when winning a good race and travelled supremely well when looking like the winner in Ireland only to be done for a turn of foot over 2 miles. An extra 4 furlongs could be the answer and the price of 16-1 is attractive.

Snake Eyes – 1 units e/w @ 16/1 with Sportingbet

Glingerburn – what price for the Champion Hurdle in 2016 after today?

2.15 We always look for value in our selections and that isn’t always a big priced horse. In this case if you can get 15/8 with Sportingbet about Glingerburn then you simply have to lump on. I think he is an even money chance in this race when you consider he is unbeaten and in his last race he gave a thrashing to Bristol De Mai who was third yesterday in a better race than this. Go on be brave.

Glingerburn – 5 units win @ 15/8 with Sportingbet Our Nap today

2.50 Its possible that Saphir Du Rheu could be a class above these but my fear is how quickly the fences come on you on the back side and I just don’t have the confidence to take a short price about a successful transition to this code. I would rather be with his stable mate at a longer price, who I think needs this longer journey and jumps well, that being Irish Saint. Who knows, we may see a superstar today if the favourite wins but I think we wont be far away in a place at worst.

Irish Saint 1 unit e/w @ 6/1 with Skybet

Cue Card – the best jumper in the field

3.25 What a difficult race. Reasons to say why the first 6 in the betting should win and afterwards they could all look huge prices. This race will be won by the horse who jumps best because that’s all that lets them down. The extra four furlongs may see them go a little slower, which will help but the quicker ground might well cancel that out. I am torn between four, Sire De Grugy, last years Queen Mother winner and Balder Success. Both are capable of beating Champagne Fever, who could also have a going day and if jockeys let Ruby get in to rhythm in front without a chalenge then he will win. Surely they wont let him steal this race as well!!! My final selection is Cue Card – who may just be better than all of them if he is right after his break. He goes well fresh and has pace. I am going to take a chance with Colin Tizzards mount as there is something about the jumping of the other three that doesnt stack up and that doesnt apply to our selection

Cue Card – 2 units e/w @ 7/1 with Sportingbet

4.05 A really tough handicap with again luck massively coming in to play. It wasn’t on the side of our selection when he ran last time over these fences, being brought down at the Canal Turn but lets hope for better today.

Standing Ovation 1 unit e/w @ 14/1 with Bet Victor

4.40 I nearly put this horse up as a nap. He ran a blinder in a better race than this at Cheltenham and may well have won but for a howler two out. He still ran on to take third and I think this trip will be ideal.

Vyta Du Roc – 2 units e/w @ 4/1 with Skybet

5.15 Hard to be dogmatic about any of these in the bumper but Persian Delight looks very useful and being related to a festival bumper winner both the good ground and the trip should be ideal

1 unit e/w @ 4/1 with Boylesports

The 2015 Crabbies Grand National

We found the winner in 2014 using a set of rules we have developed over the years. Given that these rules have worked in three of the last 5 years and that Pineau De Re was a 33/1 winner last year I cant think of any good reason to abandon these principles now. So hear they are

1. We need a horse aged between 9-12. That only rules out 12 of the 40. However we now have it down to 28.

.2. We need a horse rated officially between 136-157 and this doesn’t take many out because those rated below 136 I don’t think will get in to this years race and at the top end there is only two, Lord Windermere (2014 Gold Cup Winner) and Many Clouds, who has had a huge year in 2014-15 – so that gets it down to 26.

3. We want a horse who has won over 3 miles and beyond in it’s career. Believe me they go a good pace in this race now and the days of a 2 mile 4 furlong horse winning this race are well gone – they just don’t get home at this pace. Most trainers know this and there aren’t many who haven’t won over 3 miles. So that doesn’t get many out of the frame but it does get six out of the reckoning.

4. We need some class to win this race so we want a horse who has won a race worth more than £13,000 and that thins a few more out of the equation getting us down to double figures.

5. We are also looking for a horse who has had a run over hurdles during the year as well. As odd as it sounds, amazingly 8 of the last ten years winners all did this in the year they won. Not that many have but you need to prick your ears up when you find one – and we have.

6. There is a biggish figure that suggests that running at Cheltenham is not ideal preparation for this race either, but its an extra week this year so lets not be too dogmatic about that and Balthazar King ran 2nd last year, out of his skin, after the Cross Country race at Cheltenham. However it is something to consider and its better if your final choice hasn’t run within 30 days.

So using the above and looking for best fits this is what our short list looks like at the moment and we will run the rule over it some more, using the above criteria to see who fits best to come up with our final three.

Our short list includes:

Last years winner of course, Pineau De Re. He seems almost as good as last year on his figures and there is no doubting his trainer knows what makes him tick. Don’t underestimate the value of course success, although I worry about how much the grueling run of success in this race scars a horse, which only goes to show what a phenomenon Red Rum was.

Balthazar King has to be considered. Would he have won if he hadnt run and won the Cross Country Race at Cheltenham just 24 days earlier? We might find out this year as he runs fresh (off for 146 days). We know he can do it fresh because he had no prep run before winning at Cheltenham in 2014.

Rocky Creek – young and talented

Rocky Creek – looked a sensation when winning in February at Kempton and when things fall right for him he may have the touch of class you need to win this race. His trainer certainly believes he has a winner on his hands and it could be that he is well handicapped as an improving horse with not many miles on the clock.

Soll – The Pipe family haven’t had a huge amount of success in the National but Soll looks the type. Light weight, won over more than 3 miles on this type of ground, good jumper and an improving horse with few miles on the clock. His jockey Tom Scudamore is also extremely talented and thoughtful.

First Lieutenant – Touch of class

The Irish challenge would seem to come from First Lieutenant. Lets look at him. In anything other than the national he would look thrown in. A handicap, where he comes in on a mark of 153, having won a group 1 and run to a mark of 170. He ran in a hurdles race last time out and satisifies every other criteria. He also has that touch of class and has the services of an incredibly talented jockey, Nina Carberry, who won around these fences on Thursday.

So who do we plump for in a race where you don’t just have to find a likely winner but you have to have a huge dollop of luck just to get round. Well we have made our decision and it looks like this :-

Soll – Ready to Roll

1. First Lieutenant – 1 unit e/w @ 28/1 with Bet 365

2. Soll – 1 unit e/w @ 22/1 with William Hill

3. Rocky Creek – 1 unit e/w @ 10/1 with Sportingbet

Royal Ascot – Day 1 Preview